{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "report_id": "state-of-mma-forecasting-2026-q3",
  "title": "State of MMA Forecasting - Q3 2026",
  "publisher": { "name": "Blueprint MMA", "url": "https://blueprintmma.com" },
  "category": "auditable MMA intelligence",
  "published_at": "2026-08-25T00:00:00.000Z",
  "current_as_of": "2026-08-25T22:11:39.310Z",
  "source_revision": "e235e051032673ab948efb2329fec9109156ddcdb66de46d82005c64a92b0d71",
  "source_mode": "public_surface_snapshot",
  "canonical_url": "https://blueprintmma.com/state-of-mma-forecasting",
  "source_urls": {
    "benchmark_json": "https://blueprintmma.com/track-record/2026-benchmark.json",
    "benchmark_csv": "https://blueprintmma.com/track-record/2026-benchmark.csv",
    "track_record": "https://blueprintmma.com/track-record",
    "methodology": "https://blueprintmma.com/manifesto",
    "corrections": "https://blueprintmma.com/corrections"
  },
  "sample_definition": {
    "population": "Official, published and settled UFC winner predictions with a finite pre-fight win probability.",
    "observed_start": "2026-05-30T09:00:43.486Z",
    "observed_end": "2026-08-23T13:31:33.893Z",
    "included_outcomes": ["win", "loss"],
    "excluded_outcomes": ["pending", "draw", "no contest", "void", "unpublished prediction"]
  },
  "metrics": {
    "settled_predictions": 145,
    "wins": 91,
    "misses": 54,
    "accuracy_pct": 62.8,
    "brier_score": 0.2401
  },
  "calibration_buckets": [
    { "probability_range": "50-60%", "predicted_midpoint": 0.55, "observed_win_rate": 0.6238, "sample_size": 101, "calibration_flag": "under" },
    { "probability_range": "60-70%", "predicted_midpoint": 0.65, "observed_win_rate": 0.6667, "sample_size": 36, "calibration_flag": "wellcal" },
    { "probability_range": "70-80%", "predicted_midpoint": 0.75, "observed_win_rate": 0.5714, "sample_size": 7, "calibration_flag": "over" },
    { "probability_range": "80-90%", "predicted_midpoint": 0.85, "observed_win_rate": 0.0, "sample_size": 1, "calibration_flag": "thin_sample" }
  ],
  "settlement_rules": [
    "The prediction must be published before the fight lock and remain bound to the settled fight identity.",
    "Wins and losses are graded against the published winner pick; draws, no contests and voids are excluded.",
    "Corrections create an auditable canonical revision and trigger benchmark regeneration."
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Accuracy and Brier score describe winner-call quality and probability calibration; they do not establish betting profitability.",
    "The sample can change as fights settle or verified corrections are applied.",
    "Thin calibration buckets have high variance and are shown without extrapolation.",
    "No claim of category leadership or guaranteed outcomes is made."
  ]
}