// Roster Index›Lightweight›Dossier · Joe Ellenberger
UFC FIGHTER PROFILE_
UFC · UNKNOWNLIGHTWEIGHT

Joe
Ellenberger

NICKNAME"Excalibur"·UNITED STATES
PROFESSIONAL RECORD
15-2-0
CURRENT FORM
1L STREAK
NEXT FIGHT
NO BOUT ANNOUNCED
Joe Ellenberger
FIGHTER -
UNI🇺🇸
PROFILE PHOTO
PROFILE
PROFILE DATA! COLD
HEIGHT
5'9"
REACH
6'0"
AGE
41
STANCE
ORTHODOX
WEIGHT
Lightweight
PROFESSIONAL RECORD_
17 BOUTS
WIN
15
LOSS
2
DRAW
0
WIN RATE
88%
15/17 bouts
FINISH RATE
80%
of professional wins
LAST 5 FIGHTS1L STREAK · 3-2
LWWWL
STYLE SUMMARY_
DATA: COLD
FIGHTING STYLE
GRAPPLER

Grappler fighter with no dominant single weapon — 53% of wins are by ko/tko.

KEY STRENGTHS

Closes distance and trades — most wins come from heavy hands inside the first two rounds.

KEY RISKS

Pressure boxers willing to wade into the pocket have found chins on offer; cardio drops in late rounds.

// PERFORMANCE_METRICS · 02_

STRIKE / GRAPPLE
VITALS

Observed profile rates compared with stored weight-class medians where coverage exists. Any fallback uses a labeled UFC reference average; no fallback is presented as a division median.

// SLPM▼ BELOW
1.62
Strikes Landed/Min
Reference value 2.70
// STR. ACC▲ ABOVE
47%
Striking Accuracy
Reference value 45%
// SAPM▼ BELOW
3.45
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Reference value 2.70
// STR. DEF▼ BELOW
48%
Striking Defense
Reference value 53%
// TD AVG▲ ABOVE
3.17
Takedowns/15 min
Reference value 1.50
// TD ACC▼ BELOW
40%
Takedown Accuracy
Reference value 40%
// TD DEF▼ BELOW
0%
Takedown Defense
Reference value 59%
// SUB AVG▲ ABOVE
1.10
Submissions/15 min
Reference value 0.50
// QUALITY_OF_COMPETITION · 02B_

WHO THEY
ACTUALLY FOUGHT

A record says how often a fighter won, not against whom. These ratings weigh every result by the opponent's strength at the time, then compare this fighter with the 111 rated fighters on the UFC lightweight roster (anyone with a UFC bout in the last two years or one booked).

THIN RATED HISTORY
// RATING
#61
against the 111 rated on the UFC lightweight roster · Elo 1544
// STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
19th
percentile · average opponent rated 1521 at fight time (recent fights count most)
// RESULTS VS EXPECTATION
49th
percentile · beat what opponents' ratings predicted (+0.05 per fight)

7 rated fights · opponents rated in 41% of recorded fights · last rated fight DEC 13, 2014 · Few rated fights: read these as rough.

// CAREER_BREAKDOWN · 03_

WIN CONDITION MAP

Where the wins come from, and where the losses came from. Method splits by knockout, submission, and decision.

// WINS (15)
n = 15
KO/TKO · 8
SUB · 4
DEC · 3
8
KO/TKO
53%
4
SUB
27%
3
DEC
20%
// LOSSES (2)
n = 2
KO/TKO · 1
DEC · 1
1
KO/TKO
50%
0
SUB
0%
1
DEC
50%
// PATH_TO_VICTORY_
80% FINISH
KO/TKOEARLY ROUNDS · 8 fights
53%
SUBANY ROUND · 4 fights
27%
DECFULL FIGHT · 3 fights
20%
Top win condition: ko/tko · early rounds.
// DNA_PROFILE · 04_

ATTRIBUTE FINGERPRINT

Evidence-backed 0-100 scores built only from observed profile stats and disclosed bout-history proxies. This is a fixed Blueprint scoring model, not a division percentile; missing axes remain unknown.

// DNA_PROFILE_
3 OBSERVED7 DERIVED0 UNKNOWN
// BENCHMARK
FIXED SCORE SCALE
// LINKED SAMPLE
17 BOUTS
// PROFILE UPDATED
OCT 3, 2026
// RECORDED SOURCE
ufcstats
Fighter attribute fingerprint10 of 10 attributes have evidence-backed scores on the Blueprint fixed scale. Unknown axes are not plotted and no score represents a division percentile.KO POWER76TD DEFENSE20GRAPPLING69CHIN81STRIKING36CARDIO81AGGRESSION25SUB THREAT55STR DEFENSE40RECOVERY100
// BANDS
90+ELITE
70-89STRONG
45-69AVERAGE
30-44BELOW
<30LOW
N/AUNKNOWN
Highest scored axis: Recovery. Lowest scored axis: TD Defense.
// EVIDENCE REGISTER
10 SCORED · 0 OPEN
KO Power76
DERIVED PROXY

KO wins divided by total career wins

N=15 wins
TD Defense20
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed takedown defense rate (0%)

Grappling69
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rate

Chin81
DERIVED PROXY

KO-loss durability proxy from career record

N=17 bouts
Striking36
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed striking volume and accuracy

Cardio81
DERIVED PROXY

Long-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win share

Aggression25
DERIVED PROXY

Activity proxy from observed strike and takedown volume

Sub Threat55
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed submission rate (1.1 per 15 min)

Str Defense40
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed striking defense rate (48%)

Recovery100
DERIVED PROXY

Share of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.

N=2 losses
Fighter attribute fingerprint accessible data summary
AttributeScoreProvenanceEvidenceSample
KO Power76 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO wins divided by total career wins15 wins
TD Defense20 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved takedown defense rate (0%)Not recorded
Grappling69 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rateNot recorded
Chin81 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO-loss durability proxy from career record17 bouts
Striking36 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed striking volume and accuracyNot recorded
Cardio81 out of 100DERIVED PROXYLong-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win shareNot recorded
Aggression25 out of 100DERIVED PROXYActivity proxy from observed strike and takedown volumeNot recorded
Sub Threat55 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved submission rate (1.1 per 15 min)Not recorded
Str Defense40 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved striking defense rate (48%)Not recorded
Recovery100 out of 100DERIVED PROXYShare of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.2 losses
// CAREER_MOMENTUM · 05_

THE ARC SO FAR

Rolling momentum score (0-100) recomputed after every bout. Weighted blend of result, opponent context, and method-of-finish, designed to show the shape, not the destination.

// MOMENTUM_TIMELINE_
SCOREWINLOSS
0255075100APR 2005WAPR 2005WMAR 2006WAPR 2006WJUN 2007WMAY 2008WJUL 2008WSEP 2008WDEC 2008WMAY 2009WJUL 2009WMAY 2011WJUL 2011LOCT 2011WMAR 2012WDEC 2012WJUN 2014LDEC 2014// SCORE

  1. Start, APR 2005, momentum score 45.
  2. Start, APR 2005, momentum score 56, KO/TKO R1.
  3. Start, MAR 2006, momentum score 66, KO/TKO R1.
  4. Start, APR 2006, momentum score 77, KO/TKO R1.
  5. Start, JUN 2007, momentum score 86, SUB R1.
  6. Start, MAY 2008, momentum score 97, KO/TKO R1.
  7. Start, JUL 2008, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  8. Start, SEP 2008, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R1.
  9. Start, DEC 2008, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R1.
  10. Start, MAY 2009, momentum score 100, SUB R1.
  11. Start, JUL 2009, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R1.
  12. Start, MAY 2011, momentum score 100, SUB R1.
  13. Start, JUL 2011, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  14. Start, OCT 2011, momentum score 93, DEC R5.
  15. Start, MAR 2012, momentum score 100, SUB R3.
  16. Start, DEC 2012, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R1.
  17. Start, JUN 2014, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  18. Start, DEC 2014, momentum score 93, KO/TKO R3.

Peaked at 100 (W vs Worthington), bottomed at 45 (Debut). Current reading: 93.

// KILL_SHOT_MATRIX · 06_

WHEN THE FINISHES COME

Cross-tab of fight outcome by method and round. Reads top-down for method, left-right for round. Cyan intensity scales with frequency.

// METHOD × ROUND_
17/17 fights mapped
METHOD ↓ / ROUND →R1R2R3R4R5FREQ
KO/TKO
8
47%
-
1
6%
-
-
9
total
SUB
3
18%
-
1
6%
-
-
4
total
DEC
-
-
3
18%
-
1
6%
4
total
// PRIMARY KILL ZONE
R1-R2 KO/TKO · 8 of 17 mapped
// LATE-FIGHT GAP
No R5 finishes either way
// DECISION RATE
24%, fights rarely go the distance
// FIGHT_HISTORY · 08_

BOUT LOG
17 FIGHTS

Detailed bout records for the indexed tenure. Sorted most recent first.

L
VS Bryan BarberenaDec 13, 2014
KO/TKOR3 · 3:24
UFC on Fox 13 - Dos Santos vs. Miocic
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
W
VS James MoontasriJun 28, 2014
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC Fight Night 44 - Swanson vs. Stephens
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Split)
W
VS Joe WilkDec 15, 2012
KO/TKOR1 · 3:34
VFC - Victory Fighting Championship 38
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
W
VS Jesse ZeuginMar 2, 2012
SubmissionR3 · 1:16
Titan FC 21 - Titan Fighting Championship 21
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
L
VS Justin SalasOct 14, 2011
DecisionR5 · 5:00
VFC - Victory Fighting Championship 36
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS James WarfieldJul 30, 2011
DecisionR3 · 5:00
VFC - Victory Fighting Championship 35
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Jeff CarstensMay 21, 2011
SubmissionR1 · 3:07
Disorderly Conduct 2 - The Return
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Kimura)
W
VS Joe WilkJul 24, 2009
KO/TKOR1 · 3:58
VFC 28 - Throwdown
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
W
VS Marshall MartinMay 1, 2009
SubmissionR1 · 3:04
VFC 27 - Mayhem
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
W
VS Willie DaleDec 5, 2008
KO/TKOR1 · N/A
VFC 25 - Primetime
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
KO (Punches)
W
VS Alex HarperSep 12, 2008
KO/TKOR1 · 1:15
MCC 16 - No Guts, No Glory
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
KO (Slam)
W
VS Ted WorthingtonJul 26, 2008
DecisionR3 · 5:00
VFC 24 - Revolution
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
// FAQ · 09_

CITATION-READY ANSWERS

Quick answers based on the public fighter profile and fight history shown on this page.

Lightweight. Professional record 15-2. Unranked at the time of indexing.

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// FORECAST_AVAILABLE_
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// LAST INDEX SYNC · 2026-10-28