VERIFIED MMA
PREDICTION TRACK
RECORD.
Blueprint MMA timestamps each public AI-only winner probability before the fight begins, then grades it against the settled outcome. This scoreboard leads with winner accuracy and the complete public result ledger; probability calibration is reported in the technical section below.
Record: Kimi engine prediction ledger · 96 calls
Every prediction is published to the public archive before the opening bell of its bout. Forecasts are immutable after publication. Past performance does not guarantee future results; forecasts are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
View Machine-Readable Archive →A Kimi K2.6 / LangGraph committee runs 33 voting specialists across 7 weighted categories plus 5 non-voting oversight agents, then combines the fixed-weight votes into one market-independent probability and method read. The oversight layer audits evidence quality, correlation, calibration, disagreement, and uncertainty without changing the committee vote.
Every probability is graded against historical outcomes in public. Confidence is earned, not estimated.
Every forecast locks to the public archive before its bout begins. No hindsight. No edits.
When We Say 65%, It Happens 65%
The calibration curve is the single most honest chart a forecaster can publish. Dots on the diagonal mean calibration is clean. Dots below mean overconfidence. Dots above mean we should bet ourselves more.
Strengths & Weaknesses, Itemized
| Segment | N | Accuracy | Brier | ROI @ −110 | Calibration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FlyweightLow N | 10 | 60.0% | 0.2416 | +14.5% | Well Calibrated |
| BantamweightLow N | 13 | 76.9% | 0.2067 | +46.9% | Underconfident |
| FeatherweightLow N | 13 | 53.8% | 0.2771 | +2.8% | Overconfident |
| LightweightLow N | 11 | 45.5% | 0.2540 | -13.2% | Overconfident |
| WelterweightLow N | 10 | 90.0% | 0.1882 | +71.8% | Underconfident |
| MiddleweightLow N | 12 | 75.0% | 0.2343 | +43.2% | Underconfident |
| Light HeavyweightLow N | 9 | 77.8% | 0.2154 | +48.5% | Underconfident |
| HeavyweightLow N | 7 | 71.4% | 0.2737 | +36.4% | Underconfident |
| Women's StrawweightLow N | 4 | 75.0% | 0.2420 | +43.2% | Underconfident |
| Women's FlyweightLow N | 3 | 100.0% | 0.1825 | +90.9% | Underconfident |
| Women's BantamweightLow N | 3 | 66.7% | 0.2098 | +27.3% | Underconfident |
Rows dimmed where N < 20. Small samples carry high variance and aren't yet structural signal.
// Note - Strongest: Women's Flyweight, 100.0% over 3 calls. Weakest: Lightweight, 45.5% over 11 calls. Samples are thin in this view, read as provisional.
Prediction Log
Settled calls show full outcomes. Pending Kimi/LangGraph calls appear before settlement, with pick details locked for non-paying visitors.
| Date | Event | Matchup · Pick | Method | Round | Win Prob | Confidence | Outcome | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUL 26 | UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov Fight Night | ▸Rizvan Kuniev vs. Tyrell Fortune UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov | Decision→ KO/TKO | Result R3 | 50.7% | Slight | HIT | |
| JUL 26 | UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov Fight Night | ▸Saygid Izagakhmaev vs. Abubakar Vagaev ✗ Abubakar Vagaev won UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov | Submission→ Decision | R2 → R3 | 63.0% | Moderate | MISS | |
| JUL 26 | UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov Fight Night | ▸Valter Walker vs. Thomas Petersen UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov | Submission✓ | R1 ✓ | 64.5% | Moderate | HIT | |
| JUL 26 | UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov Fight Night | ▸Steve Erceg vs. Ramazan Temirov ✗ Ramazan Temirov won UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov | Decision→ KO/TKO | Result R1 | 55.3% | Slight | MISS | |
| JUL 26 | UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov Fight Night | ▸Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov | Decision→ KO/TKO | Result R5 | 52.7% | Slight | HIT | |
| JUL 26 | UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov Fight Night | ▸Muhammad Said vs. Dustin Jacoby UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov | KO/TKO✓ | R1 → R2 | 56.3% | Slight | HIT | |
| JUL 26 | UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov Fight Night | ▸Magomed Tuchalov vs. Brendson Ribeiro UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov | KO/TKO→ Decision | R1 → R3 | 70.1% | High | HIT | |
| JUL 26 | UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov Fight Night | ▸Sam Patterson vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov | KO/TKO✓ | R1 → R2 | 54.2% | Slight | HIT | |
| JUL 26 | UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov Fight Night | ▸Damian Rzepecki vs. Magomed Zaynukov ✗ Magomed Zaynukov won UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov | Submission→ Decision | R2 → R3 | 60.4% | Moderate | MISS | |
| JUL 26 | UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov Fight Night | ▸Axel Sola vs. Ismael Bonfim UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov | KO/TKO→ Submission | R2 → R1 | 59.5% | Moderate | HIT |