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01 / Official verdict

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

Anthony Hernandez / Gregory Rodrigues

Official winner

Anthony Hernandez

Conditional outcome if the pick wins: Submission · Round 5

Win probability

54.2%

Slight lean

30-second blueprint

The whole call at a glance

Winner · strength

Anthony Hernandez · 54.2%

Slight lean

Evidence coverage

7/7 supported

All lenses supported

Lens agreement

5 pick · 2 opponent

0 neutral · 0 abstain

Source cutoff

Aug 22, 2026, 4:39 AM UTC

No unresolved structured conflicts

Leading drivers

  1. 01Statistical · 26.5% effective share
    A's profile dominates the differentials: +1.47 significant strikes per minute (4.57 landed, 3.10 absorbed) against B's +0.75 (5.53 landed, 4.78 absorbed), 61% accuracy vs 52%, and a grappling suite of 5.88 takedowns per 15 at 48% with 1.63 submissions per 15 versus B's 1.90 takedowns at 16% and 0.38 submissions. B counters with 75% takedown defense, a 78.9% finish rate, and a shorter 439-second average fight time reflecting early-ending power. Over a five-round structure the composite statistical edge sits with A.
  2. 02Stylistic · 13.2% effective share
    Fighter A is a chain-wrestling pressure grappler: 5.88 takedowns per 15 minutes at 48% accuracy, 76.25 seconds of control per takedown, and 1.63 submission attempts per 15 behind an 80% finish rate. Fighter B is a high-output power striker (5.53 significant strikes landed per minute) whose wrestling is defensive only (16% takedown accuracy, 0.38 submission attempts per 15) behind a 75% takedown defense. The style question is whether that defense withstands sustained chain attempts over 25 minutes; B also absorbs 4.78 significant strikes per minute, so extended exchanges are not clean wins for him either.
  3. 03Trajectory · 14.6% effective share
    A is 15-3 with nine submission wins; before the February 2026 KO/TKO loss to Strickland he had won six straight, including a decision over Allen, a round-5 TKO of Pereira, and a round-4 submission of Dolidze. B is 19-6 with twelve KO/TKO wins and rides a three-fight streak (first-round stoppages of Ferreira and Hermansson, decision over Kopylov) after a round-4 KO loss to Cannonier; all four of his stoppage defeats came by strikes, flagging durability under sustained pressure. Internal ratings are close (A 1611 / B 1654 elo) but A carries the stronger schedule (1607 vs 1571) and the deeper proven five-round form.

Upset route · Gregory Rodrigues

  1. Primary route: Early knockout: keep the bout standing and land finishing power in the first two rounds, consistent with his twelve career KO/TKO wins.
  2. Secondary route: Sprawl-and-volume decision: defend takedowns at his 75% rate and out-land A over five rounds, replicating the Kopylov performance.
  3. Emergency route: Counter the level change: time knees and uppercuts on A's entries and stop him the way Strickland did in round 3.

02 / Matchup analysis

Seven evidence lenses

Lens 01 · 13.2% effective share

Stylistic

Configured weight: 20%

Supported

Fighter A is a chain-wrestling pressure grappler: 5.88 takedowns per 15 minutes at 48% accuracy, 76.25 seconds of control per takedown, and 1.63 submission attempts per 15 behind an 80% finish rate. Fighter B is a high-output power striker (5.53 significant strikes landed per minute) whose wrestling is defensive only (16% takedown accuracy, 0.38 submission attempts per 15) behind a 75% takedown defense. The style question is whether that defense withstands sustained chain attempts over 25 minutes; B also absorbs 4.78 significant strikes per minute, so extended exchanges are not clean wins for him either.

Uncertainty: B's 75% takedown defense has not recently faced attempt volume comparable to A's documented 29- and 11-attempt performances, so his true grappling resistance here is unverified.

Lens 02 · 26.5% effective share

Physical

Configured weight: 20%

Supported

B owns a 3.2-inch height edge (75.2 vs 72 inches) but reach is identical at 75.2 inches, both are orthodox, and both are listed at 84 kg, so no stance or reach leverage exists and B's taller frame mainly aids clinch posture and knees. A is roughly two years younger (born 1994 vs 1992), a marginal durability and recovery plus across five rounds. Net physical profile is near even, with A's equal reach neutralizing B's height.

Uncertainty: Listed weights are pre-weigh-in and identical at 84 kg; actual fight-night size, rehydration, and cut difficulty are unmeasured.

Lens 03 · 9.9% effective share

Film

Configured weight: 15%

Supported

A's documented tape shows escalating wrestling dominance: 10 of 29 takedowns with 942 seconds of control vs Pereira, 9 of 11 vs Dolidze, and 4 takedowns with 622 seconds of control vs Allen; the lone recent failure came vs Strickland, where A went 0-for-1 on takedowns, was out-landed, hurt by a knee to the body, and stopped in round 3. B's tape shows fight-changing power (two knockdowns vs Cannonier, first-round stoppage of Hermansson) but also a round-4 stoppage loss after early dominance vs Cannonier, stuffed takedowns and a conceded judo throw vs Kopylov, and a cut absorbed vs Hermansson. A's pressure grappling translated against every recent opponent except an elite high-volume striker; B is a brawler rather than a mover, which suits A's entries.

Uncertainty: Film bindings are secondary-tier play-by-play extracts without full-bout video verification, and B has no documented recent bout against a comparable chain wrestler.

Lens 04 · 26.5% effective share

Statistical

Configured weight: 20%

Supported

A's profile dominates the differentials: +1.47 significant strikes per minute (4.57 landed, 3.10 absorbed) against B's +0.75 (5.53 landed, 4.78 absorbed), 61% accuracy vs 52%, and a grappling suite of 5.88 takedowns per 15 at 48% with 1.63 submissions per 15 versus B's 1.90 takedowns at 16% and 0.38 submissions. B counters with 75% takedown defense, a 78.9% finish rate, and a shorter 439-second average fight time reflecting early-ending power. Over a five-round structure the composite statistical edge sits with A.

Uncertainty: Dossier statistics are career aggregates captured 71-77 days before the event and are not isolated by opponent archetype.

Lens 05 · 14.6% effective share

Trajectory

Configured weight: 11%

Supported

A is 15-3 with nine submission wins; before the February 2026 KO/TKO loss to Strickland he had won six straight, including a decision over Allen, a round-5 TKO of Pereira, and a round-4 submission of Dolidze. B is 19-6 with twelve KO/TKO wins and rides a three-fight streak (first-round stoppages of Ferreira and Hermansson, decision over Kopylov) after a round-4 KO loss to Cannonier; all four of his stoppage defeats came by strikes, flagging durability under sustained pressure. Internal ratings are close (A 1611 / B 1654 elo) but A carries the stronger schedule (1607 vs 1571) and the deeper proven five-round form.

Uncertainty: A's current durability rests on one post-stoppage data point, and B's streak came against lower-rated opposition than A's recent slate.

Lens 06 · 4.6% effective share

Situational

Configured weight: 7%

Supported

Five-round middleweight main event under unified rules in Sacramento. A owns three recorded five-round bouts versus B's one, and that single B exposure ended in a round-4 stoppage loss; UFC experience is comparable (18 vs 21 bouts) and both last competed within six months (Feb 21 and Mar 7, 2026), so neither holds an activity edge. The 25-minute structure structurally rewards A's pace-and-grappling attrition over B's early-power profile.

Uncertainty: Weigh-in is not completed or verified, and venue travel or acclimation details are absent for both fighters.

Lens 07 · 4.6% effective share

Preparation

Configured weight: 7%

Supported

A is listed with Team Fluffy per the promotion's athlete page, but that value carries a retained conflict against MMA Gold Fight Team and Xtreme Couture records, and the head-coach binding (Dennis Davis) is 190 days old and unclassified. B is listed at Kill Cliff FC per the promotion's page with no recorded conflict, an established camp with stable attribution. Preparation evidence is thin for both, with a small certainty edge to B.

Uncertainty: No camp-interruption, injury, sparring, or weight-cut reporting exists for either fighter; preparation is inferred from team identity alone.

03 / Fight paths

How each fighter wins

Paths to victory

Anthony Hernandez

Primary route

Chain-wrestling attrition: pressure B to the fence, chain takedowns into top control, and finish by submission or accumulated ground strikes in rounds 3-5.

Access:
A gains entries behind his 4.57-per-minute striking volume, converts near his 48% takedown accuracy, and banks 76-plus seconds of control per takedown as documented vs Pereira and Dolidze.
Denied if:
B denies by sprawling the first shot behind his 75% takedown defense, framing back to range, and making every level change cost power punches and knees.

Secondary route

Pace-and-volume striking decision: win minutes with 61%-accuracy combinations and clinch pressure when clean takedowns are unavailable.

Access:
A sustains output near his 4.57 landed per minute against B's 4.78 absorbed per minute and mixes clinch elbows as documented vs Dolidze.
Denied if:
B denies by cutting off the cage, answering volume with heavier single shots, and forcing A to shoot from open distance.

Emergency route

Survive the early storm, extend to championship rounds, and finish a faded B late, the pattern of B's round-4 stoppage loss to Cannonier.

Access:
A's three recorded five-round bouts and 549-second average fight time let him hold pace into rounds 4-5, where B's only recorded five-round outing ended by stoppage.
Denied if:
B denies by ending the fight early, consistent with his 78.9% finish rate and 439-second average fight time, before deep rounds arrive.

Paths to victory

Gregory Rodrigues

Primary route

Early knockout: keep the bout standing and land finishing power in the first two rounds, consistent with his twelve career KO/TKO wins.

Access:
B exploits A's 51% striking defense with 5.53 significant strikes landed per minute and uses his 3.2-inch height edge for straight shots and knees as A enters.
Denied if:
A denies by crowding instantly, chaining takedown attempts, and never allowing B extended open-space exchanges.

Secondary route

Sprawl-and-volume decision: defend takedowns at his 75% rate and out-land A over five rounds, replicating the Kopylov performance.

Access:
B keeps the fight upright as he did vs Kopylov, where his opponent's wrestling produced nothing, and wins volume exchanges at range.
Denied if:
A denies by chaining attempts so single-shot defense cannot reset position, and by banking clinch control minutes against the fence.

Emergency route

Counter the level change: time knees and uppercuts on A's entries and stop him the way Strickland did in round 3.

Access:
B reads A's shot cadence and lands fight-altering counters during entries, exploiting A's two KO/TKO defeats and the documented body-knee vulnerability.
Denied if:
A denies by varying entries behind strikes, shooting in chains rather than isolated singles, and avoiding predictable level drops.

04 / Audit trail

Sources, conflicts, and limitations

Receipt-backed sources

  1. https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/story/sports/ufc/2025/11/15/ufc-322-maddalena-makhachev-shevchenko-weili-title-fights-live-updates-results/87281630007/Retrieved 8/21/2026
  2. https://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/d1c65d2cf2925dddRetrieved 8/22/2026
  3. https://www.mmafighting.com/ufc/398325/ufc-vegas-109-live-blog-roman-dolidze-vs-anthony-hernandezRetrieved 8/21/2026
  4. https://www.mmafighting.com/ufc/472691/ufc-houston-live-blog-sean-strickland-vs-anthony-hernandezRetrieved 8/18/2026
  5. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Anthony-Hernandez-86783Retrieved 8/20/2026
  6. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Gregory-Rodrigues-176275Retrieved 8/20/2026
  7. https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC-322-Della-Maddalena-vs-Makhachev-PlaybyPlay-Results-Round-Scoring-199054Retrieved 8/22/2026
  8. https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC-Houston-Strickland-vs-Hernandez-PlaybyPlay-Results-Round-Scoring-200193Retrieved 8/22/2026
  9. https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC-Seattle-Cejudo-vs-Song-PlaybyPlay-Results-Round-Scoring-196230Retrieved 8/22/2026
  10. https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC-Vegas-109-Dolidze-vs-Hernandez-PlaybyPlay-Results-Round-Scoring-197977Retrieved 8/22/2026
  11. https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC-Vegas-99-Hernandez-vs-Pereira-PlaybyPlay-Results-Round-Scoring-195258Retrieved 8/22/2026
  12. https://www.tapology.com/gyms/724-xtreme-coutureRetrieved 2/12/2026
  13. https://www.ufc.com/athlete/anthony-hernandezRetrieved 8/22/2026
  14. https://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-fight-night-august-22-2026Retrieved 8/22/2026
  15. https://www.ufcstats.com/fighter-details/093e1f5bb73850beRetrieved 6/5/2026

Unavailable evidence

  • None declared.

Unresolved conflicts

None declared.

Limitations

  • None declared.

Free · Tale of the tape

Tale of the tape

Anthony HernandezStatGregory Rodrigues
15-4-0 (1 NC)Record20-6-0
6′0″ · 183 cmHeight6′3″ · 191 cm
75″ · 191 cmReach75″ · 191 cm
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox

Evidence checked through Aug 22, on or after weigh-in day.

This is the original pre-fight pick retained after the event. Its settled result appears in the public Track Record.

Authorship, limitations, and corrections

Generated automatically by The Oracle. No individual human reviews each prediction before publication.

Blueprint MMA publishes the report and the Oracle Engine generates it. Sources can be incomplete, outdated, or wrong, and late injuries, cancellations, weigh-in changes, or market movement can change the fight after the displayed cutoff.

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