// Roster Index›Welterweight›Dossier · Miguel Baeza
UFC FIGHTER PROFILE_
UFC · UNKNOWNWELTERWEIGHT

Miguel
Baeza

NICKNAME"Caramel Thunder"·UNITED STATES
PROFESSIONAL RECORD
10-4-0
CURRENT FORM
4L STREAK
NEXT FIGHT
NO BOUT ANNOUNCED
Miguel Baeza
FIGHTER -
UNI🇺🇸
PROFILE PHOTO
PROFILE
PROFILE DATA! COLD
HEIGHT
6'2"
REACH
6'2"
AGE
34
STANCE
ORTHODOX
WEIGHT
Welterweight
PROFESSIONAL RECORD_
14 BOUTS
WIN
10
LOSS
4
DRAW
0
WIN RATE
71%
10/14 bouts
FINISH RATE
80%
of professional wins
LAST 5 FIGHTS4L STREAK · 1-4
WLLLL
STYLE SUMMARY_
DATA: COLD
FIGHTING STYLE
WELL ROUNDED

Well rounded fighter with elite knockout power — 70% of wins are by ko/tko.

KEY STRENGTHS

Closes distance and trades — most wins come from heavy hands inside the first two rounds.

KEY RISKS

Pressure boxers willing to wade into the pocket have found chins on offer; cardio drops in late rounds.

// PERFORMANCE_METRICS · 02_

STRIKE / GRAPPLE
VITALS

Observed profile rates compared with stored weight-class medians where coverage exists. Any fallback uses a labeled UFC reference average; no fallback is presented as a division median.

// SLPM▲ ABOVE
4.09
Strikes Landed/Min
Reference value 2.65
// STR. ACC▲ ABOVE
49%
Striking Accuracy
Reference value 47%
// SAPM▼ BELOW
5.92
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Reference value 2.74
// STR. DEF▼ BELOW
46%
Striking Defense
Reference value 53%
// TD AVG▼ BELOW
0.36
Takedowns/15 min
Reference value 1.50
// TD ACC▼ BELOW
22%
Takedown Accuracy
Reference value 40%
// TD DEF▼ BELOW
54%
Takedown Defense
Reference value 59%
// SUB AVG▲ ABOVE
2.00
Submissions/15 min
Reference value 0.50
// QUALITY_OF_COMPETITION · 02B_

WHO THEY
ACTUALLY FOUGHT

A record says how often a fighter won, not against whom. These ratings weigh every result by the opponent's strength at the time, then compare this fighter with the 99 rated fighters on the UFC welterweight roster (anyone with a UFC bout in the last two years or one booked).

// RATING
#93
against the 99 rated on the UFC welterweight roster · Elo 1481
// STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
47th
percentile · average opponent rated 1555 at fight time (recent fights count most)
// RESULTS VS EXPECTATION
6th
percentile · fell short of what opponents' ratings predicted (-0.23 per fight)

8 rated fights · opponents rated in 57% of recorded fights · last rated fight JUN 8, 2024

// CAREER_BREAKDOWN · 03_

WIN CONDITION MAP

Where the wins come from, and where the losses came from. Method splits by knockout, submission, and decision.

// WINS (10)
n = 10
KO/TKO · 7
SUB · 1
DEC · 2
7
KO/TKO
70%
1
SUB
10%
2
DEC
20%
// LOSSES (4)
n = 4
KO/TKO · 2
DEC · 2
2
KO/TKO
50%
0
SUB
0%
2
DEC
50%
// PATH_TO_VICTORY_
80% FINISH
KO/TKOEARLY ROUNDS · 7 fights
70%
SUBANY ROUND · 1 fights
10%
DECFULL FIGHT · 2 fights
20%
Top win condition: ko/tko · early rounds.
// DNA_PROFILE · 04_

ATTRIBUTE FINGERPRINT

Evidence-backed 0-100 scores built only from observed profile stats and disclosed bout-history proxies. This is a fixed Blueprint scoring model, not a division percentile; missing axes remain unknown.

// DNA_PROFILE_
3 OBSERVED7 DERIVED0 UNKNOWN
// BENCHMARK
FIXED SCORE SCALE
// LINKED SAMPLE
14 BOUTS
// PROFILE UPDATED
OCT 25, 2026
// RECORDED SOURCE
ufcstats
Fighter attribute fingerprint10 of 10 attributes have evidence-backed scores on the Blueprint fixed scale. Unknown axes are not plotted and no score represents a division percentile.KO POWER100TD DEFENSE31GRAPPLING48CHIN71STRIKING58CARDIO63AGGRESSION29SUB THREAT100STR DEFENSE36RECOVERY0
// BANDS
90+ELITE
70-89STRONG
45-69AVERAGE
30-44BELOW
<30LOW
N/AUNKNOWN
Highest scored axis: KO Power. Lowest scored axis: Recovery.
// EVIDENCE REGISTER
10 SCORED · 0 OPEN
KO Power100
DERIVED PROXY

KO wins divided by total career wins

N=10 wins
TD Defense31
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed takedown defense rate (54%)

Grappling48
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rate

Chin71
DERIVED PROXY

KO-loss durability proxy from career record

N=14 bouts
Striking58
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed striking volume and accuracy

Cardio63
DERIVED PROXY

Long-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win share

Aggression29
DERIVED PROXY

Activity proxy from observed strike and takedown volume

Sub Threat100
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed submission rate (2 per 15 min)

Str Defense36
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed striking defense rate (46%)

Recovery0
DERIVED PROXY

Share of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.

N=4 losses
Fighter attribute fingerprint accessible data summary
AttributeScoreProvenanceEvidenceSample
KO Power100 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO wins divided by total career wins10 wins
TD Defense31 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved takedown defense rate (54%)Not recorded
Grappling48 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rateNot recorded
Chin71 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO-loss durability proxy from career record14 bouts
Striking58 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed striking volume and accuracyNot recorded
Cardio63 out of 100DERIVED PROXYLong-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win shareNot recorded
Aggression29 out of 100DERIVED PROXYActivity proxy from observed strike and takedown volumeNot recorded
Sub Threat100 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved submission rate (2 per 15 min)Not recorded
Str Defense36 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved striking defense rate (46%)Not recorded
Recovery0 out of 100DERIVED PROXYShare of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.4 losses
// CAREER_MOMENTUM · 05_

THE ARC SO FAR

Rolling momentum score (0-100) recomputed after every bout. Weighted blend of result, opponent context, and method-of-finish, designed to show the shape, not the destination.

// MOMENTUM_TIMELINE_
SCOREWINLOSS
0255075100AUG 2015WAUG 2015WAUG 2016WOCT 2016WAPR 2017WSEP 2017WDEC 2018WJUN 2019WOCT 2019WMAY 2020WNOV 2020LJUN 2021LNOV 2021LAPR 2022LJUN 2024// SCORE

  1. Start, AUG 2015, momentum score 45.
  2. Start, AUG 2015, momentum score 56, KO/TKO R1.
  3. Start, AUG 2016, momentum score 66, KO/TKO R1.
  4. Start, OCT 2016, momentum score 77, KO/TKO R1.
  5. Start, APR 2017, momentum score 86, KO/TKO R2.
  6. Start, SEP 2017, momentum score 93, DEC R3.
  7. Start, DEC 2018, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R1.
  8. Start, JUN 2019, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  9. Start, OCT 2019, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R2.
  10. Start, MAY 2020, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R2.
  11. Start, NOV 2020, momentum score 100, SUB R2.
  12. Start, JUN 2021, momentum score 93, DEC R3.
  13. Start, NOV 2021, momentum score 86, KO/TKO R3.
  14. Start, APR 2022, momentum score 76, KO/TKO R1.
  15. Start, JUN 2024, momentum score 69, DEC R3.

Peaked at 100 (W vs Colquhoun), bottomed at 45 (Debut). Current reading: 69.

// KILL_SHOT_MATRIX · 06_

WHEN THE FINISHES COME

Cross-tab of fight outcome by method and round. Reads top-down for method, left-right for round. Cyan intensity scales with frequency.

// METHOD × ROUND_
14/14 fights mapped
METHOD ↓ / ROUND →R1R2R3R4R5FREQ
KO/TKO
5
36%
3
21%
1
7%
-
-
9
total
SUB
-
1
7%
-
-
-
1
total
DEC
-
-
4
29%
-
-
4
total
// PRIMARY KILL ZONE
R1-R2 KO/TKO · 8 of 14 mapped
// LATE-FIGHT GAP
No R5 finishes either way
// DECISION RATE
29%, fights rarely go the distance
// FIGHT_HISTORY · 08_

BOUT LOG
14 FIGHTS

Detailed bout records for the indexed tenure. Sorted most recent first.

L
VS Punahele SorianoJun 8, 2024
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC on ESPN 57 - Cannonier vs. Imavov
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
L
VS Andre FialhoApr 16, 2022
KO/TKOR1 · 4:39
UFC on ESPN 34 - Luque vs. Muhammad 2
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
L
VS Kalinn WilliamsNov 13, 2021
KO/TKOR3 · 1:02
UFC Fight Night 197 - Holloway vs. Rodriguez
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
L
VS Santiago PonzinibbioJun 5, 2021
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFC Fight Night 189 - Rozenstruik vs. Sakai
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Takashi SatoNov 28, 2020
SubmissionR2 · 4:28
UFC on ESPN 18 - Smith vs. Clark
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
W
VS Matt BrownMay 16, 2020
KO/TKOR2 · 0:18
UFC on ESPN 8 - Overeem vs. Harris
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
W
VS Hector AldanaOct 12, 2019
KO/TKOR2 · 2:32
UFC Fight Night 161 - Jedrzejczyk vs. Waterson
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Leg Kick and Elbows)
W
VS Victor ReynaJun 25, 2019
DecisionR3 · 5:00
Dana White's Contender Series - Season 3, Episode 2
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Matthew ColquhounDec 15, 2018
KO/TKOR1 · 3:31
XFN 22 - Xtreme Fighting Nation 22
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
KO
W
VS Leo ValdiviaSep 1, 2017
DecisionR3 · 5:00
Fight Time Promotions - Fight Time 37
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Split)
W
VS Augustus D'AngeloApr 7, 2017
KO/TKOR2 · 1:14
Fight Time Promotions - Fight Time 36
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
W
VS Mike D'AngeloOct 21, 2016
KO/TKOR1 · 3:48
Fight Time Promotions - Fight Time 33
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
KO (Punches)
// FAQ · 09_

CITATION-READY ANSWERS

Quick answers based on the public fighter profile and fight history shown on this page.

Welterweight. Professional record 10-4. Unranked at the time of indexing.

Research Miguel Baeza

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// FORECAST_AVAILABLE_
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// LAST INDEX SYNC · 2026-10-28