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Whale Betting Desk

What Whale shows · a settled card

The desk's final call on every fight at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

2 BETs and 12 PASSES: the desk only bets when the best available price clears its margin, and every decision is graded against the result and the close. Current cards are Whale-only.

Decision receipts

Best Bets History

Every v3 BET and PASS remains visible with its price, probability, evidence check, and verified result.

Event ledger

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Oct 24, 2026

Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov

Asaf Chopurov -549

Pass
Decision
PASS
Conservative chance
75.4%
Position
No position
Target price
-274 or better
Markets checked
28
Recorded
Oct 24, 2026, 11:31 AM UTC

Betway · checked Oct 24, 2026, 11:30 AM UTC

Why Blueprint passed: The official pick lacks a verified bilateral discriminator for this side.

Decision and result provenance
Contract
whale_best_bet.v3
Published engine
gpt-6.1-sol · 1
Publication
d974ac59-c65e-56f7-8e26-85f403e4a3dc
Forecast fingerprint
6ec643606edb9ddeb6e5334b481df238df8e08602834ee7a1b912d475f60eb61
Calibration
best_bet_calibration.v3.pooled_fallback
Rejected by
winner_discriminator_missing, small_ufc_sample_shrink, sparse_comparable_evidence_shrink, competition_transition_shrink, history_informed_shrink, evidence_gate_failed, conservative_ev_below_3pct, second_book_ev_non_positive, conservative_edge_below_2_5pct, kelly_zero
Recorded snapshot
69f2042572a263dddc65d2e7c5e1769ea29d71bfb97ac355a9b7a6950bbeb73f

Lone'er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov

Fight goes the distance +133

Lost
Decision
BET
Conservative chance
44.8%
Conservative EV
+4.4%
Target price
+130 or better
Markets checked
28
Recorded
Oct 24, 2026, 11:31 AM UTC

BetRivers · checked Oct 24, 2026, 11:31 AM UTC

Decision and result provenance
Contract
whale_best_bet.v3
Published engine
gpt-6.1-sol · 1
Publication
ea163b62-c7aa-55a5-8aef-339811ada419
Forecast fingerprint
3c657cabc101fcd8a558a100155a62e4dbc87274573ca55edfd049bf7fe0dfbf
Calibration
best_bet_calibration.v3.pooled_fallback
Rejected by
No rejection gates
Recorded snapshot
f12eb6227aefacca580c2912ed12259d26b726358820679db0a89b2a151fddbc
Canonical result revision
2 · b316c98c-6db8-4f62-926b-68193e6812d4
Verified result source
5b09aff2-631f-4ecf-a03d-10c162cad640

Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev

Alexander Volkov -120

Pass
Decision
PASS
Conservative chance
53.2%
Position
No position
Target price
-107 or better
Markets checked
28
Recorded
Oct 24, 2026, 11:31 AM UTC

Betway · checked Oct 24, 2026, 11:30 AM UTC

Why Blueprint passed: A material evidence conflict remains unresolved.

Decision and result provenance
Contract
whale_best_bet.v3
Published engine
gpt-6.1-sol · 1
Publication
18e71f2a-2cff-571d-8101-722ad93c4988
Forecast fingerprint
8909b842c3166052cb2bd90e428a8888e613704d9e50ec0d0c0545cef0bfc280
Calibration
best_bet_calibration.v3.pooled_fallback
Rejected by
unresolved_conflict_shrink, conservative_ev_below_3pct, second_book_ev_non_positive, conservative_edge_below_2_5pct, kelly_zero
Recorded snapshot
55c3795b029512ec7f88f9b9c1d772f1528d61948f2a1a7f3353297b40ae6670

Iasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle Caliari

Nicolle Caliari +420

Pass
Decision
PASS
Conservative chance
24.4%
Position
No position
Target price
+323 or better
Markets checked
28
Recorded
Oct 24, 2026, 11:31 AM UTC

BetRivers · checked Oct 24, 2026, 11:30 AM UTC

Why Blueprint passed: The official pick lacks a verified bilateral discriminator for this side.

Decision and result provenance
Contract
whale_best_bet.v3
Published engine
gpt-6.1-sol · 1
Publication
eb199717-8bf2-5226-8c9c-ff31f6006f57
Forecast fingerprint
1d4b433c4793af94b66ed35a94ba5ba76893ddfd048f96540b75df9e94e91892
Calibration
best_bet_calibration.v3.pooled_fallback
Rejected by
winner_discriminator_missing, evidence_gate_failed, conservative_edge_below_2_5pct
Recorded snapshot
a1dc37f83b6ac3258a0bf4035d33064ca9c2716c74d669c8e5ad04acde9e9183

Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev

Grant Dawson -110

Pass
Decision
PASS
Conservative chance
50.5%
Position
No position
Target price
+105 or better
Markets checked
28
Recorded
Oct 24, 2026, 11:31 AM UTC

Betway · checked Oct 24, 2026, 11:30 AM UTC

Why Blueprint passed: The edge falls below 3% after uncertainty is applied.

Decision and result provenance
Contract
whale_best_bet.v3
Published engine
gpt-6.1-sol · 1
Publication
ca44ba4f-8623-510d-869e-9d8f84cdfef4
Forecast fingerprint
6ecf959314658a7ccce0017bb7ca76035516fb42d89341f73bc2fa02a809ffac
Calibration
best_bet_calibration.v3.pooled_fallback
Rejected by
conservative_ev_below_3pct, second_book_ev_non_positive, conservative_edge_below_2_5pct, kelly_zero
Recorded snapshot
1741047118d7f7eeee7488d3136d42f664e56d620934e7bfe9858ef327b00236

Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita

Fight goes the distance +164

Pass
Decision
PASS
Conservative chance
38.5%
Position
No position
Target price
+168 or better
Markets checked
28
Recorded
Oct 24, 2026, 11:31 AM UTC

FanDuel · checked Oct 24, 2026, 11:31 AM UTC

Why Blueprint passed: The uncertainty penalty reflects a small UFC-level sample.

Decision and result provenance
Contract
whale_best_bet.v3
Published engine
gpt-6.1-sol · 1
Publication
3e2119e7-1716-5c8b-806e-bbc3b8129fb3
Forecast fingerprint
2d8d9fe8a3aa4b7a2c99603a6e8bc744767257b35987b8f2c1c7830f6988e79d
Calibration
best_bet_calibration.v3.pooled_fallback
Rejected by
small_ufc_sample_shrink, conservative_ev_below_3pct, second_book_ev_non_positive, conservative_edge_below_2_5pct
Recorded snapshot
83bcbe83ad885df941966a7f725e849a4188587c32f8a85533ffb957e0a41eca

Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev

Fight goes the distance -225

Pass
Decision
PASS
Conservative chance
66.2%
Position
No position
Target price
-180 or better
Markets checked
40
Recorded
Oct 24, 2026, 11:31 AM UTC

BetWay · checked Oct 24, 2026, 11:31 AM UTC

Why Blueprint passed: The scheduled-distance transition increases uncertainty.

Decision and result provenance
Contract
whale_best_bet.v3
Published engine
gpt-6.1-sol · 1
Publication
a8a2f282-7754-5ecc-8b38-9e1fb3e0f162
Forecast fingerprint
32a007c91ec20802138abef812f05a080565e135625dd8eed414af3686abad66
Calibration
best_bet_calibration.v3.pooled_fallback
Rejected by
scheduled_distance_transition_shrink, conservative_ev_below_3pct, second_book_ev_non_positive, conservative_edge_below_2_5pct, kelly_zero
Recorded snapshot
8cdbb9efc0b64d11f530d96ae29b40a66cb52f14a81295d3ad962dfc827e2d34

Nikita Krylov vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

Nikita Krylov +430

Pass
Decision
PASS
Conservative chance
22.2%
Position
No position
Target price
+365 or better
Markets checked
28
Recorded
Oct 24, 2026, 11:31 AM UTC

FanDuel · checked Oct 24, 2026, 11:30 AM UTC

Why Blueprint passed: The official pick lacks a verified bilateral discriminator for this side.

Decision and result provenance
Contract
whale_best_bet.v3
Published engine
gpt-6.1-sol · 1
Publication
ade8b15d-df7e-534d-8661-1391036c700f
Forecast fingerprint
5b134662cd17a7a0310bd6ec1b06f8980030511528c3966dc314c8f2cda89fa5
Calibration
best_bet_calibration.v3.pooled_fallback
Rejected by
winner_discriminator_missing, asymmetric_evidence_shrink, evidence_gate_failed
Recorded snapshot
44e03b433477e6ffad1553c4b7a22894dd60fc40f9a2b1cc75c50d452a5a038c

Abus Magomedov vs Cam Rowston

Abus Magomedov -120

Pass
Decision
PASS
Conservative chance
52.9%
Position
No position
Target price
-106 or better
Markets checked
28
Recorded
Oct 24, 2026, 11:31 AM UTC

FanDuel · checked Oct 24, 2026, 11:30 AM UTC

Why Blueprint passed: The edge falls below 3% after uncertainty is applied.

Decision and result provenance
Contract
whale_best_bet.v3
Published engine
gpt-6.1-sol · 1
Publication
b1da682b-45dc-5293-8b73-ffd34ecbdc42
Forecast fingerprint
baf2c2e23bd7ea71807c2c6f2d37c75c92d4377157b9a3c7df2758e80a079533
Calibration
best_bet_calibration.v3.pooled_fallback
Rejected by
conservative_ev_below_3pct, second_book_ev_non_positive, conservative_edge_below_2_5pct, kelly_zero
Recorded snapshot
bfed238311ed3a8117b32772a2a4e37aa64666ffe317e37bf4f1c2a865cf8572

Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun

Jacob Malkoun +135

Pass
Decision
PASS
Conservative chance
39.6%
Position
No position
Target price
+160 or better
Markets checked
28
Recorded
Oct 24, 2026, 11:31 AM UTC

Caesars · checked Oct 24, 2026, 11:30 AM UTC

Why Blueprint passed: The uncertainty penalty reflects a small UFC-level sample.

Decision and result provenance
Contract
whale_best_bet.v3
Published engine
gpt-6.1-sol · 1
Publication
0c24f036-301a-57cd-8549-cf5f5329936d
Forecast fingerprint
95f2c401cb516daa6cd6e82e8562ed28bbe015f9022a6993ef210f9b4d3bbdd9
Calibration
best_bet_calibration.v3.pooled_fallback
Rejected by
small_ufc_sample_shrink, sparse_comparable_evidence_shrink, competition_transition_shrink, conservative_ev_below_3pct, second_book_ev_non_positive, conservative_edge_below_2_5pct, kelly_zero
Recorded snapshot
540124c8200a50c85d6f890742797e3c7c9e04c290ecae4d0ee70ef3594a766e

Azamat Murzakanov vs Dominick Reyes

Dominick Reyes +175

Pass
Decision
PASS
Conservative chance
37.0%
Position
No position
Target price
+179 or better
Markets checked
28
Recorded
Oct 24, 2026, 11:31 AM UTC

BetRivers · checked Oct 24, 2026, 11:30 AM UTC

Why Blueprint passed: The official pick lacks a verified bilateral discriminator for this side.

Decision and result provenance
Contract
whale_best_bet.v3
Published engine
gpt-6.1-sol · 1
Publication
6716f36c-8123-5833-84a0-d28b47500dfb
Forecast fingerprint
506d7a76d32990eaf39b5d59064512443b63e9042615d7627196c5e871311cfa
Calibration
best_bet_calibration.v3.pooled_fallback
Rejected by
winner_discriminator_missing, evidence_gate_failed, conservative_ev_below_3pct, conservative_edge_below_2_5pct
Recorded snapshot
815920b2782627745ec8afd7000883daa2ddc4808b4825a3c0509706427493ac

Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili

Petr Yan -144

Pass
Decision
PASS
Conservative chance
54.5%
Position
No position
Target price
-113 or better
Markets checked
40
Recorded
Oct 24, 2026, 11:31 AM UTC

FanDuel · checked Oct 24, 2026, 11:30 AM UTC

Why Blueprint passed: Comparable-opponent evidence is too sparse to preserve the apparent edge.

Decision and result provenance
Contract
whale_best_bet.v3
Published engine
gpt-6.1-sol · 1
Publication
d01472e0-415d-5b0c-8172-638ef3974c66
Forecast fingerprint
c06c3f9a8006c8db2efba779ee7afb93f3d22a0c68e0e207e272322c92f36a4a
Calibration
best_bet_calibration.v3.pooled_fallback
Rejected by
sparse_comparable_evidence_shrink, scheduled_distance_transition_shrink, unresolved_conflict_shrink, conservative_ev_below_3pct, second_book_ev_non_positive, conservative_edge_below_2_5pct, kelly_zero
Recorded snapshot
bcae59ea5e93ec20c3fdbe5983cb939cf0b166c36ebd42f3bd780b832d4d303f

Bolaji Oki vs Daniel Santos

Fight goes the distance +182

Won
Decision
BET
Conservative chance
39.3%
Conservative EV
+10.7%
Target price
+163 or better
Markets checked
28
Recorded
Oct 24, 2026, 11:31 AM UTC

FanDuel · checked Oct 24, 2026, 11:31 AM UTC

Decision and result provenance
Contract
whale_best_bet.v3
Published engine
gpt-6.1-sol · 1
Publication
d8f4b18d-14e7-548f-84f5-350cb4c67062
Forecast fingerprint
56e0c43f8cc0e43b1fb9c8c33e0c488a199198b0062cf1e72286284625fc03e8
Calibration
best_bet_calibration.v3.pooled_fallback
Rejected by
No rejection gates
Recorded snapshot
7594e5808fbba7ea33f3732935885f9e0bc917818997e407121ae33a7170b9b4
Canonical result revision
1 · 9e3a2ab8-99cd-42cd-b221-54cdd93fb32a
Verified result source
0d729e19-080b-4425-9232-72a13b571426

Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon

Noah Gugnon +135

Pass
Decision
PASS
Conservative chance
39.0%
Position
No position
Target price
+164 or better
Markets checked
28
Recorded
Oct 24, 2026, 11:31 AM UTC

Caesars · checked Oct 24, 2026, 11:30 AM UTC

Why Blueprint passed: The official pick lacks a verified bilateral discriminator for this side.

Decision and result provenance
Contract
whale_best_bet.v3
Published engine
gpt-6.1-sol · 1
Publication
be9c90b8-2009-5b45-8bec-822f4d9af239
Forecast fingerprint
bfb3101f9ab6fad9f3130ae63fe0625a8711556dcebafc121ebda63e6b1c21a4
Calibration
best_bet_calibration.v3.pooled_fallback
Rejected by
winner_discriminator_missing, small_ufc_sample_shrink, sparse_comparable_evidence_shrink, competition_transition_shrink, evidence_gate_failed, conservative_ev_below_3pct, second_book_ev_non_positive, conservative_edge_below_2_5pct, kelly_zero
Recorded snapshot
66e194e821aa967eb634c347d68b120418b5f2c85fcef9d7c2581b7a93bae7c1

Returns use a standardized one-unit reference for scorekeeping, never a suggested stake. Blueprint provides information and never places wagers.

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