// Roster Index›Welterweight›Dossier · Chel Erwin-Davis
UFC FIGHTER PROFILE_
UFC · UNKNOWNWELTERWEIGHT

Chel
Erwin-Davis

NICKNAME"The First Sun"·UNITED STATES
PROFESSIONAL RECORD
5-3-0
CURRENT FORM
2L STREAK
NEXT FIGHT
NO BOUT ANNOUNCED
Chel Erwin-Davis
FIGHTER -
UNI🇺🇸
PROFILE PHOTO
PROFILE
PROFILE DATA! COLD
HEIGHT
6'0"
AGE
40
WEIGHT
Welterweight
PROFESSIONAL RECORD_
8 BOUTS
WIN
5
LOSS
3
DRAW
0
WIN RATE
63%
5/8 bouts
FINISH RATE
100%
of professional wins
LAST 5 FIGHTS2L STREAK · 3-2
WWWLL
STYLE SUMMARY_
DATA: COLD
FIGHTING STYLE
WELL ROUNDED

Well rounded fighter with grappling at the core — 60% of wins are by sub.

KEY STRENGTHS

Drags it to the mat and hunts the finish — submission threat opens up off transitions.

KEY RISKS

Pressure boxers willing to wade into the pocket have found chins on offer; cardio drops in late rounds.

// PERFORMANCE_METRICS · 02_

STRIKE / GRAPPLE
VITALS

Observed profile rates compared with stored weight-class medians where coverage exists. Any fallback uses a labeled UFC reference average; no fallback is presented as a division median.

// SLPM▲ ABOVE
4.06
Strikes Landed/Min
Reference value 2.65
// STR. ACC▲ ABOVE
54%
Striking Accuracy
Reference value 47%
// SAPM▲ ABOVE
1.13
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Reference value 2.74
// STR. DEF▲ ABOVE
61%
Striking Defense
Reference value 53%
// TD AVG▲ ABOVE
4.25
Takedowns/15 min
Reference value 1.50
// TD ACC▲ ABOVE
100%
Takedown Accuracy
Reference value 40%
// TD DEF▼ BELOW
50%
Takedown Defense
Reference value 59%
// SUB AVG▲ ABOVE
1.40
Submissions/15 min
Reference value 0.50
// QUALITY_OF_COMPETITION · 02B_

WHO THEY
ACTUALLY FOUGHT

A record says how often a fighter won, not against whom. These ratings weigh every result by the opponent's strength at the time, then compare this fighter with the 99 rated fighters on the UFC welterweight roster (anyone with a UFC bout in the last two years or one booked).

// RATING
#60
against the 99 rated on the UFC welterweight roster · Elo 1540
// STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
22nd
percentile · average opponent rated 1523 at fight time (recent fights count most)
// RESULTS VS EXPECTATION
30th
percentile · fell short of what opponents' ratings predicted (-0.08 per fight)

7 rated fights · opponents rated in 88% of recorded fights · last rated fight MAY 24, 2019

// CAREER_BREAKDOWN · 03_

WIN CONDITION MAP

Where the wins come from, and where the losses came from. Method splits by knockout, submission, and decision.

// WINS (5)
n = 5
KO/TKO · 2
SUB · 3
2
KO/TKO
40%
3
SUB
60%
0
DEC
0%
// LOSSES (3)
n = 3
KO/TKO · 2
DEC · 1
2
KO/TKO
67%
0
SUB
0%
1
DEC
33%
// PATH_TO_VICTORY_
100% FINISH
KO/TKOEARLY ROUNDS · 2 fights
40%
SUBANY ROUND · 3 fights
60%
Top win condition: ko/tko · early rounds.
// DNA_PROFILE · 04_

ATTRIBUTE FINGERPRINT

Evidence-backed 0-100 scores built only from observed profile stats and disclosed bout-history proxies. This is a fixed Blueprint scoring model, not a division percentile; missing axes remain unknown.

// DNA_PROFILE_
3 OBSERVED7 DERIVED0 UNKNOWN
// BENCHMARK
FIXED SCORE SCALE
// LINKED SAMPLE
8 BOUTS
// PROFILE UPDATED
JUL 2, 2026
// RECORDED SOURCE
ufcstats
Fighter attribute fingerprint10 of 10 attributes have evidence-backed scores on the Blueprint fixed scale. Unknown axes are not plotted and no score represents a division percentile.KO POWER57TD DEFENSE22GRAPPLING97CHIN58STRIKING65CARDIO51AGGRESSION70SUB THREAT70STR DEFENSE69RECOVERY50
// BANDS
90+ELITE
70-89STRONG
45-69AVERAGE
30-44BELOW
<30LOW
N/AUNKNOWN
Highest scored axis: Grappling. Lowest scored axis: TD Defense.
// EVIDENCE REGISTER
10 SCORED · 0 OPEN
KO Power57
DERIVED PROXY

KO wins divided by total career wins

N=5 wins
TD Defense22
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed takedown defense rate (50%)

Grappling97
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rate

Chin58
DERIVED PROXY

KO-loss durability proxy from career record

N=8 bouts
Striking65
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed striking volume and accuracy

Cardio51
DERIVED PROXY

Long-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win share

Aggression70
DERIVED PROXY

Activity proxy from observed strike and takedown volume

Sub Threat70
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed submission rate (1.4 per 15 min)

Str Defense69
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed striking defense rate (61%)

Recovery50
DERIVED PROXY

Share of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.

N=3 losses
Fighter attribute fingerprint accessible data summary
AttributeScoreProvenanceEvidenceSample
KO Power57 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO wins divided by total career wins5 wins
TD Defense22 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved takedown defense rate (50%)Not recorded
Grappling97 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rateNot recorded
Chin58 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO-loss durability proxy from career record8 bouts
Striking65 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed striking volume and accuracyNot recorded
Cardio51 out of 100DERIVED PROXYLong-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win shareNot recorded
Aggression70 out of 100DERIVED PROXYActivity proxy from observed strike and takedown volumeNot recorded
Sub Threat70 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved submission rate (1.4 per 15 min)Not recorded
Str Defense69 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved striking defense rate (61%)Not recorded
Recovery50 out of 100DERIVED PROXYShare of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.3 losses
// CAREER_MOMENTUM · 05_

THE ARC SO FAR

Rolling momentum score (0-100) recomputed after every bout. Weighted blend of result, opponent context, and method-of-finish, designed to show the shape, not the destination.

// MOMENTUM_TIMELINE_
SCOREWINLOSS
0255075100OCT 2013WOCT 2013WFEB 2014LAPR 2014WNOV 2015WJUN 2016WJUN 2017LJUN 2018LMAY 2019// SCORE

  1. Start, OCT 2013, momentum score 45.
  2. Start, OCT 2013, momentum score 54, KO/TKO R2.
  3. Start, FEB 2014, momentum score 64, SUB R1.
  4. Start, APR 2014, momentum score 57, DEC R3.
  5. Start, NOV 2015, momentum score 66, KO/TKO R3.
  6. Start, JUN 2016, momentum score 76, SUB R2.
  7. Start, JUN 2017, momentum score 86, SUB R1.
  8. Start, JUN 2018, momentum score 76, KO/TKO R1.
  9. Start, MAY 2019, momentum score 69, KO/TKO R3.

Peaked at 86 (W vs Meredith), bottomed at 45 (Debut). Current reading: 69.

// KILL_SHOT_MATRIX · 06_

WHEN THE FINISHES COME

Cross-tab of fight outcome by method and round. Reads top-down for method, left-right for round. Cyan intensity scales with frequency.

// METHOD × ROUND_
8/8 fights mapped
METHOD ↓ / ROUND →R1R2R3R4R5FREQ
KO/TKO
1
13%
1
13%
2
25%
-
-
4
total
SUB
2
25%
1
13%
-
-
-
3
total
DEC
-
-
1
13%
-
-
1
total
// PRIMARY KILL ZONE
R1-R2 KO/TKO · 2 of 8 mapped
// LATE-FIGHT GAP
No R5 finishes either way
// DECISION RATE
13%, fights rarely go the distance
// FIGHT_HISTORY · 08_

BOUT LOG
8 FIGHTS

Detailed bout records for the indexed tenure. Sorted most recent first.

L
VS Mike BreedenMay 24, 2019
KO/TKOR3 · 1:24
LFA 67 - James vs. Martin
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
L
VS Jaleel WillisJun 8, 2018
KO/TKOR1 · 1:10
LFA 42 - Krantz vs. Kayne
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Knee and Punches)
W
VS Adam MeredithJun 2, 2017
SubmissionR1 · 3:52
Shamrock FC - Shamrock 290
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Triangle Choke)
W
VS Kevin EngelJun 24, 2016
SubmissionR2 · 1:19
Bellator 157 - Dynamite 2
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
W
VS Adam CellaNov 6, 2015
KO/TKOR3 · 0:35
Bellator 145 - Vengeance
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
L
VS Emmanuel WaloApr 19, 2014
DecisionR3 · 5:00
CFFC 34 - Santella vs. Honstein
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Micah TerrillFeb 8, 2014
SubmissionR1 · 1:32
CFFC 31 - Heckman vs. Lentz
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
W
VS Dave MarfoneOct 26, 2013
KO/TKOR2 · 2:08
CFFC 28 - Brenneman vs. Baker
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Doctor Stoppage)
// FAQ · 09_

CITATION-READY ANSWERS

Quick answers based on the public fighter profile and fight history shown on this page.

Welterweight. Professional record 5-3. Unranked at the time of indexing.

Research Chel Erwin-Davis

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Compare Chel Erwin-DavisUpcoming UFC scheduleFight analysis archivePrediction track record
// FORECAST_AVAILABLE_
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// LAST INDEX SYNC · 2026-10-28