// Roster Index›Flyweight›Dossier · Josh Alvarez
UFC FIGHTER PROFILE_
UFC · UNKNOWNFLYWEIGHT

Josh
Alvarez

NICKNAME"The Hedgehog"·GUAM
PROFESSIONAL RECORD
14-8-0
CURRENT FORM
1L STREAK
NEXT FIGHT
NO BOUT ANNOUNCED
Josh Alvarez
FIGHTER -
GUA
PROFILE PHOTO
PROFILE
PROFILE DATA! COLD
HEIGHT
6'0"
AGE
55
STANCE
ORTHODOX
WEIGHT
Flyweight
PROFESSIONAL RECORD_
22 BOUTS
WIN
14
LOSS
8
DRAW
0
WIN RATE
64%
14/22 bouts
FINISH RATE
86%
of professional wins
LAST 5 FIGHTS1L STREAK · 2-3
LLWWL
STYLE SUMMARY_
DATA: COLD
FIGHTING STYLE
WELL ROUNDED

Well rounded fighter with no dominant single weapon — 64% of wins are by sub.

KEY STRENGTHS

Drags it to the mat and hunts the finish — submission threat opens up off transitions.

KEY RISKS

Volume strikers have outpointed across full fights — output drops after R2.

// PERFORMANCE_METRICS · 02_

STRIKE / GRAPPLE
VITALS

Observed profile rates compared with stored weight-class medians where coverage exists. Any fallback uses a labeled UFC reference average; no fallback is presented as a division median.

// SLPM▼ BELOW
0.89
Strikes Landed/Min
Reference value 2.70
// STR. ACC▼ BELOW
37%
Striking Accuracy
Reference value 46%
// SAPM▼ BELOW
3.25
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Reference value 2.73
// STR. DEF▼ BELOW
47%
Striking Defense
Reference value 53%
// TD AVG▼ BELOW
0.00
Takedowns/15 min
Reference value 1.50
// TD ACC▼ BELOW
0%
Takedown Accuracy
Reference value 40%
// TD DEF▼ BELOW
0%
Takedown Defense
Reference value 59%
// SUB AVG▼ BELOW
0.00
Submissions/15 min
Reference value 0.50
// QUALITY_OF_COMPETITION · 02B_

WHO THEY
ACTUALLY FOUGHT

A record says how often a fighter won, not against whom. These ratings weigh every result by the opponent's strength at the time, then compare this fighter with the 60 rated fighters on the UFC flyweight roster (anyone with a UFC bout in the last two years or one booked).

THIN RATED HISTORY
// RATING
#55
against the 60 rated on the UFC flyweight roster · Elo 1482
// STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
2nd
percentile · average opponent rated 1489 at fight time (recent fights count most)
// RESULTS VS EXPECTATION
40th
percentile · fell short of what opponents' ratings predicted (-0.02 per fight)

5 rated fights · opponents rated in 24% of recorded fights · last rated fight MAR 18, 2016 · Few rated fights: read these as rough.

// CAREER_BREAKDOWN · 03_

WIN CONDITION MAP

Where the wins come from, and where the losses came from. Method splits by knockout, submission, and decision.

// WINS (14)
n = 14
KO/TKO · 3
SUB · 9
DEC · 2
3
KO/TKO
21%
9
SUB
64%
2
DEC
14%
// LOSSES (8)
n = 8
KO/TKO · 3
SUB · 1
DEC · 4
3
KO/TKO
38%
1
SUB
13%
4
DEC
50%
// PATH_TO_VICTORY_
86% FINISH
KO/TKOEARLY ROUNDS · 3 fights
21%
SUBANY ROUND · 9 fights
64%
DECFULL FIGHT · 2 fights
14%
Top win condition: ko/tko · early rounds.
// DNA_PROFILE · 04_

ATTRIBUTE FINGERPRINT

Evidence-backed 0-100 scores built only from observed profile stats and disclosed bout-history proxies. This is a fixed Blueprint scoring model, not a division percentile; missing axes remain unknown.

// DNA_PROFILE_
3 OBSERVED7 DERIVED0 UNKNOWN
// BENCHMARK
FIXED SCORE SCALE
// LINKED SAMPLE
22 BOUTS
// PROFILE UPDATED
JUL 10, 2026
// RECORDED SOURCE
ufcstats
Fighter attribute fingerprint10 of 10 attributes have evidence-backed scores on the Blueprint fixed scale. Unknown axes are not plotted and no score represents a division percentile.KO POWER31TD DEFENSE20GRAPPLING60CHIN72STRIKING22CARDIO57AGGRESSION25SUB THREAT20STR DEFENSE38RECOVERY57
// BANDS
90+ELITE
70-89STRONG
45-69AVERAGE
30-44BELOW
<30LOW
N/AUNKNOWN
Highest scored axis: Chin. Lowest scored axis: Sub Threat.
// EVIDENCE REGISTER
10 SCORED · 0 OPEN
KO Power31
DERIVED PROXY

KO wins divided by total career wins

N=14 wins
TD Defense20
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed takedown defense rate (0%)

Grappling60
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rate

Chin72
DERIVED PROXY

KO-loss durability proxy from career record

N=22 bouts
Striking22
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed striking volume and accuracy

Cardio57
DERIVED PROXY

Long-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win share

Aggression25
DERIVED PROXY

Activity proxy from observed strike and takedown volume

Sub Threat20
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed submission rate (0 per 15 min)

Str Defense38
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed striking defense rate (47%)

Recovery57
DERIVED PROXY

Share of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.

N=8 losses
Fighter attribute fingerprint accessible data summary
AttributeScoreProvenanceEvidenceSample
KO Power31 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO wins divided by total career wins14 wins
TD Defense20 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved takedown defense rate (0%)Not recorded
Grappling60 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rateNot recorded
Chin72 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO-loss durability proxy from career record22 bouts
Striking22 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed striking volume and accuracyNot recorded
Cardio57 out of 100DERIVED PROXYLong-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win shareNot recorded
Aggression25 out of 100DERIVED PROXYActivity proxy from observed strike and takedown volumeNot recorded
Sub Threat20 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved submission rate (0 per 15 min)Not recorded
Str Defense38 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved striking defense rate (47%)Not recorded
Recovery57 out of 100DERIVED PROXYShare of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.8 losses
// CAREER_MOMENTUM · 05_

THE ARC SO FAR

Rolling momentum score (0-100) recomputed after every bout. Weighted blend of result, opponent context, and method-of-finish, designed to show the shape, not the destination.

// MOMENTUM_TIMELINE_
SCOREWINLOSS
0255075100APR 2008WAPR 2008WJUL 2008WNOV 2008WSEP 2009WDEC 2009LMAY 2010WMAY 2010LJUL 2010LNOV 2010WJUN 2011LAUG 2011LNOV 2011WDEC 2011WMAR 2012WAPR 2012WJUL 2012WDEC 2012LDEC 2013LMAY 2014WDEC 2015WMAR 2016LNOV 2016// SCORE

  1. Start, APR 2008, momentum score 45.
  2. Start, APR 2008, momentum score 55, SUB R2.
  3. Start, JUL 2008, momentum score 65, SUB R2.
  4. Start, NOV 2008, momentum score 74, SUB R2.
  5. Start, SEP 2009, momentum score 85, KO/TKO R1.
  6. Start, DEC 2009, momentum score 95, SUB R1.
  7. Start, MAY 2010, momentum score 88, DEC R3.
  8. Start, MAY 2010, momentum score 97, SUB R1.
  9. Start, JUL 2010, momentum score 90, DEC R3.
  10. Start, NOV 2010, momentum score 83, DEC R5.
  11. Start, JUN 2011, momentum score 93, SUB R1.
  12. Start, AUG 2011, momentum score 83, KO/TKO R1.
  13. Start, NOV 2011, momentum score 74, KO/TKO R1.
  14. Start, DEC 2011, momentum score 81, DEC R3.
  15. Start, MAR 2012, momentum score 91, KO/TKO R1.
  16. Start, APR 2012, momentum score 100, SUB R1.
  17. Start, JUL 2012, momentum score 100, SUB R1.
  18. Start, DEC 2012, momentum score 100, SUB R1.
  19. Start, DEC 2013, momentum score 93, SUB R2.
  20. Start, MAY 2014, momentum score 86, DEC R3.
  21. Start, DEC 2015, momentum score 95, KO/TKO R2.
  22. Start, MAR 2016, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  23. Start, NOV 2016, momentum score 90, KO/TKO R1.

Peaked at 100 (W vs Muna), bottomed at 45 (Debut). Current reading: 90.

// KILL_SHOT_MATRIX · 06_

WHEN THE FINISHES COME

Cross-tab of fight outcome by method and round. Reads top-down for method, left-right for round. Cyan intensity scales with frequency.

// METHOD × ROUND_
22/22 fights mapped
METHOD ↓ / ROUND →R1R2R3R4R5FREQ
KO/TKO
5
23%
1
5%
-
-
-
6
total
SUB
6
27%
4
18%
-
-
-
10
total
DEC
-
-
5
23%
-
1
5%
6
total
// PRIMARY KILL ZONE
R1-R2 KO/TKO · 6 of 22 mapped
// LATE-FIGHT GAP
No R5 finishes either way
// DECISION RATE
27%, fights rarely go the distance
// FIGHT_HISTORY · 08_

BOUT LOG
22 FIGHTS

Detailed bout records for the indexed tenure. Sorted most recent first.

L
VS Go MinamideNov 18, 2016
KO/TKOR1 · 0:24
PXC 55 - Aguon vs. Jones
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Kick to the Body and Punches)
W
VS Yutaro MuramotoMar 18, 2016
DecisionR3 · 5:00
PXC - Pacific Xtreme Combat 52
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Mike SanchezDec 4, 2015
KO/TKOR2 · 2:25
PXC - Pacific Xtreme Combat 50
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
L
VS Rey DocyogenMay 2, 2014
DecisionR3 · 5:00
One FC 15 - Rise of Heroes
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
L
VS Koetsu OkazakiDec 6, 2013
SubmissionR2 · 3:13
One FC 13 - Moment of Truth
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
W
VS Mark NuiqueDec 14, 2012
SubmissionR1 · 3:46
Trench Warz 16 - Fire Power
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
W
VS Mark NuiqueJul 28, 2012
SubmissionR1 · 0:00
PXC - Pacific Xtreme Combat 32
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Armbar)
W
VS Jay MunaApr 20, 2012
SubmissionR1 · 2:45
Rites of Passage 12 - Unstoppable
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Armbar)
W
VS Jin HiranoMar 3, 2012
KO/TKOR1 · N/A
PXC - Pacific Xtreme Combat 30
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
W
VS Josh DuenasDec 16, 2011
DecisionR3 · 5:00
Trench Warz 15 - Supremacy
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Split)
L
VS Alvin CacdacNov 26, 2011
KO/TKOR1 · 0:00
PXC - Pacific Xtreme Combat 28
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
L
VS Ale CaliAug 20, 2011
KO/TKO— · 0:00
PXC - Pacific Xtreme Combat 26
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
// FAQ · 09_

CITATION-READY ANSWERS

Quick answers based on the public fighter profile and fight history shown on this page.

Flyweight. Professional record 14-8. Unranked at the time of indexing.

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// FORECAST_AVAILABLE_
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// LAST INDEX SYNC · 2026-10-28