Original Research · Updated Oct 27, 2026
Blueprint MMA vs the Market
Across 257 settled official picks, Blueprint selected 58.8% of winners. Its win-chance score is 0.2427, where lower means the percentages were closer to the results. Blueprint's published percentages differed from the market line saved with each pick by an average of 13.6 pts across 141 fights with a saved market line. A gap is a comparison, not proof of an advantage or profit. Every included pick was published before the fight and graded afterward.
Data download: Blueprint vs Market JSON
Results by published win-chance range
| Tier | Sample | Winner accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 85%+ confidence | 1 | 0% |
| High (70-84%) | 20 | 70% |
| Medium (60-69%) | 76 | 61.8% |
| Low (50-59%) | 160 | 56.3% |
See every settled pick and the deeper percentage-quality details on Track Record.
Citation-ready summary
Blueprint MMA's official picks have selected 58.8% of winners with a 0.2427 win-chance score across 257 settled fights. On fights with a market line saved alongside the pick, Blueprint's percentages differed from that line by an average of 13.6 points (Blueprint MMA, blueprintmma.com/blueprint-vs-market).
FAQ
How accurate is Blueprint MMA versus the betting market?
Across 257 settled fights, Blueprint picked 58.8% of winners. Its win-chance score was 0.2427; lower means the percentages were closer to the results. On the 141 fights with a market line saved alongside the pick, Blueprint's percentages differed from that line by an average of 13.6 points.
Why compare against the betting market?
The betting market is the strongest public estimate of each fight. Comparing Blueprint with the line saved when the pick was published shows where the two disagree. A difference does not prove that either side is correct or profitable.
Is this number cherry-picked?
No. Every eligible official pick is published before the fight and graded on the public Track Record after it settles. This comparison uses that same settled record rather than selecting only winning cards.