// Roster Index›Welterweight›Dossier · Rory MacDonald
UFC FIGHTER PROFILE_
UFC · UNKNOWNSTOCK 0WELTERWEIGHT

Rory
MacDonald

NICKNAME"Red King"·CANADA
PROFESSIONAL RECORD
23-10-1
CURRENT FORM
2L STREAK
CURRENT GYM
Kill Cliff FC
NEXT FIGHT
NO BOUT ANNOUNCED
Rory MacDonald
FIGHTER -
CAN🇨🇦
PROFILE PHOTO
PROFILE
PROFILE DATA! COLD
HEIGHT
6'0"
REACH
6'4"
AGE
37
STANCE
ORTHODOX
WEIGHT
Welterweight
PROFESSIONAL RECORD_
34 BOUTS
WIN
23
LOSS
10
DRAW
1
WIN RATE
68%
23/34 bouts
FINISH RATE
70%
of professional wins
LAST 5 FIGHTS2L STREAK · 1-4
LLWLL
Form trend 0 over the last 90 days.
STYLE SUMMARY_
DATA: COLD
FIGHTING STYLE
WELL ROUNDED

Well rounded fighter built around defensive grappling — 39% of wins are by sub.

KEY STRENGTHS

Drags it to the mat and hunts the finish — submission threat opens up off transitions.

KEY RISKS

Volume strikers have outpointed across full fights — output drops after R2.

// PERFORMANCE_METRICS · 02_

STRIKE / GRAPPLE
VITALS

Observed profile rates compared with stored weight-class medians where coverage exists. Any fallback uses a labeled UFC reference average; no fallback is presented as a division median.

// SLPM▲ ABOVE
3.75
Strikes Landed/Min
Reference value 2.65
// STR. ACC▼ BELOW
42%
Striking Accuracy
Reference value 47%
// SAPM▼ BELOW
2.80
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Reference value 2.74
// STR. DEF▲ ABOVE
62%
Striking Defense
Reference value 53%
// TD AVG▲ ABOVE
1.77
Takedowns/15 min
Reference value 1.50
// TD ACC▲ ABOVE
47%
Takedown Accuracy
Reference value 40%
// TD DEF▲ ABOVE
88%
Takedown Defense
Reference value 59%
// SUB AVG▼ BELOW
0.40
Submissions/15 min
Reference value 0.50
// QUALITY_OF_COMPETITION · 02B_

WHO THEY
ACTUALLY FOUGHT

A record says how often a fighter won, not against whom. These ratings weigh every result by the opponent's strength at the time, then compare this fighter with the 99 rated fighters on the UFC welterweight roster (anyone with a UFC bout in the last two years or one booked).

// RATING
#29
against the 99 rated on the UFC welterweight roster · Elo 1601
// STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
76th
percentile · average opponent rated 1593 at fight time (recent fights count most)
// RESULTS VS EXPECTATION
11th
percentile · fell short of what opponents' ratings predicted (-0.20 per fight)

28 rated fights · opponents rated in 82% of recorded fights · last rated fight AUG 13, 2022

// CAREER_BREAKDOWN · 03_

WIN CONDITION MAP

Where the wins come from, and where the losses came from. Method splits by knockout, submission, and decision.

// WINS (23)
n = 23
KO/TKO · 7
SUB · 9
DEC · 7
7
KO/TKO
30%
9
SUB
39%
7
DEC
30%
// LOSSES (10)
n = 10
KO/TKO · 4
DEC · 6
4
KO/TKO
40%
0
SUB
0%
6
DEC
60%
// PATH_TO_VICTORY_
70% FINISH
KO/TKOEARLY ROUNDS · 7 fights
30%
SUBANY ROUND · 9 fights
39%
DECFULL FIGHT · 7 fights
30%
Top win condition: ko/tko · early rounds.
// DNA_PROFILE · 04_

ATTRIBUTE FINGERPRINT

Evidence-backed 0-100 scores built only from observed profile stats and disclosed bout-history proxies. This is a fixed Blueprint scoring model, not a division percentile; missing axes remain unknown.

// DNA_PROFILE_
3 OBSERVED7 DERIVED0 UNKNOWN
// BENCHMARK
FIXED SCORE SCALE
// LINKED SAMPLE
34 BOUTS
// PROFILE UPDATED
OCT 3, 2026
// RECORDED SOURCE
ufcstats
Fighter attribute fingerprint10 of 10 attributes have evidence-backed scores on the Blueprint fixed scale. Unknown axes are not plotted and no score represents a division percentile.KO POWER43TD DEFENSE100GRAPPLING60CHIN74STRIKING45CARDIO81AGGRESSION39SUB THREAT20STR DEFENSE71RECOVERY56
// BANDS
90+ELITE
70-89STRONG
45-69AVERAGE
30-44BELOW
<30LOW
N/AUNKNOWN
Highest scored axis: TD Defense. Lowest scored axis: Sub Threat.
// EVIDENCE REGISTER
10 SCORED · 0 OPEN
KO Power43
DERIVED PROXY

KO wins divided by total career wins

N=23 wins
TD Defense100
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed takedown defense rate (88%)

Grappling60
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rate

Chin74
DERIVED PROXY

KO-loss durability proxy from career record

N=34 bouts
Striking45
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed striking volume and accuracy

Cardio81
DERIVED PROXY

Long-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win share

Aggression39
DERIVED PROXY

Activity proxy from observed strike and takedown volume

Sub Threat20
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed submission rate (0.4 per 15 min)

Str Defense71
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed striking defense rate (62%)

Recovery56
DERIVED PROXY

Share of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.

N=10 losses
Fighter attribute fingerprint accessible data summary
AttributeScoreProvenanceEvidenceSample
KO Power43 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO wins divided by total career wins23 wins
TD Defense100 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved takedown defense rate (88%)Not recorded
Grappling60 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rateNot recorded
Chin74 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO-loss durability proxy from career record34 bouts
Striking45 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed striking volume and accuracyNot recorded
Cardio81 out of 100DERIVED PROXYLong-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win shareNot recorded
Aggression39 out of 100DERIVED PROXYActivity proxy from observed strike and takedown volumeNot recorded
Sub Threat20 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved submission rate (0.4 per 15 min)Not recorded
Str Defense71 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved striking defense rate (62%)Not recorded
Recovery56 out of 100DERIVED PROXYShare of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.10 losses
// CAREER_MOMENTUM · 05_

THE ARC SO FAR

Rolling momentum score (0-100) recomputed after every bout. Weighted blend of result, opponent context, and method-of-finish, designed to show the shape, not the destination.

// MOMENTUM_TIMELINE_
SCOREWINLOSS
0255075100OCT 2005WOCT 2005WFEB 2006WJUN 2006WOCT 2006WNOV 2006WDEC 2007WNOV 2008WMAY 2009WSEP 2009WJAN 2010LJUN 2010WAPR 2011WAUG 2011WAPR 2012WDEC 2012WJUL 2013LNOV 2013WFEB 2014WJUN 2014WOCT 2014LJUL 2015LJUN 2016WMAY 2017WJAN 2018LSEP 2018APR 2019WJUN 2019LOCT 2019WAPR 2021LJUN 2021LAUG 2021WMAY 2022LJUL 2022LAUG 2022// SCORE

  1. Start, OCT 2005, momentum score 45.
  2. Start, OCT 2005, momentum score 55, SUB R1.
  3. Start, FEB 2006, momentum score 65, SUB R1.
  4. Start, JUN 2006, momentum score 74, SUB R1.
  5. Start, OCT 2006, momentum score 84, SUB R1.
  6. Start, NOV 2006, momentum score 93, KO/TKO R2.
  7. Start, DEC 2007, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R3.
  8. Start, NOV 2008, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R2.
  9. Start, MAY 2009, momentum score 100, SUB R1.
  10. Start, SEP 2009, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R2.
  11. Start, JAN 2010, momentum score 100, SUB R1.
  12. Start, JUN 2010, momentum score 93, KO/TKO R3.
  13. Start, APR 2011, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  14. Start, AUG 2011, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R1.
  15. Start, APR 2012, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R2.
  16. Start, DEC 2012, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  17. Start, JUL 2013, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  18. Start, NOV 2013, momentum score 93, DEC R3.
  19. Start, FEB 2014, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  20. Start, JUN 2014, momentum score 100, DEC R3.
  21. Start, OCT 2014, momentum score 100, KO/TKO R3.
  22. Start, JUL 2015, momentum score 93, KO/TKO R5.
  23. Start, JUN 2016, momentum score 86, DEC R5.
  24. Start, MAY 2017, momentum score 96, SUB R2.
  25. Start, JAN 2018, momentum score 100, DEC R5.
  26. Start, SEP 2018, momentum score 93, KO/TKO R2.
  27. Start, APR 2019, momentum score 93.
  28. Start, JUN 2019, momentum score 100, DEC R5.
  29. Start, OCT 2019, momentum score 93, DEC R5.
  30. Start, APR 2021, momentum score 100, SUB R1.
  31. Start, JUN 2021, momentum score 93, DEC R3.
  32. Start, AUG 2021, momentum score 86, DEC R3.
  33. Start, MAY 2022, momentum score 96, SUB R1.
  34. Start, JUL 2022, momentum score 89, DEC R3.
  35. Start, AUG 2022, momentum score 79, KO/TKO R1.

Peaked at 100 (W vs Johnson), bottomed at 45 (Debut). Current reading: 79.

// KILL_SHOT_MATRIX · 06_

WHEN THE FINISHES COME

Cross-tab of fight outcome by method and round. Reads top-down for method, left-right for round. Cyan intensity scales with frequency.

// METHOD × ROUND_
33/34 fights mapped
METHOD ↓ / ROUND →R1R2R3R4R5FREQ
KO/TKO
2
6%
5
15%
3
9%
-
1
3%
11
total
SUB
8
24%
1
3%
-
-
-
9
total
DEC
-
-
9
27%
-
4
12%
13
total
// PRIMARY KILL ZONE
R1-R2 KO/TKO · 7 of 33 mapped
// LATE-FIGHT GAP
R5 finishes on record
// DECISION RATE
38%, fights often go the distance
GYM & TRAINING PARTNERS_

WHERE THE TRAINING HAPPENS

Camp affiliation matters for stylistic predictions. Who you spend 200 rounds a week with shapes how you fight on Saturday.

// CURRENT_GYM_
Kill Cliff FC
VIEW FIGHTER DIRECTORY →
// STYLE_INFLUENCE_
CAGE DEFENSE

Style tags inferred from per-fight rate stats: striking-first, wrestling-heavy, sub grappling, cage defense.

// RESOLVED_TRAINING_PARTNERS

No linked training partners are available for this gym yet.

// FIGHT_HISTORY · 08_

BOUT LOG
34 FIGHTS

Detailed bout records for the indexed tenure. Sorted most recent first.

L
VS Dilano TaylorAug 13, 2022
KO/TKOR1 · 3:59
Professional Fighters League - PFL 8: 2022 Playoffs
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
L
VS Sadibou SyJul 1, 2022
DecisionR3 · 5:00
Professional Fighters League - PFL 6: 2022 Regular Season
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Brett CooperMay 6, 2022
SubmissionR1 · 2:23
Professional Fighters League - PFL 3: 2022 Regular Season
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
L
VS Ray Cooper IIIAug 13, 2021
DecisionR3 · 5:00
Professional Fighters League - PFL 7: 2021 Playoffs
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
L
VS Gleison TibauJun 17, 2021
DecisionR3 · 5:00
Professional Fighters League - PFL 5: 2021 Regular Season
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Split)
W
VS Curtis MillenderApr 29, 2021
SubmissionR1 · 3:38
Professional Fighters League - PFL 2: 2021 Regular Season
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
L
VS Douglas LimaOct 26, 2019
DecisionR5 · 5:00
Bellator 232 - MacDonald vs. Lima 2
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Neiman GracieJun 14, 2019
DecisionR5 · 5:00
Bellator 222 - MacDonald vs. Gracie
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
D
VS Jon FitchApr 27, 2019
DrawR5 · 5:00
Bellator 220 - MacDonald vs. Fitch
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Draw (Majority)
L
VS Gegard MousasiSep 29, 2018
KO/TKOR2 · 3:23
Bellator 206 - Mousasi vs. MacDonald
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Elbows and Punches)
W
VS Douglas LimaJan 20, 2018
DecisionR5 · 5:00
Bellator 192 - Jackson vs. Sonnen
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Decision (Unanimous)
W
VS Paul DaleyMay 19, 2017
SubmissionR2 · 1:45
Bellator 179 - Daley vs. MacDonald
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
// FAQ · 09_

CITATION-READY ANSWERS

Quick answers based on the public fighter profile and fight history shown on this page.

Welterweight. Professional record 23-10-1. Unranked at the time of indexing.

Research Rory MacDonald

Compare this fighter head to head, check the next UFC card, read current matchup analysis, or verify settled Blueprint MMA forecasts.

Compare Rory MacDonaldUpcoming UFC scheduleFight analysis archivePrediction track record
// FORECAST_AVAILABLE_
Want the next-fight forecast?
The pick is free.

Every published fight shows its winner and win probability free. The full debate, method and round open with Sharp or an Event Pass.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS ALL FIGHTERS
BLUEPRINT/MMA · DOSSIER ENGINE v3.2
// LAST INDEX SYNC · 2026-10-28