Aoriqileng vs Cody Haddon, UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo prediction and deep analysis
Aoriqileng/Cody Haddon
Winner Committee
Thirty-three specialists answer distinct winner-only questions. Eligible evidence is renormalized only inside its original lane.
Fight-State Projection
These are distributions of eligible committee signal mass—not invented percentages of fight time.
Conditional Method Model
Each row is conditional on that fighter already winning; every fighter row sums to 100%.
Conditional Round Model
Round-event mass is derived from survival-conditioned hazards. The final scheduled round is absorbing.
Probability Reconciliation
The exact-outcome grid preserves both winner marginals and sums to 100%. Decision branches have no round.
Output Selection
The winner and every outcome label come from one immutable reconciled distribution. Oversight may widen uncertainty, never move the point forecast.
Key Takeaways
- The War Room Committee picks Cody Haddon (68% win probability).
- Aoriqileng path. "Volume pace to decision": Establish jab rhythm in first 90 seconds
- Cody Haddon path. "Early finishing sequence": Close distance with single power entries
- Risk: Haddon injury recurrence
- Risk: Aoriqileng chin exposure
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Aoriqileng vs Cody Haddon?
Cody Haddon won. Blueprint MMA's pre-fight pick was Cody Haddon.
Who wins Aoriqileng vs Cody Haddon?
Blueprint MMA's War Room Committee picks Cody Haddon with a 68% win probability.
What could change the outcome of Aoriqileng vs Cody Haddon?
Haddon injury recurrence: The undisclosed withdrawal from a scheduled 2025 bout introduces uncertainty about structural readiness under fire. Aoriqileng chin exposure: His lone career KO loss remains the only verified crack in his durability; a clean Haddon connection could exploit it. Late-round conditioning collapse: If Haddon pushes a pace beyond his theoretical deep-water capacity, his finishing pathways narrow dramatically.
How does Blueprint MMA make this prediction?
Blueprint MMA validates and freezes the fight data, then runs 68 Kimi K2.6 agent executions: 33 Winner, 10 Method, 20 Timing, and 5 non-voting Oversight. Kimi K2.6 is the only inference model; LangGraph only orchestrates stage order and state. Winner agents fix the point probability first, Method and Timing agents fill conditional branches without reopening it, and Oversight audits without voting. The public probability is held to a sane 5-95% range and logged before release. Published winner probabilities are AI-only. Market prices may be shown for benchmarking, CLV, and workflow context, but they do not select, rank, or alter the published forecast. If the direct pipeline cannot return a valid read, the forecast is held. Methodology is documented at https://blueprintmma.com/manifesto and accuracy is tracked publicly at https://blueprintmma.com/track-record.