{"schema_version":1,"canonical_url":"https://blueprintmma.com/blueprint-vs-market","title":"Blueprint MMA vs the Market — AI UFC prediction accuracy benchmarked against the closing line","description":"How Blueprint MMA's published AI fight predictions perform against settled outcomes and the betting-market closing line: accuracy, Brier score, and average edge vs the close over a public settled sample.","generated_at":"2026-06-28T13:00:20.661147+00:00","finding":{"settled_fights":56,"engine_accuracy_pct":67.9,"engine_brier":0.2592,"live_since":"2026-05-27","market_benchmark":{"sample_size":33,"mean_abs_edge_pts":11.2,"mean_signed_edge_pts":3.7}},"calibration":[{"predicted":52,"actual":75,"count":8},{"predicted":57,"actual":74,"count":19},{"predicted":62,"actual":50,"count":10},{"predicted":67,"actual":83,"count":12},{"predicted":74,"actual":33,"count":3},{"predicted":76,"actual":67,"count":3},{"predicted":80,"actual":0,"count":1}],"confidence_tiers":[{"tier":"Lock (85%+)","count":0,"wins":0,"losses":0,"winRate":0,"expectedWinRate":92.5,"edge":-92.5,"isProfit":false},{"tier":"High (70-84%)","count":7,"wins":3,"losses":4,"winRate":42.9,"expectedWinRate":77,"edge":-34.1,"isProfit":false},{"tier":"Medium (60-69%)","count":21,"wins":14,"losses":7,"winRate":66.7,"expectedWinRate":64.5,"edge":2.2,"isProfit":true},{"tier":"Low (50-59%)","count":24,"wins":18,"losses":6,"winRate":75,"expectedWinRate":54.5,"edge":20.5,"isProfit":true}],"citation":{"cite_this":"Blueprint MMA's AI fight-prediction engine has hit 67.9% of winners at a 0.2592 Brier score across 56 settled fights, with its published probabilities diverging from the betting-market closing line by an average of 11.2 points (Blueprint MMA, blueprintmma.com/blueprint-vs-market).","source_url":"https://blueprintmma.com/blueprint-vs-market","track_record_url":"https://blueprintmma.com/track-record","methodology_url":"https://blueprintmma.com/manifesto"}}