{"name":"The Oracle AI Fight Prediction Model: 2024 Accuracy Report","type":"track_record_report","slug":"oracle-ai-fight-prediction-accuracy-report-2024","canonical_url":"https://blueprintmma.com/track-record/oracle-ai-fight-prediction-accuracy-report-2024","structured_url":"https://blueprintmma.com/track-record/oracle-ai-fight-prediction-accuracy-report-2024/summary.json","report_type":"overall","filter_key":null,"scope":{"report_type":"overall","filter_key":null,"included_promotions":["UFC"],"classification":"headline","data_environment":"mature","label":"Headline Track Record","description":"Current headline proof set (UFC only)."},"summary":"The Oracle AI Fight Prediction Model: 2024 Accuracy Report is a public headline track record Oracle audit. Current headline proof set (UFC only). Accuracy is 61.9%. Sample size is 155 settled picks. Brier score is 0.2531.","published_at":"2026-03-04T14:49:00.789+00:00","updated_at":"2026-03-04T14:49:01.23341+00:00","metrics":{"settled_predictions":155,"correct_calls":96,"accuracy":61.9,"brier_score":0.2531,"method_accuracy":51.1,"pending":0,"draws":1,"no_contests":3},"confidence_tier_breakdown":[{"tier":"Lock (85%+)","sample_size":0,"win_rate":0,"expected_win_rate":92.5,"edge":-92.5,"is_profitable":false},{"tier":"High (70-84%)","sample_size":37,"win_rate":54.1,"expected_win_rate":77,"edge":-22.9,"is_profitable":false},{"tier":"Medium (60-69%)","sample_size":45,"win_rate":73.3,"expected_win_rate":64.5,"edge":8.8,"is_profitable":true},{"tier":"Low (50-59%)","sample_size":67,"win_rate":59.7,"expected_win_rate":54.5,"edge":5.2,"is_profitable":true}],"calibration_snapshot":[{"predicted":1,"actual":50,"sample_size":4},{"predicted":52,"actual":60,"sample_size":47},{"predicted":57,"actual":62,"sample_size":21},{"predicted":62,"actual":70,"sample_size":23},{"predicted":68,"actual":74,"sample_size":23},{"predicted":71,"actual":70,"sample_size":10},{"predicted":77,"actual":44,"sample_size":25},{"predicted":82,"actual":100,"sample_size":2}],"machine_readable_sources":{"overall":"https://blueprintmma.com/track-record/overall.json","reports":"https://blueprintmma.com/track-record/reports.json","results":"https://blueprintmma.com/track-record/results.json","html":"https://blueprintmma.com/track-record/oracle-ai-fight-prediction-accuracy-report-2024"}}