// Roster Index›Lightweight›Dossier · Cain Carrizosa
UFC FIGHTER PROFILE_
UFC · UNKNOWNLIGHTWEIGHT

Cain
Carrizosa

NICKNAME"The Insane"·UNITED STATES
PROFESSIONAL RECORD
11-5-0
CURRENT FORM
2L STREAK
NEXT FIGHT
NO BOUT ANNOUNCED
Cain Carrizosa
FIGHTER -
UNI🇺🇸
PROFILE PHOTO
PROFILE
PROFILE DATA! COLD
HEIGHT
5'8"
AGE
40
STANCE
ORTHODOX
WEIGHT
Lightweight
PROFESSIONAL RECORD_
16 BOUTS
WIN
11
LOSS
5
DRAW
0
WIN RATE
69%
11/16 bouts
FINISH RATE
55%
of professional wins
LAST 5 FIGHTS2L STREAK · 3-2
WWWLL
STYLE SUMMARY_
DATA: COLD
FIGHTING STYLE
WELL ROUNDED

Well rounded fighter with no dominant single weapon — 45% of wins are by dec.

KEY STRENGTHS

Banks rounds on the scorecard — pace and positioning over splash damage.

KEY RISKS

Volume strikers have outpointed across full fights — output drops after R2.

// PERFORMANCE_METRICS · 02_

STRIKE / GRAPPLE
VITALS

Observed profile rates compared with stored weight-class medians where coverage exists. Any fallback uses a labeled UFC reference average; no fallback is presented as a division median.

// SLPM▲ ABOVE
2.72
Strikes Landed/Min
Reference value 2.70
// STR. ACC▼ BELOW
42%
Striking Accuracy
Reference value 45%
// SAPM▼ BELOW
5.80
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Reference value 2.70
// STR. DEF▼ BELOW
51%
Striking Defense
Reference value 53%
// TD AVG▼ BELOW
0.00
Takedowns/15 min
Reference value 1.50
// TD ACC▼ BELOW
0%
Takedown Accuracy
Reference value 40%
// TD DEF▼ BELOW
14%
Takedown Defense
Reference value 59%
// SUB AVG▼ BELOW
0.00
Submissions/15 min
Reference value 0.50
// QUALITY_OF_COMPETITION · 02B_

WHO THEY
ACTUALLY FOUGHT

A record says how often a fighter won, not against whom. These ratings weigh every result by the opponent's strength at the time, then compare this fighter with the 111 rated fighters on the UFC lightweight roster (anyone with a UFC bout in the last two years or one booked).

// RATING
#96
against the 111 rated on the UFC lightweight roster · Elo 1490
// STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
8th
percentile · average opponent rated 1505 at fight time (recent fights count most)
// RESULTS VS EXPECTATION
12th
percentile · fell short of what opponents' ratings predicted (-0.27 per fight)

9 rated fights · opponents rated in 53% of recorded fights · last rated fight JAN 29, 2022

// CAREER_BREAKDOWN · 03_

WIN CONDITION MAP

Where the wins come from, and where the losses came from. Method splits by knockout, submission, and decision.

// WINS (11)
n = 11
KO/TKO · 3
SUB · 3
DEC · 5
3
KO/TKO
27%
3
SUB
27%
5
DEC
45%
// LOSSES (5)
n = 5
KO/TKO · 2
SUB · 1
DEC · 3
2
KO/TKO
40%
1
SUB
20%
3
DEC
60%
// PATH_TO_VICTORY_
55% FINISH
KO/TKOEARLY ROUNDS · 3 fights
27%
SUBANY ROUND · 3 fights
27%
DECFULL FIGHT · 5 fights
45%
Top win condition: ko/tko · early rounds.
// DNA_PROFILE · 04_

ATTRIBUTE FINGERPRINT

Evidence-backed 0-100 scores built only from observed profile stats and disclosed bout-history proxies. This is a fixed Blueprint scoring model, not a division percentile; missing axes remain unknown.

// DNA_PROFILE_
3 OBSERVED7 DERIVED0 UNKNOWN
// BENCHMARK
FIXED SCORE SCALE
// LINKED SAMPLE
17 BOUTS
// PROFILE UPDATED
JUL 1, 2026
// RECORDED SOURCE
ufcstats
Fighter attribute fingerprint10 of 10 attributes have evidence-backed scores on the Blueprint fixed scale. Unknown axes are not plotted and no score represents a division percentile.KO POWER39TD DEFENSE20GRAPPLING60CHIN73STRIKING35CARDIO66AGGRESSION25SUB THREAT20STR DEFENSE47RECOVERY20
// BANDS
90+ELITE
70-89STRONG
45-69AVERAGE
30-44BELOW
<30LOW
N/AUNKNOWN
Highest scored axis: Chin. Lowest scored axis: Recovery.
// EVIDENCE REGISTER
10 SCORED · 0 OPEN
KO Power39
DERIVED PROXY

KO wins divided by total career wins

N=11 wins
TD Defense20
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed takedown defense rate (14%)

Grappling60
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rate

Chin73
DERIVED PROXY

KO-loss durability proxy from career record

N=16 bouts
Striking35
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed striking volume and accuracy

Cardio66
DERIVED PROXY

Long-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win share

Aggression25
DERIVED PROXY

Activity proxy from observed strike and takedown volume

Sub Threat20
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed submission rate (0 per 15 min)

Str Defense47
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed striking defense rate (51%)

Recovery20
DERIVED PROXY

Share of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.

N=6 losses
Fighter attribute fingerprint accessible data summary
AttributeScoreProvenanceEvidenceSample
KO Power39 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO wins divided by total career wins11 wins
TD Defense20 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved takedown defense rate (14%)Not recorded
Grappling60 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rateNot recorded
Chin73 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO-loss durability proxy from career record16 bouts
Striking35 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed striking volume and accuracyNot recorded
Cardio66 out of 100DERIVED PROXYLong-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win shareNot recorded
Aggression25 out of 100DERIVED PROXYActivity proxy from observed strike and takedown volumeNot recorded
Sub Threat20 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved submission rate (0 per 15 min)Not recorded
Str Defense47 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved striking defense rate (51%)Not recorded
Recovery20 out of 100DERIVED PROXYShare of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.6 losses
// CAREER_MOMENTUM · 05_

THE ARC SO FAR

Rolling momentum score (0-100) recomputed after every bout. Weighted blend of result, opponent context, and method-of-finish, designed to show the shape, not the destination.

// MOMENTUM_TIMELINE_
SCOREWINLOSS
0255075100JUN 2011WJUN 2011WSEP 2011WJAN 2012WAUG 2013WOCT 2013WFEB 2014LAUG 2014LMAR 2015LMAR 2015LNOV 2015WFEB 2016WAUG 2016WOCT 2016WFEB 2017WMAY 2019LOCT 2019LJAN 2022// SCORE

  1. Start, JUN 2011, momentum score 45.
  2. Start, JUN 2011, momentum score 56, KO/TKO R1.
  3. Start, SEP 2011, momentum score 63, DEC R3.
  4. Start, JAN 2012, momentum score 72, SUB R2.
  5. Start, AUG 2013, momentum score 79, DEC R3.
  6. Start, OCT 2013, momentum score 89, SUB R2.
  7. Start, FEB 2014, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R1.
  8. Start, AUG 2014, momentum score 93, SUB R1.
  9. Start, MAR 2015, momentum score 86, DEC R3.
  10. Start, MAR 2015, momentum score 79, DEC R3.
  11. Start, NOV 2015, momentum score 72, DEC R3.
  12. Start, FEB 2016, momentum score 79, DEC R3.
  13. Start, AUG 2016, momentum score 88, SUB R2.
  14. Start, OCT 2016, momentum score 95, DEC R3.
  15. Start, FEB 2017, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  16. Start, MAY 2019, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R1.
  17. Start, OCT 2019, momentum score 90, KO/TKO R1.
  18. Start, JAN 2022, momentum score 80, KO/TKO R1.

Peaked at 100 (W vs Quitiquit), bottomed at 45 (Debut). Current reading: 80.

// KILL_SHOT_MATRIX · 06_

WHEN THE FINISHES COME

Cross-tab of fight outcome by method and round. Reads top-down for method, left-right for round. Cyan intensity scales with frequency.

// METHOD × ROUND_
17/17 fights mapped
METHOD ↓ / ROUND →R1R2R3R4R5FREQ
KO/TKO
5
29%
-
-
-
-
5
total
SUB
1
6%
3
18%
-
-
-
4
total
DEC
-
-
8
47%
-
-
8
total
// PRIMARY KILL ZONE
R1-R2 KO/TKO · 5 of 17 mapped
// LATE-FIGHT GAP
No R5 finishes either way
// DECISION RATE
47%, fights often go the distance
// FIGHT_HISTORY · 08_

BOUT LOG
17 FIGHTS

Detailed bout records for the indexed tenure. Sorted most recent first.

L
VS Josh WickJan 29, 2022
KO/TKOR1 · 4:58
Fierce FC 18 - Fierce Fighting Championship 18
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
L
VS Jai HerbertOct 26, 2019
KO/TKOR1 · 3:26
CW 109 - Cage Warriors 109
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
KO (Knee)
W
VS Shohei YamamotoMay 25, 2019
KO/TKOR1 · 3:35
CFFC 75 - Cage Fury Fighting Championships 75
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Shoulder Injury)
W
VS Danny NavarroFeb 2, 2017
DecisionR3 · 5:00
TPF 30 - Tachi Palace Fights 30
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Nick BustamanteOct 7, 2016
DecisionR3 · 5:00
TWC 25 - Vengeance
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Matt HaggeAug 4, 2016
SubmissionR2 · 1:54
TPF 28 - Tachi Palace Fights 28
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Armbar)
W
VS Ray CerveraFeb 18, 2016
DecisionR3 · 5:00
TPF 26 - Brawl in the Hall
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
L
VS Danny NavarroNov 19, 2015
DecisionR3 · 5:00
TPF 25 - Tachi Palace Fights 25
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
L
VS Leonardo Mafra TeixeiraMar 21, 2015
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC Fight Night 62 - Maia vs. LaFlare
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
L
VS Leonardo MafraMar 21, 2015
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC Fight Night 62 - Maia vs. LaFlare
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
L
VS Chris WadeAug 30, 2014
SubmissionR1 · 1:12
UFC 177 - Dillashaw vs. Soto
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke)
W
VS Chris QuitiquitFeb 6, 2014
KO/TKOR1 · 0:30
TPF 18 - Martinez vs. Culley
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
KO (Punch)
// FAQ · 09_

CITATION-READY ANSWERS

Quick answers based on the public fighter profile and fight history shown on this page.

Lightweight. Professional record 11-5. Unranked at the time of indexing.

Research Cain Carrizosa

Compare this fighter head to head, check the next UFC card, read current matchup analysis, or verify settled Blueprint MMA forecasts.

Compare Cain CarrizosaUpcoming UFC scheduleFight analysis archivePrediction track record
// FORECAST_AVAILABLE_
Want the next-fight forecast?
The pick is free.

Every published fight shows its winner and win probability free. The full debate, method and round open with Sharp or an Event Pass.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS ALL FIGHTERS
BLUEPRINT/MMA · DOSSIER ENGINE v3.2
// LAST INDEX SYNC · 2026-10-28