Jake Matthews vs Carlston Harris, UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo prediction and deep analysis
Jake Matthews/Carlston Harris
Winner Committee
Thirty-three specialists answer distinct winner-only questions. Eligible evidence is renormalized only inside its original lane.
Fight-State Projection
These are distributions of eligible committee signal mass—not invented percentages of fight time.
Conditional Method Model
Each row is conditional on that fighter already winning; every fighter row sums to 100%.
Conditional Round Model
Round-event mass is derived from survival-conditioned hazards. The final scheduled round is absorbing.
Probability Reconciliation
The exact-outcome grid preserves both winner marginals and sums to 100%. Decision branches have no round.
Output Selection
The winner and every outcome label come from one immutable reconciled distribution. Oversight may widen uncertainty, never move the point forecast.
Key Takeaways
- The War Room Committee picks Jake Matthews (55% win probability).
- Jake Matthews path. "Pressure striking to chin": Close the three-inch reach gap with angled entries
- Carlston Lindsay Harris path. "Range-control survival": Establish jab tempo from outside
- Risk: Matthews overcommits to grappling
- Risk: Harris chin holds beyond expectation
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Jake Matthews vs Carlston Harris?
Jake Matthews won. Blueprint MMA's pre-fight pick was Jake Matthews.
Who wins Jake Matthews vs Carlston Harris?
Blueprint MMA's War Room Committee picks Jake Matthews with a 55% win probability.
What could change the outcome of Jake Matthews vs Carlston Harris?
Matthews overcommits to grappling: If Matthews drops for takedowns to avoid Harris's length, Harris's six submission wins and zero submission losses create a credible counter-threat that could flip the fight. Harris chin holds beyond expectation: A surviving Harris forces a decision where his marginal decision-win rate edge and reach could shade close rounds, though the committee treats this as a low-likelihood path. Weight-cut uncertainty: Both fighters are welterweight-identified in source data but the bout is listed at lightweight; any dehydration stress amplifies the durability differential.
How does Blueprint MMA make this prediction?
Blueprint MMA validates and freezes the fight data, then runs 68 Kimi K2.6 agent executions: 33 Winner, 10 Method, 20 Timing, and 5 non-voting Oversight. Kimi K2.6 is the only inference model; LangGraph only orchestrates stage order and state. Winner agents fix the point probability first, Method and Timing agents fill conditional branches without reopening it, and Oversight audits without voting. The public probability is held to a sane 5-95% range and logged before release. Published winner probabilities are AI-only. Market prices may be shown for benchmarking, CLV, and workflow context, but they do not select, rank, or alter the published forecast. If the direct pipeline cannot return a valid read, the forecast is held. Methodology is documented at https://blueprintmma.com/manifesto and accuracy is tracked publicly at https://blueprintmma.com/track-record.