// Roster Index›Lightweight›Dossier · Diego Saraiva
UFC FIGHTER PROFILE_
UFC · UNKNOWNLIGHTWEIGHT

Diego
Saraiva

NICKNAME"The Octopus"·UNITED STATES
PROFESSIONAL RECORD
22-20-1
CURRENT FORM
4L STREAK
NEXT FIGHT
NO BOUT ANNOUNCED
Diego Saraiva
FIGHTER -
UNI🇺🇸
PROFILE PHOTO
PROFILE
PROFILE DATA! COLD
HEIGHT
5'6"
AGE
44
STANCE
ORTHODOX
WEIGHT
Lightweight
PROFESSIONAL RECORD_
43 BOUTS
WIN
22
LOSS
20
DRAW
1
WIN RATE
51%
22/43 bouts
FINISH RATE
82%
of professional wins
LAST 5 FIGHTS4L STREAK · 1-4
WLLLL
STYLE SUMMARY_
DATA: COLD
FIGHTING STYLE
WELL ROUNDED

Well rounded fighter with no dominant single weapon — 64% of wins are by sub.

KEY STRENGTHS

Drags it to the mat and hunts the finish — submission threat opens up off transitions.

KEY RISKS

Volume strikers have outpointed across full fights — output drops after R2.

// PERFORMANCE_METRICS · 02_

STRIKE / GRAPPLE
VITALS

Observed profile rates compared with stored weight-class medians where coverage exists. Any fallback uses a labeled UFC reference average; no fallback is presented as a division median.

// SLPM▼ BELOW
1.64
Strikes Landed/Min
Reference value 2.70
// STR. ACC▼ BELOW
32%
Striking Accuracy
Reference value 45%
// SAPM▼ BELOW
3.58
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Reference value 2.70
// STR. DEF▲ ABOVE
62%
Striking Defense
Reference value 53%
// TD AVG▼ BELOW
1.33
Takedowns/15 min
Reference value 1.50
// TD ACC▼ BELOW
40%
Takedown Accuracy
Reference value 40%
// TD DEF▼ BELOW
0%
Takedown Defense
Reference value 59%
// SUB AVG▲ ABOVE
0.70
Submissions/15 min
Reference value 0.50
// QUALITY_OF_COMPETITION · 02B_

WHO THEY
ACTUALLY FOUGHT

A record says how often a fighter won, not against whom. These ratings weigh every result by the opponent's strength at the time, then compare this fighter with the 111 rated fighters on the UFC lightweight roster (anyone with a UFC bout in the last two years or one booked).

// RATING
#112
against the 111 rated on the UFC lightweight roster · Elo 1428
// STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
5th
percentile · average opponent rated 1501 at fight time (recent fights count most)
// RESULTS VS EXPECTATION
16th
percentile · fell short of what opponents' ratings predicted (-0.22 per fight)

22 rated fights · opponents rated in 51% of recorded fights · last rated fight MAR 12, 2016

// CAREER_BREAKDOWN · 03_

WIN CONDITION MAP

Where the wins come from, and where the losses came from. Method splits by knockout, submission, and decision.

// WINS (22)
n = 22
KO/TKO · 4
SUB · 14
DEC · 4
4
KO/TKO
18%
14
SUB
64%
4
DEC
18%
// LOSSES (20)
n = 20
KO/TKO · 5
DEC · 15
5
KO/TKO
25%
0
SUB
0%
15
DEC
75%
// PATH_TO_VICTORY_
82% FINISH
KO/TKOEARLY ROUNDS · 4 fights
18%
SUBANY ROUND · 14 fights
64%
DECFULL FIGHT · 4 fights
18%
Top win condition: ko/tko · early rounds.
// DNA_PROFILE · 04_

ATTRIBUTE FINGERPRINT

Evidence-backed 0-100 scores built only from observed profile stats and disclosed bout-history proxies. This is a fixed Blueprint scoring model, not a division percentile; missing axes remain unknown.

// DNA_PROFILE_
3 OBSERVED7 DERIVED0 UNKNOWN
// BENCHMARK
FIXED SCORE SCALE
// LINKED SAMPLE
43 BOUTS
// PROFILE UPDATED
OCT 3, 2026
// RECORDED SOURCE
ufcstats
Fighter attribute fingerprint10 of 10 attributes have evidence-backed scores on the Blueprint fixed scale. Unknown axes are not plotted and no score represents a division percentile.KO POWER26TD DEFENSE20GRAPPLING60CHIN74STRIKING20CARDIO83AGGRESSION25SUB THREAT35STR DEFENSE71RECOVERY53
// BANDS
90+ELITE
70-89STRONG
45-69AVERAGE
30-44BELOW
<30LOW
N/AUNKNOWN
Highest scored axis: Cardio. Lowest scored axis: Striking.
// EVIDENCE REGISTER
10 SCORED · 0 OPEN
KO Power26
DERIVED PROXY

KO wins divided by total career wins

N=22 wins
TD Defense20
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed takedown defense rate (0%)

Grappling60
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rate

Chin74
DERIVED PROXY

KO-loss durability proxy from career record

N=43 bouts
Striking20
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed striking volume and accuracy

Cardio83
DERIVED PROXY

Long-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win share

Aggression25
DERIVED PROXY

Activity proxy from observed strike and takedown volume

Sub Threat35
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed submission rate (0.7 per 15 min)

Str Defense71
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed striking defense rate (62%)

Recovery53
DERIVED PROXY

Share of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.

N=20 losses
Fighter attribute fingerprint accessible data summary
AttributeScoreProvenanceEvidenceSample
KO Power26 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO wins divided by total career wins22 wins
TD Defense20 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved takedown defense rate (0%)Not recorded
Grappling60 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rateNot recorded
Chin74 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO-loss durability proxy from career record43 bouts
Striking20 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed striking volume and accuracyNot recorded
Cardio83 out of 100DERIVED PROXYLong-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win shareNot recorded
Aggression25 out of 100DERIVED PROXYActivity proxy from observed strike and takedown volumeNot recorded
Sub Threat35 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved submission rate (0.7 per 15 min)Not recorded
Str Defense71 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved striking defense rate (62%)Not recorded
Recovery53 out of 100DERIVED PROXYShare of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.20 losses
// CAREER_MOMENTUM · 05_

THE ARC SO FAR

Rolling momentum score (0-100) recomputed after every bout. Weighted blend of result, opponent context, and method-of-finish, designed to show the shape, not the destination.

// MOMENTUM_TIMELINE_
SCOREWINLOSS
0255075100OCT 2001LOCT 2001LMAY 2003WAUG 2003LNOV 2004LJUN 2005WSEP 2005WOCT 2005WNOV 2005DEC 2005WFEB 2006LAPR 2006WAPR 2006WJUN 2006LNOV 2006WNOV 2006WNOV 2006WJAN 2007LFEB 2007LJUL 2007LSEP 2007WJAN 2008WMAR 2008LMAY 2008WMAY 2008LOCT 2008WJAN 2009WAPR 2009WSEP 2009WOCT 2009WDEC 2009WMAR 2010LMAY 2010LSEP 2010WJAN 2011LMAR 2011WAPR 2011LJUN 2011LSEP 2011WJUN 2014LOCT 2014LFEB 2015LJUN 2015LMAR 2016// SCORE

  1. Start, OCT 2001, momentum score 45.
  2. Start, OCT 2001, momentum score 38, DEC R3.
  3. Start, MAY 2003, momentum score 28, KO/TKO R1.
  4. Start, AUG 2003, momentum score 39, KO/TKO R1.
  5. Start, NOV 2004, momentum score 29, KO/TKO R1.
  6. Start, JUN 2005, momentum score 22, DEC R3.
  7. Start, SEP 2005, momentum score 32, SUB R1.
  8. Start, OCT 2005, momentum score 42, SUB R1.
  9. Start, NOV 2005, momentum score 51, SUB R1.
  10. Start, DEC 2005, momentum score 51.
  11. Start, FEB 2006, momentum score 61, SUB R1.
  12. Start, APR 2006, momentum score 54, DEC R3.
  13. Start, APR 2006, momentum score 64, SUB R1.
  14. Start, JUN 2006, momentum score 74, SUB R3.
  15. Start, NOV 2006, momentum score 67, DEC R3.
  16. Start, NOV 2006, momentum score 76, SUB R1.
  17. Start, NOV 2006, momentum score 86, SUB R2.
  18. Start, JAN 2007, momentum score 97, KO/TKO R1.
  19. Start, FEB 2007, momentum score 90, DEC R3.
  20. Start, JUL 2007, momentum score 83, DEC R3.
  21. Start, SEP 2007, momentum score 76, DEC R3.
  22. Start, JAN 2008, momentum score 86, SUB R1.
  23. Start, MAR 2008, momentum score 95, SUB R1.
  24. Start, MAY 2008, momentum score 88, DEC R5.
  25. Start, MAY 2008, momentum score 97, KO/TKO R2.
  26. Start, OCT 2008, momentum score 90, DEC R3.
  27. Start, JAN 2009, momentum score 100, SUB R2.
  28. Start, APR 2009, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  29. Start, SEP 2009, momentum score 100, SUB R1.
  30. Start, OCT 2009, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  31. Start, DEC 2009, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R3.
  32. Start, MAR 2010, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  33. Start, MAY 2010, momentum score 90, KO/TKO R1.
  34. Start, SEP 2010, momentum score 83, DEC R3.
  35. Start, JAN 2011, momentum score 93, SUB R2.
  36. Start, MAR 2011, momentum score 86, DEC R3.
  37. Start, APR 2011, momentum score 96, SUB R2.
  38. Start, JUN 2011, momentum score 89, DEC R3.
  39. Start, SEP 2011, momentum score 82, DEC R3.
  40. Start, JUN 2014, momentum score 89, DEC R3.
  41. Start, OCT 2014, momentum score 79, KO/TKO R1.
  42. Start, FEB 2015, momentum score 72, DEC R3.
  43. Start, JUN 2015, momentum score 65, DEC R3.
  44. Start, MAR 2016, momentum score 55, KO/TKO R1.

Peaked at 100 (W vs Evangelista), bottomed at 22 (L vs Kinnison). Current reading: 55.

// KILL_SHOT_MATRIX · 06_

WHEN THE FINISHES COME

Cross-tab of fight outcome by method and round. Reads top-down for method, left-right for round. Cyan intensity scales with frequency.

// METHOD × ROUND_
42/43 fights mapped
METHOD ↓ / ROUND →R1R2R3R4R5FREQ
KO/TKO
7
17%
1
2%
1
2%
-
-
9
total
SUB
9
21%
4
10%
1
2%
-
-
14
total
DEC
-
-
18
43%
-
1
2%
19
total
// PRIMARY KILL ZONE
R1-R2 KO/TKO · 8 of 42 mapped
// LATE-FIGHT GAP
No R5 finishes either way
// DECISION RATE
44%, fights often go the distance
// FIGHT_HISTORY · 08_

BOUT LOG
43 FIGHTS

Detailed bout records for the indexed tenure. Sorted most recent first.

L
VS Nate LandwehrMar 12, 2016
KO/TKOR1 · 4:47
A&A Fight Time Promotions - A Night of Explosions
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
L
VS Jordan RinaldiJun 27, 2015
DecisionR3 · 5:00
NFC 75 - Wild Bill's Fight Night 75
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
L
VS Enoch WilsonFeb 5, 2015
DecisionR3 · 5:00
TPF 22 - Champions Collide 2
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
L
VS Shah BobonisOct 25, 2014
KO/TKOR1 · 0:15
NFC 69 - Wild Bill's Fight Night 69
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
W
VS Eddie YaginJun 19, 2014
DecisionR3 · 5:00
TPF 19 - Throwback Thursday
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
L
VS Ronnie RogersSep 23, 2011
DecisionR3 · 5:00
WBFN - Wild Bill's Fight Night 40
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
L
VS Ronnie RogersJun 18, 2011
DecisionR3 · 5:00
WBFN - Wild Bill's Fight Night 37
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Jacob AllmanApr 29, 2011
SubmissionR2 · 2:07
HFN - Harrah Fight Night
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Triangle Choke)
L
VS Marius CujbaMar 11, 2011
DecisionR3 · 5:00
WBFN - Wild Bill's Fight Night 34
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Joe ElmoreJan 29, 2011
SubmissionR2 · 3:30
WBFN - Wild Bill's Fight Night 33
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Armbar)
L
VS Micah MillerSep 9, 2010
DecisionR3 · 5:00
TPF 6 - High Stakes
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
L
VS Joe SotoMay 20, 2010
KO/TKOR1 · 5:00
BFC - Bellator Fighting Championships 19
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Doctor Stoppage)
// FAQ · 09_

CITATION-READY ANSWERS

Quick answers based on the public fighter profile and fight history shown on this page.

Lightweight. Professional record 22-20-1. Unranked at the time of indexing.

Research Diego Saraiva

Compare this fighter head to head, check the next UFC card, read current matchup analysis, or verify settled Blueprint MMA forecasts.

Compare Diego SaraivaUpcoming UFC scheduleFight analysis archivePrediction track record
// FORECAST_AVAILABLE_
Want the next-fight forecast?
The pick is free.

Every published fight shows its winner and win probability free. The full debate, method and round open with Sharp or an Event Pass.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS ALL FIGHTERS
BLUEPRINT/MMA · DOSSIER ENGINE v3.2
// LAST INDEX SYNC · 2026-10-28