EVERY OFFICIAL PICK
PUBLISHED FIRST
GRADED HERE.
Blueprint MMA timestamps every official winner and win probability before the fight begins, then grades it against the settled outcome. This scoreboard leads with winner accuracy and the complete public result list. Start with the settled sample, wins, misses, accuracy, and how close the published percentages were. Deeper scoring details remain available below.
257 official picks across recorded engine versions
Public, row-level proof
2026 official UFC picks: wins, misses, and percentage quality
This benchmark includes 257 official UFC winner picks that were published before the fight and have settled in 2026: 151 wins and 106 misses. Winner accuracy is 58.8%. The win-chance score is 0.2427; lower means the published percentages were closer to the outcomes.
The sample excludes pending picks, draws, no contests, voids, and unpublished forecasts. Picks settled from May 30 to July 19, 2026 predate the proof ledger: they are graded from the forecast or article that was public before the fight and have no proof record. Winner accuracy and percentage quality do not establish betting profitability, and Blueprint MMA makes no profit guarantee.
The current Blueprint-versus-market comparison contains 107 settled picks and was updated Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC.
Every official pick is added to the public record before its fight begins. The original pick cannot be quietly edited afterward. Two groups are graded differently. Picks from May 30 to July 19, 2026 are graded from the forecast or article that was public before each fight; they have no proof record, and some of those cards had no pick lock. The July 25, 2026 card is graded from the picks that were public before its scheduled lock, which never ran. See the correction. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Picks are for information and entertainment only.
Download Public Data →Four AI advocates, two for each fighter, argue from the same verified evidence, and two independent adjudicators weigh all four cases. The debate never sees betting odds. The published pick and confidence blend that debate with a statistical baseline and the betting market, the debate’s own lean is shown when it differs, and the record compares the raw debate probability with the market.
The winner and win probability are published together, so you can judge both the call and whether the confidence made sense.
After the event, every official pick becomes a win, miss, or clearly labeled unscored result. Losses stay visible.
Where Blueprint Has Been Stronger or Weaker
Use the sample size beside each row. Small groups can swing sharply and should not be treated as a promise about the next fight.
| Segment | N | Accuracy | Win-Chance Score | Percentage Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flyweight | 25 | 60.0% | 0.2092 | Percentages Matched |
| Bantamweight | 30 | 56.7% | 0.2663 | Percentages Matched |
| Featherweight | 31 | 67.7% | 0.2370 | Too Cautious |
| Lightweight | 33 | 54.5% | 0.2451 | Percentages Matched |
| Welterweight | 24 | 50.0% | 0.2397 | Too Confident |
| Middleweight | 31 | 64.5% | 0.2302 | Too Cautious |
| Light Heavyweight | 22 | 63.6% | 0.2409 | Percentages Matched |
| Heavyweight | 24 | 58.3% | 0.2705 | Percentages Matched |
| Women's StrawweightFew picks | 14 | 57.1% | 0.2404 | Percentages Matched |
| Women's FlyweightFew picks | 9 | 66.7% | 0.2399 | Collecting |
| Women's BantamweightFew picks | 8 | 37.5% | 0.2410 | Collecting |
Rows marked Few picks have fewer than 20 settled picks. Small samples carry high variance and aren't yet structural signal.
Accuracy and percentage quality are not betting returns. Most picks are favorites priced well below even money, so hit rate alone says nothing about profit. See Blueprint vs Market for the comparison against closing prices.
Where Blueprint is weak, against its own average and the closing line →
Return at real prices
One unit on every current AI-debate pick, settled at real sportsbook prices with the bookmaker margin included. Losses count in full. This is a record, not a promise of profit.
At the closing line
-5.80u
ROI -8.0% · 73 picks with a two-book close
At the price saved with each pick
-7.00u
ROI -18.4% · 38 picks
Closing-line value
+0.23 pts
Beat the close on 42.1% · 38 picks
Do the percentages mean what they say?
Every settled official pick, grouped by its published win chance. A dot on the dashed line means picks stated at that chance won that often. Below the line, the stated chances were too high; above it, too low. Hollow dots have fewer than 20 picks.
| Band | Picks | Stated | Won | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 160 | 54.6% | 56.3% | +1.6 pts |
| 60–70% | 76 | 64.0% | 61.8% | -2.2 pts |
| 70–80%Few picks | 18 | 74.8% | 72.2% | -2.6 pts |
| 80–90%Few picks | 3 | 84.1% | 33.3% | -50.8 pts |
// Note - Strongest: Featherweight, 67.7% over 31 calls. Weakest: Welterweight, 50.0% over 24 calls.
Latest Results
Wins and misses count toward accuracy. Voids and late or incomplete records stay visible but unscored. Upcoming full breakdowns remain locked unless your access includes them. Every settled pick is in the proof archive and the benchmark CSV.
Every settled pick →Download the CSV
| Date | Event | Matchup · Pick | Method | Round | Win Probability | Confidence | Outcome | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OCT 31 | UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan Fight Night | ▸Francis Marshall vs. Dakota Hope Free pick OCT 31 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan | Locked | Locked | 63.8% | Locked | UPCOMING | |
| OCT 31 | UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan Fight Night | ▸Jacobe Smith vs. Randy Brown Free pick OCT 31 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan | Locked | Locked | 64.8% | Locked | UPCOMING | |
| OCT 31 | UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan Fight Night | ▸Piera Rodriguez vs. Talita Alencar Free pick OCT 31 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan | Locked | Locked | 67.9% | Locked | UPCOMING | |
| OCT 31 | UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan Fight Night | ▸Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov Free pick OCT 31 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan | Locked | Locked | 52.4% | Locked | UPCOMING | |
| OCT 31 | UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan Fight Night | ▸Lucia Szabova vs. Tainara Lisboa Free pick OCT 31 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan | Locked | Locked | 75.2% | Locked | UPCOMING | |
| OCT 31 | UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan Fight Night | ▸Joe Kropschot vs. Nick Klein Free pick OCT 31 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan | Locked | Locked | 60.5% | Locked | UPCOMING | |
| OCT 31 | UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan Fight Night | ▸Tom Nolan vs. Renato Moicano Blueprint pick OCT 31 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan | Decision | N/A | 51.0% | - | UPCOMING | |
| OCT 31 | UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan Fight Night | ▸Rodrigo Sezinando vs. Theodor Berggren Free pick OCT 31 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan | Locked | Locked | 57.2% | Locked | UPCOMING | |
| OCT 31 | UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan Fight Night | ▸Zachary Reese vs. Mickey Gall Free pick OCT 31 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan | Locked | Locked | 67.7% | Locked | UPCOMING | |
| OCT 31 | UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan Fight Night | ▸Ode Osbourne vs. Cody Durden Free pick OCT 31 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan | Locked | Locked | 53.5% | Locked | UPCOMING | |
| OCT 31 | UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan Fight Night | ▸Luana Santos vs. Yana Santos Free pick OCT 31 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan | Locked | Locked | 63.9% | Locked | UPCOMING | |
| OCT 31 | UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan Fight Night | ▸JeongYeong Lee vs. Julian Erosa Free pick OCT 31 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan | Locked | Locked | 53.9% | Locked | UPCOMING | |
| OCT 27 | UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh Fight Night | ▸Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh Void · bout did not produce a result OCT 27 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh | Decision | N/A | 0.0% | Slight | VOID | |
| OCT 24 | UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev PPV | ▸Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev OCT 24 · UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev | Decision→ KO/TKO | Result R2 | 51.0% | Slight | WIN | |
| OCT 24 | UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev PPV | ▸Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili OCT 24 · UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev | Decision✓ | Result R5 | 57.2% | Slight | WIN | |
| OCT 24 | UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev PPV | ▸Ramazan Temirov vs. Lone'er Kavanagh ✗ Lone'er Kavanagh won OCT 24 · UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev | Decision→ KO/TKO | Result R1 | 52.3% | Slight | MISS | |
| OCT 24 | UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev PPV | ▸Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev OCT 24 · UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev | Decision✓ | Result R3 | 61.3% | Moderate | WIN | |
| OCT 24 | UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev PPV | ▸Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes ✗ Dominick Reyes won OCT 24 · UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev | KO/TKO→ KO/TKO | R1 → R1 | 60.3% | Moderate | MISS | |
| OCT 24 | UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev PPV | ▸Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev vs. Nikita Krylov OCT 24 · UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev | KO/TKO✓ | R1 ✓ | 72.7% | High | WIN | |
| OCT 24 | UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev PPV | ▸Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev OCT 24 · UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev | Decision✓ | Result R3 | 53.4% | Slight | WIN | |
| OCT 24 | UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev PPV | ▸Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita OCT 24 · UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev | Decision→ KO/TKO | Result R1 | 57.4% | Slight | WIN | |
| OCT 24 | UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev PPV | ▸Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston OCT 24 · UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev | Decision→ Submission | Result R1 | 56.9% | Slight | WIN | |
| OCT 24 | UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev PPV | ▸Asaf Chopurov vs. Colby Thicknesse ✗ Colby Thicknesse won OCT 24 · UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev | Decision→ Decision | Result R3 | 73.0% | High | MISS | |
| OCT 24 | UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev PPV | ▸Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun OCT 24 · UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev | Decision✓ | Result R3 | 55.4% | Slight | WIN | |
| OCT 24 | UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev PPV | ▸Daniel Santos vs. Bolaji Oki OCT 24 · UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev | Decision✓ | Result R3 | 51.0% | Slight | WIN |