// Roster Index›Middleweight›Dossier · Rafael Carvalho
UFC FIGHTER PROFILE_
UFC · UNKNOWNSTOCK 0MIDDLEWEIGHT

Rafael
Carvalho

NICKNAME"N/A"·BRAZIL
PROFESSIONAL RECORD
12-11-1
CURRENT FORM
1L STREAK
NEXT FIGHT
NO BOUT ANNOUNCED
Rafael Carvalho
FIGHTER -
BRA🇧🇷
PROFILE PHOTO
PROFILE
PROFILE DATA! COLD
HEIGHT
6'3"
AGE
40
WEIGHT
Middleweight
PROFESSIONAL RECORD_
24 BOUTS
WIN
12
LOSS
11
DRAW
1
WIN RATE
50%
12/24 bouts
FINISH RATE
58%
of professional wins
LAST 5 FIGHTS1L STREAK · 2-3
WLLWL
Form trend 0 over the last 90 days.
STYLE SUMMARY_
DATA: COLD
FIGHTING STYLE
WELL ROUNDED

Well rounded fighter with no dominant single weapon — 50% of wins are by dec.

KEY STRENGTHS

Banks rounds on the scorecard — pace and positioning over splash damage.

KEY RISKS

Top-position grapplers who can chain transitions force submissions when scrambles open up.

// PERFORMANCE_METRICS · 02_

STRIKE / GRAPPLE
VITALS

Observed profile rates compared with stored weight-class medians where coverage exists. Any fallback uses a labeled UFC reference average; no fallback is presented as a division median.

// SLPM▼ BELOW
1.94
Strikes Landed/Min
Reference value 2.70
// STR. ACC▲ ABOVE
50%
Striking Accuracy
Reference value 47%
// SAPM▲ ABOVE
1.84
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Reference value 2.72
// STR. DEF▲ ABOVE
54%
Striking Defense
Reference value 53%
// TD AVG▲ ABOVE
2.77
Takedowns/15 min
Reference value 1.50
// TD ACC▼ BELOW
40%
Takedown Accuracy
Reference value 40%
// TD DEF▲ ABOVE
70%
Takedown Defense
Reference value 58%
// SUB AVG▼ BELOW
0.00
Submissions/15 min
Reference value 0.50
// QUALITY_OF_COMPETITION · 02B_

WHO THEY
ACTUALLY FOUGHT

A record says how often a fighter won, not against whom. These ratings weigh every result by the opponent's strength at the time, then compare this fighter with the 90 rated fighters on the UFC middleweight roster (anyone with a UFC bout in the last two years or one booked).

// RATING
#66
against the 90 rated on the UFC middleweight roster · Elo 1515
// STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
44th
percentile · average opponent rated 1533 at fight time (recent fights count most)
// RESULTS VS EXPECTATION
17th
percentile · fell short of what opponents' ratings predicted (-0.18 per fight)

18 rated fights · opponents rated in 67% of recorded fights · last rated fight APR 13, 2024

// CAREER_BREAKDOWN · 03_

WIN CONDITION MAP

Where the wins come from, and where the losses came from. Method splits by knockout, submission, and decision.

// WINS (12)
n = 12
KO/TKO · 4
SUB · 3
DEC · 6
4
KO/TKO
33%
3
SUB
25%
6
DEC
50%
// LOSSES (11)
n = 11
KO/TKO · 2
SUB · 8
DEC · 3
2
KO/TKO
18%
8
SUB
73%
3
DEC
27%
// PATH_TO_VICTORY_
58% FINISH
KO/TKOEARLY ROUNDS · 4 fights
33%
SUBANY ROUND · 3 fights
25%
DECFULL FIGHT · 6 fights
50%
Top win condition: ko/tko · early rounds.
// DNA_PROFILE · 04_

ATTRIBUTE FINGERPRINT

Evidence-backed 0-100 scores built only from observed profile stats and disclosed bout-history proxies. This is a fixed Blueprint scoring model, not a division percentile; missing axes remain unknown.

// DNA_PROFILE_
3 OBSERVED7 DERIVED0 UNKNOWN
// BENCHMARK
FIXED SCORE SCALE
// LINKED SAMPLE
27 BOUTS
// PROFILE UPDATED
JUL 16, 2026
// RECORDED SOURCE
ufcstats
Fighter attribute fingerprint10 of 10 attributes have evidence-backed scores on the Blueprint fixed scale. Unknown axes are not plotted and no score represents a division percentile.KO POWER48TD DEFENSE67GRAPPLING60CHIN83STRIKING40CARDIO70AGGRESSION25SUB THREAT20STR DEFENSE53RECOVERY42
// BANDS
90+ELITE
70-89STRONG
45-69AVERAGE
30-44BELOW
<30LOW
N/AUNKNOWN
Highest scored axis: Chin. Lowest scored axis: Sub Threat.
// EVIDENCE REGISTER
10 SCORED · 0 OPEN
KO Power48
DERIVED PROXY

KO wins divided by total career wins

N=12 wins
TD Defense67
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed takedown defense rate (70%)

Grappling60
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rate

Chin83
DERIVED PROXY

KO-loss durability proxy from career record

N=24 bouts
Striking40
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed striking volume and accuracy

Cardio70
DERIVED PROXY

Long-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win share

Aggression25
DERIVED PROXY

Activity proxy from observed strike and takedown volume

Sub Threat20
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed submission rate (0 per 15 min)

Str Defense53
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed striking defense rate (54%)

Recovery42
DERIVED PROXY

Share of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.

N=13 losses
Fighter attribute fingerprint accessible data summary
AttributeScoreProvenanceEvidenceSample
KO Power48 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO wins divided by total career wins12 wins
TD Defense67 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved takedown defense rate (70%)Not recorded
Grappling60 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rateNot recorded
Chin83 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO-loss durability proxy from career record24 bouts
Striking40 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed striking volume and accuracyNot recorded
Cardio70 out of 100DERIVED PROXYLong-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win shareNot recorded
Aggression25 out of 100DERIVED PROXYActivity proxy from observed strike and takedown volumeNot recorded
Sub Threat20 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved submission rate (0 per 15 min)Not recorded
Str Defense53 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved striking defense rate (54%)Not recorded
Recovery42 out of 100DERIVED PROXYShare of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.13 losses
// CAREER_MOMENTUM · 05_

THE ARC SO FAR

Rolling momentum score (0-100) recomputed after every bout. Weighted blend of result, opponent context, and method-of-finish, designed to show the shape, not the destination.

// MOMENTUM_TIMELINE_
SCOREWINLOSS
0255075100APR 2005WAPR 2005LAPR 2005WAUG 2005WJAN 2006WMAY 2006WMAY 2006WSEP 2006WSEP 2006WDEC 2006SEP 2007WNOV 2007LDEC 2007LMAR 2008WJUL 2009LJUL 2009LSEP 2009LOCT 2009WJUL 2010LSEP 2010LJAN 2011LFEB 2011LAPR 2012WAUG 2013LSEP 2014LMAY 2018WJUL 2019LOCT 2019// SCORE

  1. Start, APR 2005, momentum score 45.
  2. Start, APR 2005, momentum score 52, DEC R3.
  3. Start, APR 2005, momentum score 45, SUB R3.
  4. Start, AUG 2005, momentum score 52, DEC R3.
  5. Start, JAN 2006, momentum score 61, KO/TKO R2.
  6. Start, MAY 2006, momentum score 68, DEC R2.
  7. Start, MAY 2006, momentum score 75, DEC R2.
  8. Start, SEP 2006, momentum score 85, SUB R2.
  9. Start, SEP 2006, momentum score 95, SUB R1.
  10. Start, DEC 2006, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R2.
  11. Start, SEP 2007, momentum score 100.
  12. Start, NOV 2007, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R2.
  13. Start, DEC 2007, momentum score 93, DEC R3.
  14. Start, MAR 2008, momentum score 86, SUB R2.
  15. Start, JUL 2009, momentum score 93, DEC R3.
  16. Start, JUL 2009, momentum score 86, SUB R3.
  17. Start, SEP 2009, momentum score 76, KO/TKO R1.
  18. Start, OCT 2009, momentum score 69, SUB R1.
  19. Start, JUL 2010, momentum score 79, SUB R1.
  20. Start, SEP 2010, momentum score 72, SUB R3.
  21. Start, JAN 2011, momentum score 65, DEC R3.
  22. Start, FEB 2011, momentum score 58, SUB R3.
  23. Start, APR 2012, momentum score 51, SUB R1.
  24. Start, AUG 2013, momentum score 60, KO/TKO R3.
  25. Start, SEP 2014, momentum score 53, DEC R3.
  26. Start, MAY 2018, momentum score 43, KO/TKO R1.
  27. Start, JUL 2019, momentum score 50, DEC R3.
  28. Start, OCT 2019, momentum score 43, SUB R2.

Peaked at 100 (W vs Freitas), bottomed at 43 (L vs Mousasi). Current reading: 43.

// KILL_SHOT_MATRIX · 06_

WHEN THE FINISHES COME

Cross-tab of fight outcome by method and round. Reads top-down for method, left-right for round. Cyan intensity scales with frequency.

// METHOD × ROUND_
26/27 fights mapped
METHOD ↓ / ROUND →R1R2R3R4R5FREQ
KO/TKO
2
8%
3
12%
1
4%
-
-
6
total
SUB
4
15%
3
12%
4
15%
-
-
11
total
DEC
-
2
8%
7
27%
-
-
9
total
// PRIMARY KILL ZONE
R1-R2 KO/TKO · 5 of 26 mapped
// LATE-FIGHT GAP
No R5 finishes either way
// DECISION RATE
33%, fights often go the distance
// FIGHT_HISTORY · 08_

BOUT LOG
27 FIGHTS

Detailed bout records for the indexed tenure. Sorted most recent first.

L
VS Vadim NemkovOct 12, 2019
SubmissionR2 · 3:56
Bellator 230 - Carvalho vs. Nemkov
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
W
VS Chidi NjokuaniJul 12, 2019
DecisionR3 · 5:00
Bellator 224 - Budd vs. Rubin
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
L
VS Gegard MousasiMay 25, 2018
KO/TKOR1 · 3:35
Bellator 200 - Carvalho vs. Mousasi
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
L
VS Jose Willian Lima da SilvaSep 13, 2014
DecisionR3 · 5:00
WCC - W-Combat 20
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Walisson Leite dos SantosAug 3, 2013
KO/TKOR3 · 0:00
NEC 10 - North Extreme Cagefighting 10
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Retirement)
L
VS Renan Carlos dos Santos SilvaApr 7, 2012
SubmissionR1 · 3:12
IMVT - Iron Man Vale Tudo 23
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Heel Hook)
L
VS Oberdan Vieira TenorioFeb 5, 2011
SubmissionR3 · 2:25
IMVT - Iron Man Vale Tudo 21
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
L
VS Alisson Deivid RodriguesJan 15, 2011
DecisionR3 · 5:00
UFF - Ultimate Finus Fighting 3
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Split)
L
VS John TeixeiraSep 4, 2010
SubmissionR3 · 3:47
IMVT - Iron Man Vale Tudo 20
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
W
VS Elielson AlmeidaJul 21, 2010
SubmissionR1 · 2:58
PF - Porto Fight 3
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Armbar)
L
VS Igor FernandesOct 3, 2009
SubmissionR1 · 3:19
MC - Minotauro Combat 1
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Anaconda Choke)
L
VS Iuri AlcantaraSep 10, 2009
KO/TKOR1 · 0:00
IMC - Iron Man Championship 3
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
// FAQ · 09_

CITATION-READY ANSWERS

Quick answers based on the public fighter profile and fight history shown on this page.

Middleweight. Professional record 12-11-1. Unranked at the time of indexing.

Research Rafael Carvalho

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// FORECAST_AVAILABLE_
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// LAST INDEX SYNC · 2026-10-28