Settled forecasts
172
For entertainment only — MMA analysis only, not financial advice.
Quarterly Public Results Report
State of MMA Forecasting
Q3 2026 · Blueprint MMA public benchmark
See the complete settled sample behind Blueprint’s headline results: every official pick, win, miss, published win chance, and known limitation for the period.
Current as of Sep 11, 2026, 5:15 PM UTC · Source revision c2cb52d3a1d22de9
Winner accuracy
61.6%
Wins
106
Misses
66
Win-chance score · lower is better
0.2406
Did the published percentages match the results?
Over a large enough sample, picks published near 70% should win about seven times in ten. Each range stays visible, including ranges with only a few fights.
| Probability | Expected | Observed | N | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 55% | 60.3% | 121 | under |
| 60–70% | 65% | 66.7% | 39 | within band |
| 70–80% | 75% | 63.6% | 11 | over |
| 80–90% | 85% | 0.0% | 1 | within band |
Scope and limitations
Official, published and settled UFC winner predictions with a finite pre-fight win probability.
- Accuracy and Brier score describe winner-call quality and probability calibration; they do not establish betting profitability.
- The sample can change as fights settle or verified corrections are applied.
- Engine-versus-market comparisons are reported only when a timestamped, identity-matched market cohort is available.
Download the data
Use the PDF for a readable copy, the CSV for every result row, or the JSON for structured metrics.
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