Andre Fili vs Vinicius Oliveira, UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi prediction and deep analysis
Andre Fili/Vinicius Oliveira
FeatherweightWinner Committee
Thirty-three specialists answer distinct winner-only questions. Eligible evidence is renormalized only inside its original lane.
Fight-State Projection
These are distributions of eligible committee signal mass—not invented percentages of fight time.
Conditional Method Model
Each row is conditional on that fighter already winning; every fighter row sums to 100%.
Conditional Round Model
Round-event mass is derived from survival-conditioned hazards. The final scheduled round is absorbing.
Probability Reconciliation
The exact-outcome grid preserves both winner marginals and sums to 100%. Decision branches have no round.
Output Selection
The winner and every outcome label come from one immutable reconciled distribution. Oversight may widen uncertainty, never move the point forecast.
Key Takeaways
- The War Room Committee picks Vinicius Oliveira (62% win probability).
- Vinicius Oliveira path. "Power penetration to finish": Close distance with switch-stance entries
- Andre Fili path. "Range-control to decision": Establish jab behind reach advantage
- Risk: Short-notice collapse
- Risk: Weight-class adjustment
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Andre Fili vs Vinicius Oliveira?
Vinicius Oliveira won. Blueprint MMA's pre-fight pick was Vinicius Oliveira.
Who wins Andre Fili vs Vinicius Oliveira?
Blueprint MMA's War Room Committee picks Vinicius Oliveira with a 62% win probability.
What could change the outcome of Andre Fili vs Vinicius Oliveira?
Short-notice collapse: Fili's six-day camp severely compromises the cardio base his pressure game demands; if his output drops, Oliveira's power window widens. Weight-class adjustment: Oliveira's move up from Bantamweight carries rehydrated-size uncertainty that could blunt his finishing power or improve his durability. Control-time void: Fili's collapsed clinch output removes his safety valve; without mat returns or cage stalling, he becomes a stationary target.
How does Blueprint MMA make this prediction?
Blueprint MMA validates and freezes the fight data, then runs 68 Kimi K2.6 agent executions: 33 Winner, 10 Method, 20 Timing, and 5 non-voting Oversight. Kimi K2.6 is the only inference model; LangGraph only orchestrates stage order and state. Winner agents fix the point probability first, Method and Timing agents fill conditional branches without reopening it, and Oversight audits without voting. The public probability is held to a sane 5-95% range and logged before release. Published winner probabilities are AI-only. Market prices may be shown for benchmarking, CLV, and workflow context, but they do not select, rank, or alter the published forecast. If the direct pipeline cannot return a valid read, the forecast is held. Methodology is documented at https://blueprintmma.com/manifesto and accuracy is tracked publicly at https://blueprintmma.com/track-record.