// Roster Index›Women's Flyweight›Dossier · Ernesta Kareckaitė
UFC FIGHTER PROFILE_
UFC · UNKNOWNWOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT

Ernesta
Kareckaitė

NICKNAME"Heavy-Handed"·LITHUANIA
PROFESSIONAL RECORD
6-2-1
CURRENT FORM
— STREAK
NEXT FIGHT
NO BOUT ANNOUNCED
Ernesta Kareckaitė
FIGHTER -
LIT
PROFILE PHOTO
PROFILE
PROFILE DATA! LIVE
HEIGHT
5'9"
REACH
5'11"
AGE
28
STANCE
ORTHODOX
WEIGHT
Women's Flyweight
PROFESSIONAL RECORD_
9 BOUTS
WIN
6
LOSS
2
DRAW
1
WIN RATE
67%
6/9 bouts
FINISH RATE
33%
of professional wins
LAST 5 FIGHTS— STREAK · 2-2-1
WLWL-
STYLE SUMMARY_
DATA: LIVE
FIGHTING STYLE
VOLUME STRIKER

Volume striker fighter built around defensive grappling — 67% of wins are by dec.

KEY STRENGTHS

Banks rounds on the scorecard — pace and positioning over splash damage.

KEY RISKS

Volume strikers have outpointed across full fights — output drops after R2.

// PERFORMANCE_METRICS · 02_

STRIKE / GRAPPLE
VITALS

Observed profile rates compared with stored weight-class medians where coverage exists. Any fallback uses a labeled UFC reference average; no fallback is presented as a division median.

// SLPM▲ ABOVE
6.47
Strikes Landed/Min
Reference value 3.86
// STR. ACC▼ BELOW
41%
Striking Accuracy
Reference value 44%
// SAPM▼ BELOW
5.72
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Reference value 3.77
// STR. DEF▼ BELOW
49%
Striking Defense
Reference value 55%
// TD AVG▼ BELOW
0.60
Takedowns/15 min
Reference value 1.02
// TD ACC▲ ABOVE
50%
Takedown Accuracy
Reference value 34%
// TD DEF▲ ABOVE
83%
Takedown Defense
Reference value 54%
// SUB AVG▼ BELOW
0.00
Submissions/15 min
Reference value 0.30
// QUALITY_OF_COMPETITION · 02B_

WHO THEY
ACTUALLY FOUGHT

A record says how often a fighter won, not against whom. These ratings weigh every result by the opponent's strength at the time, then compare this fighter with the 40 other rated fighters on the UFC women's flyweight roster (anyone with a UFC bout in the last two years or one booked).

// RATING
#31
of 41 on the UFC women's flyweight roster · Elo 1515
// STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
35th
percentile · average opponent rated 1520 at fight time (recent fights count most)
// RESULTS VS EXPECTATION
28th
percentile · fell short of what opponents' ratings predicted (-0.02 per fight)

6 rated fights · opponents rated in 60% of recorded fights · last rated fight OCT 10, 2026

// CAREER_BREAKDOWN · 03_

WIN CONDITION MAP

Where the wins come from, and where the losses came from. Method splits by knockout, submission, and decision.

// WINS (6)
n = 6
KO/TKO · 2
DEC · 4
2
KO/TKO
33%
0
SUB
0%
4
DEC
67%
// LOSSES (2)
n = 2
DEC · 2
0
KO/TKO
0%
0
SUB
0%
2
DEC
100%
// PATH_TO_VICTORY_
33% FINISH
KO/TKOEARLY ROUNDS · 2 fights
33%
DECFULL FIGHT · 4 fights
67%
Top win condition: ko/tko · early rounds.
// DNA_PROFILE · 04_

ATTRIBUTE FINGERPRINT

Evidence-backed 0-100 scores built only from observed profile stats and disclosed bout-history proxies. This is a fixed Blueprint scoring model, not a division percentile; missing axes remain unknown.

// DNA_PROFILE_
3 OBSERVED7 DERIVED0 UNKNOWN
// BENCHMARK
FIXED SCORE SCALE
// LINKED SAMPLE
10 BOUTS
// PROFILE UPDATED
OCT 25, 2026
// RECORDED SOURCE
ufcstats
Fighter attribute fingerprint10 of 10 attributes have evidence-backed scores on the Blueprint fixed scale. Unknown axes are not plotted and no score represents a division percentile.KO POWER48TD DEFENSE96GRAPPLING45CHIN88STRIKING70CARDIO84AGGRESSION71SUB THREAT20STR DEFENSE42RECOVERY50
// BANDS
90+ELITE
70-89STRONG
45-69AVERAGE
30-44BELOW
<30LOW
N/AUNKNOWN
Highest scored axis: TD Defense. Lowest scored axis: Sub Threat.
// EVIDENCE REGISTER
10 SCORED · 0 OPEN
KO Power48
DERIVED PROXY

KO wins divided by total career wins

N=6 wins
TD Defense96
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed takedown defense rate (83%)

Grappling45
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rate

Chin88
DERIVED PROXY

KO-loss durability proxy from career record

N=9 bouts
Striking70
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed striking volume and accuracy

Cardio84
DERIVED PROXY

Long-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win share

Aggression71
DERIVED PROXY

Activity proxy from observed strike and takedown volume

Sub Threat20
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed submission rate (0 per 15 min)

Str Defense42
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed striking defense rate (49%)

Recovery50
DERIVED PROXY

Share of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.

N=2 losses
Fighter attribute fingerprint accessible data summary
AttributeScoreProvenanceEvidenceSample
KO Power48 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO wins divided by total career wins6 wins
TD Defense96 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved takedown defense rate (83%)Not recorded
Grappling45 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rateNot recorded
Chin88 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO-loss durability proxy from career record9 bouts
Striking70 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed striking volume and accuracyNot recorded
Cardio84 out of 100DERIVED PROXYLong-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win shareNot recorded
Aggression71 out of 100DERIVED PROXYActivity proxy from observed strike and takedown volumeNot recorded
Sub Threat20 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved submission rate (0 per 15 min)Not recorded
Str Defense42 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved striking defense rate (49%)Not recorded
Recovery50 out of 100DERIVED PROXYShare of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.2 losses
// CAREER_MOMENTUM · 05_

THE ARC SO FAR

Rolling momentum score (0-100) recomputed after every bout. Weighted blend of result, opponent context, and method-of-finish, designed to show the shape, not the destination.

// MOMENTUM_TIMELINE_
SCOREWINLOSS
0255075100MAR 2019WMAR 2019WMAY 2019OCT 2021WAUG 2022WJAN 2023WSEP 2023LMAY 2024WJAN 2025LFEB 2026OCT 2026// SCORE

  1. Start, MAR 2019, momentum score 45.
  2. Start, MAR 2019, momentum score 56, KO/TKO R1.
  3. Start, MAY 2019, momentum score 66, KO/TKO R1.
  4. Start, OCT 2021, momentum score 66.
  5. Start, AUG 2022, momentum score 73, DEC R3.
  6. Start, JAN 2023, momentum score 80, DEC R5.
  7. Start, SEP 2023, momentum score 87, DEC R3.
  8. Start, MAY 2024, momentum score 80, DEC R3.
  9. Start, JAN 2025, momentum score 87, DEC R3.
  10. Start, FEB 2026, momentum score 80, DEC R3.
  11. Start, OCT 2026, momentum score 80.

Peaked at 87 (W vs Judice), bottomed at 45 (Debut). Current reading: 80.

// KILL_SHOT_MATRIX · 06_

WHEN THE FINISHES COME

Cross-tab of fight outcome by method and round. Reads top-down for method, left-right for round. Cyan intensity scales with frequency.

// METHOD × ROUND_
8/10 fights mapped
METHOD ↓ / ROUND →R1R2R3R4R5FREQ
KO/TKO
2
25%
-
-
-
-
2
total
SUB
-
-
-
-
-
0
total
DEC
-
-
5
63%
-
1
13%
6
total
// PRIMARY KILL ZONE
R1-R2 KO/TKO · 2 of 8 mapped
// LATE-FIGHT GAP
No R5 finishes either way
// DECISION RATE
60%, fights often go the distance
// FIGHT_HISTORY · 08_

BOUT LOG
10 FIGHTS

Detailed bout records for the indexed tenure. Sorted most recent first.

D
VS Melissa GattoOct 10, 2026
DrawR3 · 5:00
UFC Fight Night 290 - Allen vs. Duncan
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Draw (Majority)
L
VS Regina Malpica RiveraFeb 28, 2026
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC Fight Night 268 - Moreno vs. Kavanagh
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Nicolle CaliariJan 11, 2025
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC Fight Night 249 - Dern vs. Ribas 2
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Michael Bell 30 - 27. Chris Lee 30 - 27. David Sutherland 29 - 28.
L
VS Dione BarbosaMay 4, 2024
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC 301 - Pantoja vs. Erceg
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Carli JudiceSep 26, 2023
DecisionR3 · 5:00
Dana White's Contender Series - Contender Series 2023: Week 8
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Split)
W
VS Laetitia BlotJan 22, 2023
DecisionR5 · 5:00
HXMMA 6 - Hexagone MMA 6
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Split)
W
VS Kate BacikAug 28, 2022
DecisionR3 · 5:00
HXMMA 4 - Hexagone MMA 4
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Split)
D
VS Laetitia BlotOct 30, 2021
DrawR3 · 5:00
HXMMA 2 - Hexagone MMA 2
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Draw (Unanimous)
W
VS Klaudia PawickaMay 3, 2019
KO/TKOR1 · 0:00
MMA Bushido 77 - Fighting Championship in Vilnius
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
W
VS Tekle IaganashviliMar 16, 2019
KO/TKOR1 · 0:00
King of Kings 69 - World Series 2019 in Vilnius
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO
// FAQ · 09_

CITATION-READY ANSWERS

Quick answers based on the public fighter profile and fight history shown on this page.

Women's Flyweight. Professional record 6-2-1. Unranked at the time of indexing.

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// LAST INDEX SYNC · 2026-10-28