{"name":"Oracle Prediction Track Record - UFC Headline Audit","type":"track_record_report","slug":"oracle-prediction-track-record","canonical_url":"https://blueprintmma.com/track-record/oracle-prediction-track-record","structured_url":"https://blueprintmma.com/track-record/oracle-prediction-track-record/summary.json","report_type":"overall","filter_key":null,"scope":{"report_type":"overall","filter_key":null,"included_promotions":["UFC"],"classification":"headline","data_environment":"mature","label":"Headline Track Record","description":"Current headline proof set (UFC only)."},"summary":"Oracle Prediction Track Record - UFC Headline Audit is a public headline track record Oracle audit. Current headline proof set (UFC only). Accuracy is 68.8%. Sample size is 96 settled picks. Brier score is 0.2338.","published_at":"2026-07-19T13:00:21.115+00:00","updated_at":"2026-07-19T13:00:39.016004+00:00","metrics":{"settled_predictions":96,"correct_calls":66,"accuracy":68.8,"brier_score":0.2338,"method_accuracy":46.9,"pending":0,"draws":1,"no_contests":11},"confidence_tier_breakdown":[{"tier":"Lock (85%+)","sample_size":0,"win_rate":0,"expected_win_rate":92.5,"edge":-92.5,"is_profitable":false},{"tier":"High (70-84%)","sample_size":3,"win_rate":66.7,"expected_win_rate":77,"edge":-10.3,"is_profitable":false},{"tier":"Medium (60-69%)","sample_size":23,"win_rate":78.3,"expected_win_rate":64.5,"edge":13.8,"is_profitable":true},{"tier":"Low (50-59%)","sample_size":60,"win_rate":68.3,"expected_win_rate":54.5,"edge":13.8,"is_profitable":true}],"calibration_snapshot":[{"predicted":0,"actual":50,"sample_size":10},{"predicted":53,"actual":72,"sample_size":32},{"predicted":57,"actual":64,"sample_size":28},{"predicted":62,"actual":69,"sample_size":16},{"predicted":67,"actual":100,"sample_size":7},{"predicted":74,"actual":50,"sample_size":2},{"predicted":77,"actual":100,"sample_size":1}],"machine_readable_sources":{"overall":"https://blueprintmma.com/track-record/overall.json","reports":"https://blueprintmma.com/track-record/reports.json","results":"https://blueprintmma.com/track-record/results.json","html":"https://blueprintmma.com/track-record/oracle-prediction-track-record"}}