Sergei Pavlovich vs Tallison Teixeira, UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo prediction and deep analysis
Sergei Pavlovich/Tallison Teixeira
Winner Committee
Thirty-three specialists answer distinct winner-only questions. Eligible evidence is renormalized only inside its original lane.
Fight-State Projection
These are distributions of eligible committee signal mass—not invented percentages of fight time.
Conditional Method Model
Each row is conditional on that fighter already winning; every fighter row sums to 100%.
Conditional Round Model
Round-event mass is derived from survival-conditioned hazards. The final scheduled round is absorbing.
Probability Reconciliation
The exact-outcome grid preserves both winner marginals and sums to 100%. Decision branches have no round.
Output Selection
The winner and every outcome label come from one immutable reconciled distribution. Oversight may widen uncertainty, never move the point forecast.
Key Takeaways
- The War Room Committee picks Tallison Teixeira (80% win probability).
- Sergei Pavlovich path. "Southpaw power compression": Close distance behind feints to nullify height disadvantage
- Tallison Teixeira Silva path. "Volume attrition to early finish": Establish jab at range to exploit frame advantage
- Risk: Extended inactivity rust
- Risk: Chin failure on first clean shot
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Sergei Pavlovich vs Tallison Teixeira?
Sergei Pavlovich won. Blueprint MMA's pre-fight pick was Tallison Teixeira.
Who wins Sergei Pavlovich vs Tallison Teixeira?
Blueprint MMA's War Room Committee picks Tallison Teixeira with a 80% win probability.
What could change the outcome of Sergei Pavlovich vs Tallison Teixeira?
Extended inactivity rust: Pavlovich has not competed since April 2024; timing, distance management, and chin readiness are unverified against live UFC opposition. Chin failure on first clean shot: Teixeira's knockout loss to Derrick Lewis on minimal absorbed output suggests catastrophic vulnerability if Pavlovich's power lands early. Phantom data classification: The archetype priors and reference class both incorrectly label this lightweight, degrading statistical confidence in any quantitative baseline.
How does Blueprint MMA make this prediction?
Blueprint MMA validates and freezes the fight data, then runs 68 Kimi K2.6 agent executions: 33 Winner, 10 Method, 20 Timing, and 5 non-voting Oversight. Kimi K2.6 is the only inference model; LangGraph only orchestrates stage order and state. Winner agents fix the point probability first, Method and Timing agents fill conditional branches without reopening it, and Oversight audits without voting. The public probability is held to a sane 5-95% range and logged before release. Published winner probabilities are AI-only. Market prices may be shown for benchmarking, CLV, and workflow context, but they do not select, rank, or alter the published forecast. If the direct pipeline cannot return a valid read, the forecast is held. Methodology is documented at https://blueprintmma.com/manifesto and accuracy is tracked publicly at https://blueprintmma.com/track-record.