{"schema_version":1,"name":"2026 UFC Prediction Accuracy and Calibration Benchmark","type":"ufc_prediction_accuracy_benchmark","canonical_url":"https://blueprintmma.com/track-record#2026-ufc-prediction-benchmark","generated_at":"2026-09-11T17:15:55.613+00:00","source_revision":"c2cb52d3a1d22de9b9d8d1407b7fce6b002986be1f005a5456100f2d2cf9faa8","source_mode":"public_surface_snapshot","author":{"type":"Organization","name":"Blueprint MMA","url":"https://blueprintmma.com"},"creator":{"type":"SoftwareApplication","name":"The Oracle","description":"Blueprint MMA's automated UFC prediction engine."},"disclosure":"Generated automatically by The Oracle. No individual human reviews each prediction before publication.","sample_definition":{"population":"Official, published and settled UFC winner predictions with a finite pre-fight win probability.","included_outcomes":["win","loss"],"excluded_outcomes":["pending","draw","no contest","void","unpublished prediction"],"time_window":{"requested_start":"2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","requested_end":"2026-12-31T23:59:59.999Z","observed_start":"2026-05-30T09:00:43.486Z","observed_end":"2026-09-08T16:36:16.727Z"}},"metrics":{"settled_predictions":172,"wins":106,"misses":66,"accuracy_pct":61.6,"brier_score":0.2406},"calibration_buckets":[{"probability_range":"50–60%","predicted_midpoint":0.55,"observed_win_rate":0.6033,"sample_size":121,"calibration_flag":"under"},{"probability_range":"60–70%","predicted_midpoint":0.65,"observed_win_rate":0.6667,"sample_size":39,"calibration_flag":"wellcal"},{"probability_range":"70–80%","predicted_midpoint":0.75,"observed_win_rate":0.6364,"sample_size":11,"calibration_flag":"over"},{"probability_range":"80–90%","predicted_midpoint":0.85,"observed_win_rate":0,"sample_size":1,"calibration_flag":"wellcal"}],"engine_vs_market":{"liveSince":"2026-05-27","computedAt":"2026-08-31T12:03:31.988+00:00","sampleSize":107,"engineBrier":0.2473,"marketBenchmark":{"sampleSize":141,"meanAbsEdgePts":13.6,"meanSignedEdgePts":0.7},"engineAccuracyPct":65.4},"settlement_rules":["The prediction must be published before the fight lock and remain bound to the settled fight identity.","Wins and losses are graded against the published winner pick; draws, no contests and voids are excluded.","Corrections create an auditable canonical revision and trigger benchmark regeneration."],"limitations":["Accuracy and Brier score describe winner-call quality and probability calibration; they do not establish betting profitability.","The sample can change as fights settle or verified corrections are applied.","Engine-versus-market comparisons are reported only when a timestamped, identity-matched market cohort is available."],"results":{"wins":[{"fight_id":"de19c15a-0600-4aa9-b06a-7605b71ecb09","matchup":"Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse","pick":"Salahdine Parnasse","actual_winner":"Salahdine Parnasse","win_probability_pct":53.7969,"result":"win","settled_at":"2026-09-08T16:36:16.727Z","model_version":null},{"fight_id":"36af1d6b-cf04-462a-bdc9-088559106cf8","matchup":"Michael Page 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