Song Yadong vs Deiveson Figueiredo, UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo prediction and deep analysis
Song Yadong/Deiveson Figueiredo
Winner Committee
Thirty-three specialists answer distinct winner-only questions. Eligible evidence is renormalized only inside its original lane.
Fight-State Projection
These are distributions of eligible committee signal mass—not invented percentages of fight time.
Conditional Method Model
Each row is conditional on that fighter already winning; every fighter row sums to 100%.
Conditional Round Model
Round-event mass is derived from survival-conditioned hazards. The final scheduled round is absorbing.
Probability Reconciliation
The exact-outcome grid preserves both winner marginals and sums to 100%. Decision branches have no round.
Output Selection
The winner and every outcome label come from one immutable reconciled distribution. Oversight may widen uncertainty, never move the point forecast.
Key Takeaways
- The War Room Committee picks Song Yadong (68% win probability).
- Song Yadong path. "Volume accumulation decision": Establish jab rhythm in open space
- Deiveson Figueiredo path. "Guillotine trap from failed takedown": Bait reactive level changes
- Risk: Corner familiarity backfire
- Risk: Chin degradation under volume
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Song Yadong vs Deiveson Figueiredo?
Song Yadong won. Blueprint MMA's pre-fight pick was Song Yadong.
Who wins Song Yadong vs Deiveson Figueiredo?
Blueprint MMA's War Room Committee picks Song Yadong with a 68% win probability.
What could change the outcome of Song Yadong vs Deiveson Figueiredo?
Corner familiarity backfire: Team Alpha Male's intimate knowledge of Figueiredo's guillotine could lead to overcorrection, creating openings for alternative submissions. Chin degradation under volume: Figueiredo's recent knockout loss and porous defensive striking create vulnerability to accumulated damage if he cannot force grappling exchanges. Weight-class cardio unknowns: Both fighters lack lightweight data; if either fades unexpectedly, the other's path becomes dominant regardless of pre-fight archetype.
How does Blueprint MMA make this prediction?
Blueprint MMA validates and freezes the fight data, then runs 68 Kimi K2.6 agent executions: 33 Winner, 10 Method, 20 Timing, and 5 non-voting Oversight. Kimi K2.6 is the only inference model; LangGraph only orchestrates stage order and state. Winner agents fix the point probability first, Method and Timing agents fill conditional branches without reopening it, and Oversight audits without voting. The public probability is held to a sane 5-95% range and logged before release. Published winner probabilities are AI-only. Market prices may be shown for benchmarking, CLV, and workflow context, but they do not select, rank, or alter the published forecast. If the direct pipeline cannot return a valid read, the forecast is held. Methodology is documented at https://blueprintmma.com/manifesto and accuracy is tracked publicly at https://blueprintmma.com/track-record.