All settled picks
257
For entertainment only. MMA analysis only, not financial advice.
Official prediction archive
Published UFC picks, preserved.
Every official forecast is kept with its original publication context and receipt. 12 picks are published now. Winner and win probability are free. The public record currently includes 257 settled official picks and 58.8% winner accuracy. Its win-chance score is 0.2427; a lower score means the percentages were closer to what happened.
How publication and source checks work
Published by Blueprint MMA and generated by The Oracle on Oct 27, 2026. Generated automatically by The Oracle. No individual human reviews each prediction before publication.
Recorded engine version: recorded on each fight page; latest source cutoff Oct 27, 2026, 1:49 PM UTC. Identity, event, source cutoff, pre-fight publication deadline, canonical URL, payload consistency, and any optional reference-line mapping are checked automatically before publication. Inputs can be incomplete or change after the cutoff; winner accuracy does not describe wagering outcomes or guarantee returns. Review the methodology and limitations and correction policy.
Data download: prediction archive as JSON. Page data generated Oct 27, 2026, 9:16 PM UTC.
Card status
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
Oct 31, 2026 · 12 of 12 official picks published
Accuracy
58.8%
Win-chance score (lower is better)
0.2427
Misses included
Yes
As of
Oct 27, 2026
Official published picks
Published picks for UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
| Fight | Blueprint pick | Win probability | Strength | Published | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Oct 31, 2026 | |||||
| Dakota Hope vs Francis Marshall | Francis Marshall | 64% | Clearer lean | Oct 27, 2026, 1:49 PM UTC | Preview full breakdown → |
| Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith | Jacobe Smith | 65% | Clearer lean | Oct 27, 2026, 1:24 PM UTC | Preview full breakdown → |
| Piera Rodriguez vs Talita Alencar | Piera Rodriguez | 68% | Clearer lean | Oct 26, 2026, 4:19 AM UTC | Preview full breakdown → |
| Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Farman Hasanov | Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani | 52% | Slight lean | Oct 26, 2026, 4:14 AM UTC | Preview full breakdown → |
| Lucia Szabova vs Tainara Lisboa | Lucia Szabova | 75% | Clearer lean | Oct 26, 2026, 4:09 AM UTC | Preview full breakdown → |
| Nick Klein vs Joe Kropschot | Joe Kropschot | 61% | Clearer lean | Oct 26, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC | Preview full breakdown → |
| Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan | Tom Nolan | 51% | Near coin flip | Oct 26, 2026, 3:49 AM UTC | Preview full breakdown → |
| Theodor Berggren vs Rodrigo Sezinando | Rodrigo Sezinando | 57% | Clearer lean | Oct 26, 2026, 3:44 AM UTC | Preview full breakdown → |
| Mickey Gall vs Zachary Reese | Zachary Reese | 68% | Clearer lean | Oct 26, 2026, 3:39 AM UTC | Preview full breakdown → |
| Ode Osbourne vs Cody Durden | Ode Osbourne | 53% | Slight lean | Oct 26, 2026, 3:34 AM UTC | Preview full breakdown → |
| Yana Santos vs Luana Santos | Luana Santos | 64% | Clearer lean | Oct 26, 2026, 3:29 AM UTC | Preview full breakdown → |
| Julian Erosa vs JeongYeong Lee | JeongYeong Lee | 54% | Slight lean | Oct 26, 2026, 3:24 AM UTC | Preview full breakdown → |
Advanced: dated model-era statistics
Picks logged since May 27, 2026: 107 settled · 64.5% winner accuracy · 0.2475 Brier · mean absolute difference from the market line saved with each pick 13.6 points (n=141). This narrower cohort is not the canonical all-settled proof snapshot and does not establish betting performance. Open the full dated methodology.
Recent Settled Results
Recent official results
Compare a recent sample of Blueprint’s published picks with what happened. The summary above counts settled UFC fights only.
| Fight | Blueprint Pick | Outcome | Actual Winner | Confidence | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev Featherweight | Alexander Volkanovski Decision | Correct | Alexander Volkanovski KO/TKO | 51% | Oct 24, 2026 |
| Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili Bantamweight | Petr Yan Decision | Correct | Petr Yan Decision | 57.2% | Oct 24, 2026 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov flyweight | Ramazan Temirov Decision | Miss | Lone'er Kavanagh KO/TKO | 52.3% | Oct 24, 2026 |
| Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev Heavyweight | Alexander Volkov Decision | Correct | Alexander Volkov Decision | 61.3% | Oct 24, 2026 |
| Azamat Murzakanov vs Dominick Reyes light heavyweight | Azamat Murzakanov KO/TKO | Miss | Dominick Reyes KO/TKO | 60.3% | Oct 24, 2026 |
| Nikita Krylov vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev Light Heavyweight | Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev KO/TKO | Correct | Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev KO/TKO | 72.7% | Oct 24, 2026 |
| Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev lightweight | Grant Dawson Decision | Correct | Grant Dawson Decision | 53.4% | Oct 24, 2026 |
| Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita featherweight | Aaron Pico Decision | Correct | Aaron Pico KO/TKO | 57.4% | Oct 24, 2026 |
Percentage Check
How close were Blueprint’s percentages?
A useful win probability should match reality over many fights. For example, picks published near 70% should win about seven times out of ten. Compare Blueprint’s published ranges with the actual results below.
Download the underlying season data: /track-record/overall.json
Results by published win-chance range
| Tier | Sample | Win Rate | Published chance | Calibration gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85%+ confidence | 1 | N/A | 92.5% | -92.5 pts |
| High (70-84%) | 20 | 70.0% | 77.0% | -7.0 pts |
| Medium (60-69%) | 76 | 61.8% | 64.5% | -2.7 pts |
| Low (50-59%) | 160 | 56.3% | 54.5% | +1.8 pts |
Published chance compared with results
Around 52% win probability80 fights
Published chance52.0%
How often those picks won51.0%
Around 57% win probability80 fights
Published chance57.0%
How often those picks won61.0%
Around 62% win probability47 fights
Published chance62.0%
How often those picks won64.0%
Around 67% win probability29 fights
Published chance67.0%
How often those picks won59.0%
Around 73% win probability10 fights
Published chance73.0%
How often those picks won70.0%
Around 77% win probability8 fights
Published chance77.0%
How often those picks won75.0%
Around 82% win probability2 fights
Published chance82.0%
How often those picks won50.0%
Around 89% win probability1 fights
Published chance89.0%
How often those picks wonN/A
How to judge the picks
Do not judge a prediction source by one winning card. Compare current picks with a visible history that includes the misses. Blueprint’s latest public UFC report is the complete Track Record. See How Blueprint Works for the research process and limitations. For matchup context, browse the fighter directory or compare two fighters.
One evidence packet per fight
Each matchup is checked through the same seven-part process. If a reliable source is missing, that part sits out instead of filling the gap with a guess.
Results are judged publicly
Every settled official pick remains visible as a win or a miss. The win-chance score also shows whether Blueprint’s percentages were appropriately confident.
Official and custom reports stay separate
This board contains only scheduled, pre-fight official picks. Current, future, and hypothetical Oracle reports are labeled custom and never added to the weekly record.
Citation and Editorial Signals
Authorship and Automation
Published by Blueprint MMA and generated by The Oracle. Generated automatically by The Oracle. No individual human reviews each prediction before publication. Updated Oct 27, 2026.
Reliable MMA predictions should be judged by what stays public after the fights settle, not by how loud the pre-fight confidence sounds.
Blueprint MMA
Proof Table
| Signal | Published measure | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Public accuracy signal | 58.8% | Every settled pick, win or miss, is listed on the public track record. |
| Calibration signal | 0.2427 | Measures how close the published percentages were to the results. Lower is better. |
| Published forecast archive | 224 public pages | Every forecast keeps its original page and timestamp after the fight. |
| Prediction dataset | 257 settled picks | Download the settled picks to check the record yourself. |
| Current schedule context | UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan | Oct 31, 2026 | Las Vegas, USA | The next card, with every published pick. |
Primary Sources
| Signal | Category | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Blueprint MMA Track Record | Public proof | Primary verification page for settled predictions, accuracy, and calibration context. |
| Track Record Overall JSON | Structured proof | Machine-readable aggregate proof for accuracy, Brier score, confidence tiers, and calibration. |
| Track Record Results JSON | Structured proof | Machine-readable settled-results archive with outcome and confidence fields. |
| Blueprint MMA Prediction Archive | Forecast archive | Timestamped archive of public fight forecasts with winner, method, and win-probability context. |
UFC prediction archive FAQ
What does the UFC prediction archive include?
It preserves timestamped official picks after publication, their forecast receipts, recent settled wins and misses, and a plain-language summary of the public record.
How can I verify the results behind these picks?
Open Track Record to see the settled sample, wins, misses, accuracy, and how close the published percentages were. Each fight page also keeps its original publication time.
Can I analyze a fight that is not on this card?
Yes. Use the Oracle Engine to choose two supported fighters and create a custom report for a current, future, or hypothetical matchup. Custom reports stay separate from the official record.
What should a visitor do after reviewing this page?
Use Schedule for the current card and publication status. Use this archive to verify what Blueprint published, when it was published, and how it settled.