// Roster Index›Welterweight›Dossier · Matt Dwyer
UFC FIGHTER PROFILE_
UFC · UNKNOWNWELTERWEIGHT

Matt
Dwyer

NICKNAME"N/A"·CANADA
PROFESSIONAL RECORD
11-9-0
CURRENT FORM
5L STREAK
NEXT FIGHT
NO BOUT ANNOUNCED
Matt Dwyer
FIGHTER -
CAN🇨🇦
PROFILE PHOTO
PROFILE
PROFILE DATA! COLD
HEIGHT
6'4"
REACH
6'4"
AGE
36
STANCE
ORTHODOX
WEIGHT
Welterweight
PROFESSIONAL RECORD_
20 BOUTS
WIN
11
LOSS
9
DRAW
0
WIN RATE
55%
11/20 bouts
FINISH RATE
82%
of professional wins
LAST 5 FIGHTS5L STREAK · 0-5
LLLLL
STYLE SUMMARY_
DATA: COLD
FIGHTING STYLE
WELL ROUNDED

Well rounded fighter with elite knockout power — 82% of wins are by ko/tko.

KEY STRENGTHS

Closes distance and trades — most wins come from heavy hands inside the first two rounds.

KEY RISKS

Volume strikers have outpointed across full fights — output drops after R2.

// PERFORMANCE_METRICS · 02_

STRIKE / GRAPPLE
VITALS

Observed profile rates compared with stored weight-class medians where coverage exists. Any fallback uses a labeled UFC reference average; no fallback is presented as a division median.

// SLPM▼ BELOW
2.57
Strikes Landed/Min
Reference value 2.65
// STR. ACC▼ BELOW
34%
Striking Accuracy
Reference value 47%
// SAPM▼ BELOW
3.24
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Reference value 2.74
// STR. DEF▲ ABOVE
54%
Striking Defense
Reference value 53%
// TD AVG▼ BELOW
0.44
Takedowns/15 min
Reference value 1.50
// TD ACC▼ BELOW
10%
Takedown Accuracy
Reference value 40%
// TD DEF▲ ABOVE
60%
Takedown Defense
Reference value 59%
// SUB AVG▼ BELOW
0.00
Submissions/15 min
Reference value 0.50
// QUALITY_OF_COMPETITION · 02B_

WHO THEY
ACTUALLY FOUGHT

A record says how often a fighter won, not against whom. These ratings weigh every result by the opponent's strength at the time, then compare this fighter with the 99 rated fighters on the UFC welterweight roster (anyone with a UFC bout in the last two years or one booked).

// RATING
#93
against the 99 rated on the UFC welterweight roster · Elo 1480
// STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
28th
percentile · average opponent rated 1529 at fight time (recent fights count most)
// RESULTS VS EXPECTATION
2nd
percentile · fell short of what opponents' ratings predicted (-0.30 per fight)

15 rated fights · opponents rated in 75% of recorded fights · last rated fight DEC 1, 2022

// CAREER_BREAKDOWN · 03_

WIN CONDITION MAP

Where the wins come from, and where the losses came from. Method splits by knockout, submission, and decision.

// WINS (11)
n = 11
KO/TKO · 9
DEC · 2
9
KO/TKO
82%
0
SUB
0%
2
DEC
18%
// LOSSES (9)
n = 9
KO/TKO · 4
DEC · 5
4
KO/TKO
44%
0
SUB
0%
5
DEC
56%
// PATH_TO_VICTORY_
82% FINISH
KO/TKOEARLY ROUNDS · 9 fights
82%
DECFULL FIGHT · 2 fights
18%
Top win condition: ko/tko · early rounds.
// DNA_PROFILE · 04_

ATTRIBUTE FINGERPRINT

Evidence-backed 0-100 scores built only from observed profile stats and disclosed bout-history proxies. This is a fixed Blueprint scoring model, not a division percentile; missing axes remain unknown.

// DNA_PROFILE_
3 OBSERVED7 DERIVED0 UNKNOWN
// BENCHMARK
FIXED SCORE SCALE
// LINKED SAMPLE
20 BOUTS
// PROFILE UPDATED
OCT 3, 2026
// RECORDED SOURCE
ufcstats
Fighter attribute fingerprint10 of 10 attributes have evidence-backed scores on the Blueprint fixed scale. Unknown axes are not plotted and no score represents a division percentile.KO POWER100TD DEFENSE44GRAPPLING6CHIN64STRIKING24CARDIO63AGGRESSION25SUB THREAT20STR DEFENSE53RECOVERY38
// BANDS
90+ELITE
70-89STRONG
45-69AVERAGE
30-44BELOW
<30LOW
N/AUNKNOWN
Highest scored axis: KO Power. Lowest scored axis: Grappling.
// EVIDENCE REGISTER
10 SCORED · 0 OPEN
KO Power100
DERIVED PROXY

KO wins divided by total career wins

N=11 wins
TD Defense44
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed takedown defense rate (60%)

Grappling6
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rate

Chin64
DERIVED PROXY

KO-loss durability proxy from career record

N=20 bouts
Striking24
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed striking volume and accuracy

Cardio63
DERIVED PROXY

Long-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win share

Aggression25
DERIVED PROXY

Activity proxy from observed strike and takedown volume

Sub Threat20
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed submission rate (0 per 15 min)

Str Defense53
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed striking defense rate (54%)

Recovery38
DERIVED PROXY

Share of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.

N=9 losses
Fighter attribute fingerprint accessible data summary
AttributeScoreProvenanceEvidenceSample
KO Power100 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO wins divided by total career wins11 wins
TD Defense44 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved takedown defense rate (60%)Not recorded
Grappling6 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rateNot recorded
Chin64 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO-loss durability proxy from career record20 bouts
Striking24 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed striking volume and accuracyNot recorded
Cardio63 out of 100DERIVED PROXYLong-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win shareNot recorded
Aggression25 out of 100DERIVED PROXYActivity proxy from observed strike and takedown volumeNot recorded
Sub Threat20 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved submission rate (0 per 15 min)Not recorded
Str Defense53 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved striking defense rate (54%)Not recorded
Recovery38 out of 100DERIVED PROXYShare of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.9 losses
// CAREER_MOMENTUM · 05_

THE ARC SO FAR

Rolling momentum score (0-100) recomputed after every bout. Weighted blend of result, opponent context, and method-of-finish, designed to show the shape, not the destination.

// MOMENTUM_TIMELINE_
SCOREWINLOSS
0255075100AUG 2011WAUG 2011WFEB 2012LAPR 2012WJUL 2012WNOV 2012WJUN 2013WJAN 2014WMAY 2014LOCT 2014WFEB 2015LJUL 2015LJAN 2016WJUL 2016WJAN 2018WJUL 2018LJAN 2019LSEP 2019LDEC 2019LMAR 2021LDEC 2022// SCORE

  1. Start, AUG 2011, momentum score 45.
  2. Start, AUG 2011, momentum score 56, KO/TKO R1.
  3. Start, FEB 2012, momentum score 66, KO/TKO R1.
  4. Start, APR 2012, momentum score 56, KO/TKO R1.
  5. Start, JUL 2012, momentum score 67, KO/TKO R1.
  6. Start, NOV 2012, momentum score 77, KO/TKO R1.
  7. Start, JUN 2013, momentum score 88, KO/TKO R1.
  8. Start, JAN 2014, momentum score 97, KO/TKO R3.
  9. Start, MAY 2014, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R2.
  10. Start, OCT 2014, momentum score 90, KO/TKO R1.
  11. Start, FEB 2015, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R1.
  12. Start, JUL 2015, momentum score 93, DEC R3.
  13. Start, JAN 2016, momentum score 86, DEC R3.
  14. Start, JUL 2016, momentum score 93, DEC R3.
  15. Start, JAN 2018, momentum score 100, DEC R5.
  16. Start, JUL 2018, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R1.
  17. Start, JAN 2019, momentum score 93, DEC R5.
  18. Start, SEP 2019, momentum score 86, DEC R5.
  19. Start, DEC 2019, momentum score 79, DEC R3.
  20. Start, MAR 2021, momentum score 72, KO/TKO R3.
  21. Start, DEC 2022, momentum score 65, KO/TKO R2.

Peaked at 100 (W vs Johnson), bottomed at 45 (Debut). Current reading: 65.

// KILL_SHOT_MATRIX · 06_

WHEN THE FINISHES COME

Cross-tab of fight outcome by method and round. Reads top-down for method, left-right for round. Cyan intensity scales with frequency.

// METHOD × ROUND_
20/20 fights mapped
METHOD ↓ / ROUND →R1R2R3R4R5FREQ
KO/TKO
9
45%
2
10%
2
10%
-
-
13
total
SUB
-
-
-
-
-
0
total
DEC
-
-
4
20%
-
3
15%
7
total
// PRIMARY KILL ZONE
R1-R2 KO/TKO · 11 of 20 mapped
// LATE-FIGHT GAP
No R5 finishes either way
// DECISION RATE
35%, fights often go the distance
// FIGHT_HISTORY · 08_

BOUT LOG
20 FIGHTS

Detailed bout records for the indexed tenure. Sorted most recent first.

L
VS Christophe Van DijckDec 1, 2022
KO/TKOR2 · 4:28
BFL 75 - Battlefield Fight League
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
KO (Knee and Punches)
L
VS Elias TheodorouMar 13, 2021
KO/TKOR3 · 1:20
Rise FC 6 - Rise Fighting Championship: Fighting the Stigma
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
L
VS Mikhail RagozinDec 14, 2019
DecisionR3 · 5:00
RCC 7 - Russian Cagefighting Championship 7
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
L
VS K.B. BhullarSep 27, 2019
DecisionR5 · 5:00
Unified MMA 38 - 10th Anniversary
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
L
VS Chris CurtisJan 25, 2019
DecisionR5 · 5:00
Z Promotions - Fight Night 9: Lethbridge
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Majority)
W
VS Dominique SteeleJul 21, 2018
KO/TKOR1 · 4:59
XFFC 18 - Diablo Fight Series
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
KO (Punch)
W
VS Chris AndersonJan 13, 2018
DecisionR5 · 5:00
BFL 53 - Battlefield Fight League
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Split)
W
VS Jesse RonsonJul 8, 2016
DecisionR3 · 5:00
XFFC 10 - Out of the Ashes
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
L
VS Randy BrownJan 30, 2016
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC on Fox 18 - Johnson vs. Bader
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
L
VS Alan JoubanJul 15, 2015
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC Fight Night 71 - Mir vs. Duffee
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS William MacarioFeb 22, 2015
KO/TKOR1 · 3:14
UFC Fight Night 61 - Bigfoot vs. Mir
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
KO (Superman Punch)
L
VS Albert TumenovOct 4, 2014
KO/TKOR1 · 1:03
UFC Fight Night 54 - MacDonald vs. Saffiedine
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
KO (Head Kick and Punches)
// FAQ · 09_

CITATION-READY ANSWERS

Quick answers based on the public fighter profile and fight history shown on this page.

Welterweight. Professional record 11-9. Unranked at the time of indexing.

Research Matt Dwyer

Compare this fighter head to head, check the next UFC card, read current matchup analysis, or verify settled Blueprint MMA forecasts.

Compare Matt DwyerUpcoming UFC scheduleFight analysis archivePrediction track record
// FORECAST_AVAILABLE_
Want the next-fight forecast?
The pick is free.

Every published fight shows its winner and win probability free. The full debate, method and round open with Sharp or an Event Pass.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS ALL FIGHTERS
BLUEPRINT/MMA · DOSSIER ENGINE v3.2
// LAST INDEX SYNC · 2026-10-28