Luis Felipe Dias vs Yi Sak Lee, UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo prediction and deep analysis
Luis Felipe Dias/Yi Sak Lee
Winner Committee
Thirty-three specialists answer distinct winner-only questions. Eligible evidence is renormalized only inside its original lane.
Fight-State Projection
These are distributions of eligible committee signal mass—not invented percentages of fight time.
Conditional Method Model
Each row is conditional on that fighter already winning; every fighter row sums to 100%.
Conditional Round Model
Round-event mass is derived from survival-conditioned hazards. The final scheduled round is absorbing.
Probability Reconciliation
The exact-outcome grid preserves both winner marginals and sums to 100%. Decision branches have no round.
Output Selection
The winner and every outcome label come from one immutable reconciled distribution. Oversight may widen uncertainty, never move the point forecast.
Key Takeaways
- The War Room Committee picks Yi Sak Lee (74% win probability).
- Luis Felipe Dias path. "Submission off the chin test": Force exchanges early to probe Lee's reaction to power
- Yi Sak Lee path. "Youthful firefight endurance": Match Dias's pace without overcommitting on entries
- Risk: Chin gives out on first clean connection
- Risk: Dias's takedown entries stuffed
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Luis Felipe Dias vs Yi Sak Lee?
Luis Felipe Dias won. Blueprint MMA's pre-fight pick was Yi Sak Lee.
Who wins Luis Felipe Dias vs Yi Sak Lee?
Blueprint MMA's War Room Committee picks Yi Sak Lee with a 74% win probability.
What could change the outcome of Luis Felipe Dias vs Yi Sak Lee?
Chin gives out on first clean connection: Both fighters carry power; one early landed shot could end the fight before either path fully develops, collapsing the strategic read into a single exchange. Dias's takedown entries stuffed: If Lee defends the initial clinch and mat transitions, Dias's submission pathway disappears and the fight becomes a pure standup contest favoring the younger fighter's durability. Symmetric rust from layoff: Both fighters carry similar inactivity; either could show timing issues that prolong the feeling-out process and push the fight past the expected early finish window.
How does Blueprint MMA make this prediction?
Blueprint MMA validates and freezes the fight data, then runs 68 Kimi K2.6 agent executions: 33 Winner, 10 Method, 20 Timing, and 5 non-voting Oversight. Kimi K2.6 is the only inference model; LangGraph only orchestrates stage order and state. Winner agents fix the point probability first, Method and Timing agents fill conditional branches without reopening it, and Oversight audits without voting. The public probability is held to a sane 5-95% range and logged before release. Published winner probabilities are AI-only. Market prices may be shown for benchmarking, CLV, and workflow context, but they do not select, rank, or alter the published forecast. If the direct pipeline cannot return a valid read, the forecast is held. Methodology is documented at https://blueprintmma.com/manifesto and accuracy is tracked publicly at https://blueprintmma.com/track-record.