// Roster Index›Lightweight›Dossier · Rafael Macedo
UFC FIGHTER PROFILE_
UFC · UNKNOWNLIGHTWEIGHT

Rafael
Macedo

NICKNAME"The Butcher"·BRAZIL
PROFESSIONAL RECORD
10-5-0
CURRENT FORM
1L STREAK
NEXT FIGHT
NO BOUT ANNOUNCED
Rafael Macedo
FIGHTER -
BRA🇧🇷
PROFILE PHOTO
PROFILE
PROFILE DATA! COLD
HEIGHT
5'7"
AGE
40
WEIGHT
Lightweight
PROFESSIONAL RECORD_
16 BOUTS
WIN
10
LOSS
5
DRAW
0
WIN RATE
67%
10/16 bouts
FINISH RATE
70%
of professional wins
LAST 5 FIGHTS1L STREAK · 3-2
WLWWL
STYLE SUMMARY_
DATA: COLD
FIGHTING STYLE
WELL ROUNDED

Well rounded fighter with no dominant single weapon — 40% of wins are by sub.

KEY STRENGTHS

Drags it to the mat and hunts the finish — submission threat opens up off transitions.

KEY RISKS

Volume strikers have outpointed across full fights — output drops after R2.

// PERFORMANCE_METRICS · 02_

STRIKE / GRAPPLE
VITALS

Observed profile rates compared with stored weight-class medians where coverage exists. Any fallback uses a labeled UFC reference average; no fallback is presented as a division median.

// SLPM▲ ABOVE
3.00
Strikes Landed/Min
Reference value 2.70
// STR. ACC▲ ABOVE
52%
Striking Accuracy
Reference value 45%
// SAPM▲ ABOVE
2.67
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Reference value 2.70
// STR. DEF▼ BELOW
53%
Striking Defense
Reference value 53%
// TD AVG▼ BELOW
1.50
Takedowns/15 min
Reference value 1.50
// TD ACC▼ BELOW
40%
Takedown Accuracy
Reference value 40%
// TD DEF▲ ABOVE
62%
Takedown Defense
Reference value 59%
// SUB AVG▼ BELOW
0.50
Submissions/15 min
Reference value 0.50
// QUALITY_OF_COMPETITION · 02B_

WHO THEY
ACTUALLY FOUGHT

A record says how often a fighter won, not against whom. These ratings weigh every result by the opponent's strength at the time, then compare this fighter with the 111 rated fighters on the UFC lightweight roster (anyone with a UFC bout in the last two years or one booked).

THIN RATED HISTORY
// RATING
#83
against the 111 rated on the UFC lightweight roster · Elo 1509
// STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
5th
percentile · average opponent rated 1501 at fight time (recent fights count most)
// RESULTS VS EXPECTATION
34th
percentile · fell short of what opponents' ratings predicted (-0.05 per fight)

7 rated fights · opponents rated in 47% of recorded fights · last rated fight AUG 15, 2020 · Few rated fights: read these as rough.

// CAREER_BREAKDOWN · 03_

WIN CONDITION MAP

Where the wins come from, and where the losses came from. Method splits by knockout, submission, and decision.

// WINS (10)
n = 10
KO/TKO · 3
SUB · 4
DEC · 3
3
KO/TKO
30%
4
SUB
40%
3
DEC
30%
// LOSSES (5)
n = 5
KO/TKO · 2
SUB · 1
DEC · 3
2
KO/TKO
40%
1
SUB
20%
3
DEC
60%
// PATH_TO_VICTORY_
70% FINISH
KO/TKOEARLY ROUNDS · 3 fights
30%
SUBANY ROUND · 4 fights
40%
DECFULL FIGHT · 3 fights
30%
Top win condition: ko/tko · early rounds.
// DNA_PROFILE · 04_

ATTRIBUTE FINGERPRINT

Evidence-backed 0-100 scores built only from observed profile stats and disclosed bout-history proxies. This is a fixed Blueprint scoring model, not a division percentile; missing axes remain unknown.

// DNA_PROFILE_
3 OBSERVED7 DERIVED0 UNKNOWN
// BENCHMARK
FIXED SCORE SCALE
// LINKED SAMPLE
16 BOUTS
// PROFILE UPDATED
JUL 16, 2026
// RECORDED SOURCE
ufcstats
Fighter attribute fingerprint10 of 10 attributes have evidence-backed scores on the Blueprint fixed scale. Unknown axes are not plotted and no score represents a division percentile.KO POWER43TD DEFENSE49GRAPPLING60CHIN72STRIKING51CARDIO68AGGRESSION25SUB THREAT25STR DEFENSE51RECOVERY100
// BANDS
90+ELITE
70-89STRONG
45-69AVERAGE
30-44BELOW
<30LOW
N/AUNKNOWN
Highest scored axis: Recovery. Lowest scored axis: Sub Threat.
// EVIDENCE REGISTER
10 SCORED · 0 OPEN
KO Power43
DERIVED PROXY

KO wins divided by total career wins

N=10 wins
TD Defense49
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed takedown defense rate (62%)

Grappling60
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rate

Chin72
DERIVED PROXY

KO-loss durability proxy from career record

N=15 bouts
Striking51
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed striking volume and accuracy

Cardio68
DERIVED PROXY

Long-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win share

Aggression25
DERIVED PROXY

Activity proxy from observed strike and takedown volume

Sub Threat25
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed submission rate (0.5 per 15 min)

Str Defense51
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed striking defense rate (53%)

Recovery100
DERIVED PROXY

Share of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.

N=5 losses
Fighter attribute fingerprint accessible data summary
AttributeScoreProvenanceEvidenceSample
KO Power43 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO wins divided by total career wins10 wins
TD Defense49 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved takedown defense rate (62%)Not recorded
Grappling60 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rateNot recorded
Chin72 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO-loss durability proxy from career record15 bouts
Striking51 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed striking volume and accuracyNot recorded
Cardio68 out of 100DERIVED PROXYLong-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win shareNot recorded
Aggression25 out of 100DERIVED PROXYActivity proxy from observed strike and takedown volumeNot recorded
Sub Threat25 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved submission rate (0.5 per 15 min)Not recorded
Str Defense51 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved striking defense rate (53%)Not recorded
Recovery100 out of 100DERIVED PROXYShare of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.5 losses
// CAREER_MOMENTUM · 05_

THE ARC SO FAR

Rolling momentum score (0-100) recomputed after every bout. Weighted blend of result, opponent context, and method-of-finish, designed to show the shape, not the destination.

// MOMENTUM_TIMELINE_
SCOREWINLOSS
0255075100SEP 2011WSEP 2011WOCT 2011WNOV 2011WJUL 2012WSEP 2012LOCT 2012WMAR 2014LAPR 2014WJAN 2015OCT 2015LFEB 2016WAUG 2016LNOV 2017WAPR 2018WOCT 2019LAUG 2020// SCORE

  1. Start, SEP 2011, momentum score 45.
  2. Start, SEP 2011, momentum score 55, SUB R1.
  3. Start, OCT 2011, momentum score 64, KO/TKO R2.
  4. Start, NOV 2011, momentum score 74, SUB R2.
  5. Start, JUL 2012, momentum score 83, KO/TKO R2.
  6. Start, SEP 2012, momentum score 93, KO/TKO R1.
  7. Start, OCT 2012, momentum score 84, KO/TKO R1.
  8. Start, MAR 2014, momentum score 93, SUB R2.
  9. Start, APR 2014, momentum score 86, DEC R3.
  10. Start, JAN 2015, momentum score 96, SUB R2.
  11. Start, OCT 2015, momentum score 96, DEC R3.
  12. Start, FEB 2016, momentum score 89, SUB R1.
  13. Start, AUG 2016, momentum score 96, DEC R3.
  14. Start, NOV 2017, momentum score 89, DEC R5.
  15. Start, APR 2018, momentum score 96, DEC R3.
  16. Start, OCT 2019, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  17. Start, AUG 2020, momentum score 93, KO/TKO R2.

Peaked at 100 (W vs Mousah), bottomed at 45 (Debut). Current reading: 93.

// KILL_SHOT_MATRIX · 06_

WHEN THE FINISHES COME

Cross-tab of fight outcome by method and round. Reads top-down for method, left-right for round. Cyan intensity scales with frequency.

// METHOD × ROUND_
16/16 fights mapped
METHOD ↓ / ROUND →R1R2R3R4R5FREQ
KO/TKO
2
13%
3
19%
-
-
-
5
total
SUB
2
13%
3
19%
-
-
-
5
total
DEC
-
-
5
31%
-
1
6%
6
total
// PRIMARY KILL ZONE
R1-R2 KO/TKO · 5 of 16 mapped
// LATE-FIGHT GAP
No R5 finishes either way
// DECISION RATE
38%, fights often go the distance
// FIGHT_HISTORY · 08_

BOUT LOG
16 FIGHTS

Detailed bout records for the indexed tenure. Sorted most recent first.

L
VS Tobias HarilaAug 15, 2020
KO/TKOR2 · 5:00
Brave CF 39 - Brave Combat Federation 39
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Retirement)
W
VS Kane MousahOct 12, 2019
DecisionR3 · 5:00
Bellator 230 - Carvalho vs. Nemkov
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Split)
W
VS Perry GoodwinApr 28, 2018
DecisionR3 · 5:00
CW 93 - Cage Warriors 93
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
L
VS Daguir ImavovNov 4, 2017
DecisionR5 · 5:00
CFC Malta 2 - Centurion Fight Championship 2
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Jerry KvarnstromAug 12, 2016
DecisionR3 · 5:00
Fight Promotion Showdown Goes Ruissalo - Turku
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
L
VS Rafael DomingosFeb 13, 2016
SubmissionR1 · 1:08
Cage - Cage 34
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Guillotine Choke)
D
VS Joni SalovaaraOct 23, 2015
DecisionR3 · 5:00
Cage - Cage 32
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
No Decision - Overturned by FMMAF
W
VS Hyram RodriguezJan 17, 2015
SubmissionR2 · 3:55
Fightor 1 - Lister vs. Knaap
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Punches)
L
VS Frantz SlioaApr 26, 2014
DecisionR3 · 5:00
The Zone FC 13 - Tough Luck
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Oscar NaveMar 8, 2014
SubmissionR2 · 3:06
CC - Cage Challenge 11
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Heel Hook)
L
VS John TeixeiraOct 20, 2012
KO/TKOR1 · 5:00
Shooto Brazil 35 - Marmota vs. Gladiador
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Doctor Stoppage)
W
VS Kelvyn Martins SilvaSep 30, 2012
KO/TKOR1 · 0:00
CF MMA - Candeias Fight 2
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
// FAQ · 09_

CITATION-READY ANSWERS

Quick answers based on the public fighter profile and fight history shown on this page.

Lightweight. Professional record 10-5 (1 NC). Unranked at the time of indexing.

Research Rafael Macedo

Compare this fighter head to head, check the next UFC card, read current matchup analysis, or verify settled Blueprint MMA forecasts.

Compare Rafael MacedoUpcoming UFC scheduleFight analysis archivePrediction track record
// FORECAST_AVAILABLE_
Want the next-fight forecast?
The pick is free.

Every published fight shows its winner and win probability free. The full debate, method and round open with Sharp or an Event Pass.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS ALL FIGHTERS
BLUEPRINT/MMA · DOSSIER ENGINE v3.2
// LAST INDEX SYNC · 2026-10-28