// Roster Index›Light Heavyweight›Dossier · Yair Moguel
UFC FIGHTER PROFILE_
UFC · UNKNOWNLIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT

Yair
Moguel

NICKNAME"Toek"·MEXICO
PROFESSIONAL RECORD
3-5-0
CURRENT FORM
5L STREAK
NEXT FIGHT
NO BOUT ANNOUNCED
Yair Moguel
FIGHTER -
MEX🇲🇽
PROFILE PHOTO
PROFILE
PROFILE DATA! COLD
HEIGHT
5'11"
WEIGHT
Light Heavyweight
PROFESSIONAL RECORD_
8 BOUTS
WIN
3
LOSS
5
DRAW
0
WIN RATE
38%
3/8 bouts
FINISH RATE
100%
of professional wins
LAST 5 FIGHTS5L STREAK · 0-5
LLLLL
STYLE SUMMARY_
DATA: COLD
FIGHTING STYLE
WELL ROUNDED

Well rounded fighter with elite knockout power — 67% of wins are by ko/tko.

KEY STRENGTHS

Closes distance and trades — most wins come from heavy hands inside the first two rounds.

KEY RISKS

Top-position grapplers who can chain transitions force submissions when scrambles open up.

// PERFORMANCE_METRICS · 02_

STRIKE / GRAPPLE
VITALS

Observed profile rates compared with stored weight-class medians where coverage exists. Any fallback uses a labeled UFC reference average; no fallback is presented as a division median.

// SLPM▼ BELOW
2.65
Strikes Landed/Min
Reference value 2.75
// STR. ACC▲ ABOVE
49%
Striking Accuracy
Reference value 49%
// SAPM▼ BELOW
2.81
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Reference value 2.75
// STR. DEF▼ BELOW
52%
Striking Defense
Reference value 53%
// TD AVG▼ BELOW
1.50
Takedowns/15 min
Reference value 1.50
// TD ACC▼ BELOW
40%
Takedown Accuracy
Reference value 40%
// TD DEF▼ BELOW
59%
Takedown Defense
Reference value 59%
// SUB AVG▼ BELOW
0.50
Submissions/15 min
Reference value 0.50
// QUALITY_OF_COMPETITION · 02B_

WHO THEY
ACTUALLY FOUGHT

A record says how often a fighter won, not against whom. These ratings weigh every result by the opponent's strength at the time, then compare this fighter with the 56 rated fighters on the UFC light heavyweight roster (anyone with a UFC bout in the last two years or one booked).

// RATING
#52
against the 56 rated on the UFC light heavyweight roster · Elo 1466
// STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
21st
percentile · average opponent rated 1508 at fight time (recent fights count most)
// RESULTS VS EXPECTATION
2nd
percentile · fell short of what opponents' ratings predicted (-0.30 per fight)

8 rated fights · opponents rated in 100% of recorded fights · last rated fight MAY 30, 2015

// CAREER_BREAKDOWN · 03_

WIN CONDITION MAP

Where the wins come from, and where the losses came from. Method splits by knockout, submission, and decision.

// WINS (3)
n = 3
KO/TKO · 2
SUB · 1
2
KO/TKO
67%
1
SUB
33%
0
DEC
0%
// LOSSES (5)
n = 5
KO/TKO · 1
SUB · 4
1
KO/TKO
20%
4
SUB
80%
0
DEC
0%
// PATH_TO_VICTORY_
100% FINISH
KO/TKOEARLY ROUNDS · 2 fights
67%
SUBANY ROUND · 1 fights
33%
Top win condition: ko/tko · early rounds.
// DNA_PROFILE · 04_

ATTRIBUTE FINGERPRINT

Evidence-backed 0-100 scores built only from observed profile stats and disclosed bout-history proxies. This is a fixed Blueprint scoring model, not a division percentile; missing axes remain unknown.

// DNA_PROFILE_
3 OBSERVED7 DERIVED0 UNKNOWN
// BENCHMARK
FIXED SCORE SCALE
// LINKED SAMPLE
8 BOUTS
// PROFILE UPDATED
JUL 22, 2026
// RECORDED SOURCE
ufcstats
Fighter attribute fingerprint10 of 10 attributes have evidence-backed scores on the Blueprint fixed scale. Unknown axes are not plotted and no score represents a division percentile.KO POWER95TD DEFENSE42GRAPPLING40CHIN73STRIKING43CARDIO57AGGRESSION25SUB THREAT25STR DEFENSE49RECOVERY0
// BANDS
90+ELITE
70-89STRONG
45-69AVERAGE
30-44BELOW
<30LOW
N/AUNKNOWN
Highest scored axis: KO Power. Lowest scored axis: Recovery.
// EVIDENCE REGISTER
10 SCORED · 0 OPEN
KO Power95
DERIVED PROXY

KO wins divided by total career wins

N=3 wins
TD Defense42
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed takedown defense rate (59%)

Grappling40
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rate

Chin73
DERIVED PROXY

KO-loss durability proxy from career record

N=8 bouts
Striking43
DERIVED PROXY

Composite of observed striking volume and accuracy

Cardio57
DERIVED PROXY

Long-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win share

Aggression25
DERIVED PROXY

Activity proxy from observed strike and takedown volume

Sub Threat25
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed submission rate (0.5 per 15 min)

Str Defense49
OBSERVED INPUT

Observed striking defense rate (52%)

Recovery0
DERIVED PROXY

Share of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.

N=5 losses
Fighter attribute fingerprint accessible data summary
AttributeScoreProvenanceEvidenceSample
KO Power95 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO wins divided by total career wins3 wins
TD Defense42 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved takedown defense rate (59%)Not recorded
Grappling40 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed takedown volume, accuracy, and submission rateNot recorded
Chin73 out of 100DERIVED PROXYKO-loss durability proxy from career record8 bouts
Striking43 out of 100DERIVED PROXYComposite of observed striking volume and accuracyNot recorded
Cardio57 out of 100DERIVED PROXYLong-fight exposure proxy from bout duration and decision-win shareNot recorded
Aggression25 out of 100DERIVED PROXYActivity proxy from observed strike and takedown volumeNot recorded
Sub Threat25 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved submission rate (0.5 per 15 min)Not recorded
Str Defense49 out of 100OBSERVED INPUTObserved striking defense rate (52%)Not recorded
Recovery0 out of 100DERIVED PROXYShare of recorded losses followed by a win in the next recorded bout.5 losses
// CAREER_MOMENTUM · 05_

THE ARC SO FAR

Rolling momentum score (0-100) recomputed after every bout. Weighted blend of result, opponent context, and method-of-finish, designed to show the shape, not the destination.

// MOMENTUM_TIMELINE_
SCOREWINLOSS
0255075100SEP 2009WSEP 2009WJUL 2010WDEC 2010LMAR 2011LJUL 2011LMAY 2012LFEB 2013LMAY 2015// SCORE

  1. Start, SEP 2009, momentum score 45.
  2. Start, SEP 2009, momentum score 54, KO/TKO R2.
  3. Start, JUL 2010, momentum score 62, KO/TKO R5.
  4. Start, DEC 2010, momentum score 72, SUB R1.
  5. Start, MAR 2011, momentum score 65, SUB R1.
  6. Start, JUL 2011, momentum score 58, SUB R3.
  7. Start, MAY 2012, momentum score 51, KO/TKO R3.
  8. Start, FEB 2013, momentum score 44, SUB R1.
  9. Start, MAY 2015, momentum score 37, SUB R1.

Peaked at 72 (W vs Suarez), bottomed at 37 (L vs Pina). Current reading: 37.

// KILL_SHOT_MATRIX · 06_

WHEN THE FINISHES COME

Cross-tab of fight outcome by method and round. Reads top-down for method, left-right for round. Cyan intensity scales with frequency.

// METHOD × ROUND_
8/8 fights mapped
METHOD ↓ / ROUND →R1R2R3R4R5FREQ
KO/TKO
-
1
13%
1
13%
-
1
13%
3
total
SUB
4
50%
-
1
13%
-
-
5
total
DEC
-
-
-
-
-
0
total
// PRIMARY KILL ZONE
R1-R2 KO/TKO · 1 of 8 mapped
// LATE-FIGHT GAP
R5 finishes on record
// DECISION RATE
0%, fights rarely go the distance
// FIGHT_HISTORY · 08_

BOUT LOG
8 FIGHTS

Detailed bout records for the indexed tenure. Sorted most recent first.

L
VS Raymond PinaMay 30, 2015
SubmissionR1 · 4:27
WFF - World Fighting Federation 21
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
L
VS Brennan WardFeb 28, 2013
SubmissionR1 · 0:57
Bellator MMA - Bellator 91
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
L
VS Christopher PlacenciaMay 19, 2012
KO/TKOR3 · 2:13
CG - Cage Gladiator 6
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
L
VS Kelvin GastelumJul 16, 2011
SubmissionR3 · 2:26
LAW 1 - Heatwave
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Kimura)
L
VS Alfredo MoralesMar 25, 2011
SubmissionR1 · 2:14
XFL - Eliminator #2 2011
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission
W
VS Roberto SuarezDec 11, 2010
SubmissionR1 · 0:52
LAF 1 - Border Wars
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
Submission (Armbar)
W
VS David RomeroJul 31, 2010
KO/TKOR5 · 0:11
WCF 4 - Warrior Championship Fighting 4
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
KO (Punches)
W
VS Ruben AbarcaSep 26, 2009
KO/TKOR2 · 0:24
WCF 2 - Warrior Championship Fighting 2
SECONDARY DETAILS
METHOD
DETAIL
TKO (Punches)
// FAQ · 09_

CITATION-READY ANSWERS

Quick answers based on the public fighter profile and fight history shown on this page.

Light Heavyweight. Professional record 3-5. Unranked at the time of indexing.

Research Yair Moguel

Compare this fighter head to head, check the next UFC card, read current matchup analysis, or verify settled Blueprint MMA forecasts.

Compare Yair MoguelUpcoming UFC scheduleFight analysis archivePrediction track record
// FORECAST_AVAILABLE_
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// LAST INDEX SYNC · 2026-10-28