Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos, UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa prediction and deep analysis
Dooho Choi/Daniel Santos
FeatherweightWinner Committee
Thirty-three specialists answer distinct winner-only questions. Eligible evidence is renormalized only inside its original lane.
Fight-State Projection
These are distributions of eligible committee signal mass—not invented percentages of fight time.
Conditional Method Model
Each row is conditional on that fighter already winning; every fighter row sums to 100%.
Conditional Round Model
Round-event mass is derived from survival-conditioned hazards. The final scheduled round is absorbing.
Probability Reconciliation
The exact-outcome grid preserves both winner marginals and sums to 100%. Decision branches have no round.
Output Selection
The winner and every outcome label come from one immutable reconciled distribution. Oversight may widen uncertainty, never move the point forecast.
Key Takeaways
- The War Room Committee picks Daniel Santos (61% win probability).
- Daniel Santos path. "Volume-range decision": Establish jab and leg kick at 70-inch reach
- Dooho Choi path. "Early KO via precision power": Close distance inside the reach gap in R1
- Risk: Choi's layoff-accuracy marriage
- Risk: Santos's negative strike differential surfacing
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos?
Dooho Choi won. Blueprint MMA's pre-fight pick was Daniel Santos.
Who wins Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos?
Blueprint MMA's War Room Committee picks Daniel Santos with a 61% win probability.
What could change the outcome of Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos?
Choi's layoff-accuracy marriage: If ring rust dulls his timing, the 56% accuracy edge evaporates and Santos's volume becomes decisive. Santos's negative strike differential surfacing: His historical absorption exceeds his output; a committed Choi blitz could exploit this before cardio becomes relevant. Chin durability test: Santos has never been stopped by strikes, but he has not faced a power striker of this caliber in the UFC.
How does Blueprint MMA make this prediction?
Blueprint MMA validates and freezes the fight data, then runs 68 Kimi K2.6 agent executions: 33 Winner, 10 Method, 20 Timing, and 5 non-voting Oversight. Kimi K2.6 is the only inference model; LangGraph only orchestrates stage order and state. Winner agents fix the point probability first, Method and Timing agents fill conditional branches without reopening it, and Oversight audits without voting. The public probability is held to a sane 5-95% range and logged before release. Published winner probabilities are AI-only. Market prices may be shown for benchmarking, CLV, and workflow context, but they do not select, rank, or alter the published forecast. If the direct pipeline cannot return a valid read, the forecast is held. Methodology is documented at https://blueprintmma.com/manifesto and accuracy is tracked publicly at https://blueprintmma.com/track-record.