// Roster Index›Welterweight›Dossier · Justin Guthrie
UFC FIGHTER PROFILE_
UFC · UNKNOWNWELTERWEIGHT

Justin
Guthrie

NICKNAME"The Pain Train"·UNITED STATES
PROFESSIONAL RECORD
18-9-0
CURRENT FORM
1L STREAK
NEXT FIGHT
NO BOUT ANNOUNCED
Justin Guthrie
FIGHTER -
UNI🇺🇸
PROFILE PHOTO
PROFILE
PROFILE DATA! COLD
HEIGHT
6'1"
AGE
45
WEIGHT
Welterweight
PROFESSIONAL RECORD_
27 BOUTS
WIN
18
LOSS
9
DRAW
0
WIN RATE
67%
18/27 bouts
FINISH RATE
67%
of professional wins
LAST 5 FIGHTS1L STREAK · 2-3
WLLWL
STYLE SUMMARY_
DATA: COLD
FIGHTING STYLE
SUBMISSION HUNTER

Submission hunter fighter with no dominant single weapon — 39% of wins are by sub.

KEY STRENGTHS

Drags it to the mat and hunts the finish — submission threat opens up off transitions.

KEY RISKS

Pressure boxers willing to wade into the pocket have found chins on offer; cardio drops in late rounds.

// PERFORMANCE_METRICS · 02_

STRIKE / GRAPPLE
VITALS

Observed profile rates compared with stored weight-class medians where coverage exists. Any fallback uses a labeled UFC reference average; no fallback is presented as a division median.

// SLPM▼ BELOW
0.16
Strikes Landed/Min
Reference value 2.65
// STR. ACC▼ BELOW
33%
Striking Accuracy
Reference value 47%
// SAPM▼ BELOW
3.74
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Reference value 2.74
// STR. DEF▼ BELOW
14%
Striking Defense
Reference value 53%
// TD AVG▲ ABOVE
2.44
Takedowns/15 min
Reference value 1.50
// TD ACC▼ BELOW
25%
Takedown Accuracy
Reference value 40%
// TD DEF▼ BELOW
0%
Takedown Defense
Reference value 59%
// SUB AVG▲ ABOVE
4.90
Submissions/15 min
Reference value 0.50
// QUALITY_OF_COMPETITION · 02B_

WHO THEY
ACTUALLY FOUGHT

A record says how often a fighter won, not against whom. These ratings weigh every result by the opponent's strength at the time, then compare this fighter with the 99 rated fighters on the UFC welterweight roster (anyone with a UFC bout in the last two years or one booked).

// RATING
#67
against the 99 rated on the UFC welterweight roster · Elo 1531
// STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
12th
percentile · average opponent rated 1508 at fight time (recent fights count most)
// RESULTS VS EXPECTATION
24th
percentile · fell short of what opponents' ratings predicted (-0.11 per fight)

15 rated fights · opponents rated in 56% of recorded fights · last rated fight MAY 21, 2016

// CAREER_BREAKDOWN · 03_

WIN CONDITION MAP

Where the wins come from, and where the losses came from. Method splits by knockout, submission, and decision.

// WINS (18)
n = 18
KO/TKO · 5
SUB · 7
DEC · 6
5
KO/TKO
28%
7
SUB
39%
6
DEC
33%
// LOSSES (9)
n = 9
KO/TKO · 5
SUB · 3
DEC · 1
5
KO/TKO
56%
3
SUB
33%
1
DEC
11%
// PATH_TO_VICTORY_
67% FINISH
KO/TKOEARLY ROUNDS · 5 fights
28%
SUBANY ROUND · 7 fights
39%
DECFULL FIGHT · 6 fights
33%
Top win condition: ko/tko · early rounds.
// DNA_PROFILE · 04_

ATTRIBUTE FINGERPRINT

Evidence-backed 0-100 scores built only from observed profile stats and disclosed bout-history proxies. This is a fixed Blueprint scoring model, not a division percentile; missing axes remain unknown.

// DNA_PROFILE_
3 OBSERVED7 DERIVED0 UNKNOWN
// BENCHMARK
FIXED SCORE SCALE
// LINKED SAMPLE
27 BOUTS
// PROFILE UPDATED
JUL 10, 2026
// RECORDED SOURCE
ufcstats
Fighter attribute fingerprint10 of 10 attributes have evidence-backed scores on the Blueprint fixed scale. Unknown axes are not plotted and no score represents a division percentile.KO POWER40TD DEFENSE20GRAPPLING69CHIN66STRIKING20CARDIO61AGGRESSION25SUB THREAT100STR DEFENSE20RECOVERY75
// BANDS
90+ELITE
70-89STRONG
45-69AVERAGE
30-44BELOW
<30LOW
N/AUNKNOWN
Highest scored axis: Sub Threat. Lowest scored axis: Str Defense.
// EVIDENCE REGISTER
10 SCORED · 0 OPEN
KO Power40
DERIVED PROXY

KO wins divided by total career wins

N=18 wins
TD Defense20
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed takedown defense rate (0%)

Grappling69
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rate

Chin66
DERIVED PROXY

KO-loss durability proxy from career record

N=27 bouts
Striking20
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed striking volume and accuracy

Cardio61
DERIVED PROXY

Long-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win share

Aggression25
DERIVED PROXY

Activity proxy from observed strike and takedown volume

Sub Threat100
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed submission rate (4 per 15 min)

Str Defense20
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed striking defense rate (14%)

Recovery75
DERIVED PROXY

Share of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.

N=9 losses
Fighter attribute fingerprint accessible data summary
AttributeScoreProvenanceEvidenceSample
KO Power40 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO wins divided by total career wins18 wins
TD Defense20 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved takedown defense rate (0%)Not recorded
Grappling69 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rateNot recorded
Chin66 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO-loss durability proxy from career record27 bouts
Striking20 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed striking volume and accuracyNot recorded
Cardio61 out of 100DERIVED PROXYLong-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win shareNot recorded
Aggression25 out of 100DERIVED PROXYActivity proxy from observed strike and takedown volumeNot recorded
Sub Threat100 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved submission rate (4 per 15 min)Not recorded
Str Defense20 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved striking defense rate (14%)Not recorded
Recovery75 out of 100DERIVED PROXYShare of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.9 losses
// CAREER_MOMENTUM · 05_

THE ARC SO FAR

Rolling momentum score (0-100) recomputed after every bout. Weighted blend of result, opponent context, and method-of-finish, designed to show the shape, not the destination.

// MOMENTUM_TIMELINE_
SCOREWINLOSS
0255075100MAR 2007WMAR 2007WJUL 2007LJUL 2007WAUG 2007WNOV 2007LMAR 2008WJUL 2008WDEC 2008WAUG 2009WOCT 2009WDEC 2009WAPR 2010LAUG 2010WSEP 2010LDEC 2010WAUG 2011WSEP 2011WNOV 2011WMAY 2012WMAY 2012LJUN 2012LMAR 2013WSEP 2014LDEC 2014LMAR 2015WJUN 2015LMAY 2016// SCORE

  1. Start, MAR 2007, momentum score 45.
  2. Start, MAR 2007, momentum score 56, KO/TKO R1.
  3. Start, JUL 2007, momentum score 65, SUB R1.
  4. Start, JUL 2007, momentum score 56, KO/TKO R1.
  5. Start, AUG 2007, momentum score 65, SUB R1.
  6. Start, NOV 2007, momentum score 76, KO/TKO R1.
  7. Start, MAR 2008, momentum score 69, KO/TKO R2.
  8. Start, JUL 2008, momentum score 79, SUB R2.
  9. Start, DEC 2008, momentum score 89, KO/TKO R1.
  10. Start, AUG 2009, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R1.
  11. Start, OCT 2009, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  12. Start, DEC 2009, momentum score 100, SUB R1.
  13. Start, APR 2010, momentum score 100, DEC R2.
  14. Start, AUG 2010, momentum score 93, SUB R1.
  15. Start, SEP 2010, momentum score 100, SUB R1.
  16. Start, DEC 2010, momentum score 93, SUB R2.
  17. Start, AUG 2011, momentum score 100, SUB R1.
  18. Start, SEP 2011, momentum score 100, DEC R5.
  19. Start, NOV 2011, momentum score 100, DEC R5.
  20. Start, MAY 2012, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  21. Start, MAY 2012, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  22. Start, JUN 2012, momentum score 93, SUB R1.
  23. Start, MAR 2013, momentum score 86, DEC R3.
  24. Start, SEP 2014, momentum score 97, KO/TKO R1.
  25. Start, DEC 2014, momentum score 87, KO/TKO R1.
  26. Start, MAR 2015, momentum score 80, KO/TKO R3.
  27. Start, JUN 2015, momentum score 90, SUB R2.
  28. Start, MAY 2016, momentum score 80, KO/TKO R1.

Peaked at 100 (W vs Strickland), bottomed at 45 (Debut). Current reading: 80.

// KILL_SHOT_MATRIX · 06_

WHEN THE FINISHES COME

Cross-tab of fight outcome by method and round. Reads top-down for method, left-right for round. Cyan intensity scales with frequency.

// METHOD × ROUND_
27/27 fights mapped
METHOD ↓ / ROUND →R1R2R3R4R5FREQ
KO/TKO
8
30%
1
4%
1
4%
-
-
10
total
SUB
7
26%
3
11%
-
-
-
10
total
DEC
-
1
4%
4
15%
-
2
7%
7
total
// PRIMARY KILL ZONE
R1-R2 KO/TKO · 9 of 27 mapped
// LATE-FIGHT GAP
No R5 finishes either way
// DECISION RATE
26%, fights rarely go the distance
// FIGHT_HISTORY · 08_

BOUT LOG
27 FIGHTS

Detailed bout records for the indexed tenure. Sorted most recent first.

L
VS Maki PitoloMay 21, 2016
KO/TKOR1 · 0:48
VFC 50 - Victory Fighting Championship 50
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
W
VS Steven MannJun 19, 2015
SubmissionR2 · 1:09
Bellator 138 - Unfinished Business
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Brabo Choke)
L
VS Bobby VoelkerMar 7, 2015
KO/TKOR3 · 3:09
Shamrock FC - Heavy Artillery
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
L
VS Adam StroupDec 13, 2014
KO/TKOR1 · 2:45
SCL - Certifield Violence
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Knees)
W
VS Jason ClaytonSep 13, 2014
KO/TKOR1 · 1:23
NMEF - Annihilation 52
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Injury)
L
VS Jason ClaytonMar 9, 2013
DecisionR3 · 5:00
GJFN - Grand Junction Fight Night 2
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Split)
L
VS Jorge SantiagoJun 15, 2012
SubmissionR1 · 1:34
Titan FC 23 - Fight for the Troops
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Inverted Heel Hook)
W
VS John MalbroughMay 26, 2012
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UWF - Tournament of Warriors Round 2
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Jonathan KnutsonMay 4, 2012
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UWF - Tournament of Warriors Round 1
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Brendan SeguinNov 19, 2011
DecisionR5 · 5:00
IFL 39 - Caged Apocalypse
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Gilbert SmithSep 17, 2011
DecisionR5 · 5:00
NMEF - Annihilation 34
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Mike BernhardAug 19, 2011
SubmissionR1 · 4:45
Fight Time 6 - Pride and Glory
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Guillotine Choke)
// FAQ · 09_

CITATION-READY ANSWERS

Quick answers based on the public fighter profile and fight history shown on this page.

Welterweight. Professional record 18-9. Unranked at the time of indexing.

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// FORECAST_AVAILABLE_
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// LAST INDEX SYNC · 2026-10-28