Baisangur Susurkaev vs Djorden Santos, UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland prediction and deep analysis
Baisangur Susurkaev/Djorden Santos
middleweightWinner Committee
Thirty-three specialists answer distinct winner-only questions. Eligible evidence is renormalized only inside its original lane.
Fight-State Projection
These are distributions of eligible committee signal mass—not invented percentages of fight time.
Conditional Method Model
Each row is conditional on that fighter already winning; every fighter row sums to 100%.
Conditional Round Model
Round-event mass is derived from survival-conditioned hazards. The final scheduled round is absorbing.
Probability Reconciliation
The exact-outcome grid preserves both winner marginals and sums to 100%. Decision branches have no round.
Output Selection
The winner and every outcome label come from one immutable reconciled distribution. Oversight may widen uncertainty, never move the point forecast.
Key Takeaways
- The War Room Committee picks Baisangur Susurkaev (62% win probability).
- Baisangur Susurkaev path. "Convert one clean counter into a finishing sequence": Win the first read exchange and use the accuracy edge (59% vs 46%) to discourage Santos' counter rhythm
- Djorden Santos path. "Drag the read fight into deep water": Refuse to commit to exchanges in round one, force Susurkaev to lead and miss
- Risk: Counter-on-counter pace drifts to a decision
- Risk: Santos' lifetime durability holds
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Baisangur Susurkaev vs Djorden Santos?
Baisangur Susurkaev won. Blueprint MMA's pre-fight pick was Baisangur Susurkaev.
Who wins Baisangur Susurkaev vs Djorden Santos?
Blueprint MMA's War Room Committee picks Baisangur Susurkaev with a 62% win probability.
What could change the outcome of Baisangur Susurkaev vs Djorden Santos?
Counter-on-counter pace drifts to a decision: Two counter archetypes with low base output can produce a feeling-out fight that never escapes the read phase, and Santos' deeper cardio and chin are built for exactly that scenario. Santos' lifetime durability holds: Zero career stoppage losses across an 11-plus year tenure is a real signal — if the chin holds through round two, the finish probability collapses fast and the decision becomes contested. Susurkaev's takedown attempts get reversed: takedown accuracy means most attempts fail; against a veteran with grappling tenure, a failed shot can flip position and hand Santos a round he otherwise wouldn't win.
How does Blueprint MMA make this prediction?
Blueprint MMA validates and freezes the fight data, then runs 68 Kimi K2.6 agent executions: 33 Winner, 10 Method, 20 Timing, and 5 non-voting Oversight. Kimi K2.6 is the only inference model; LangGraph only orchestrates stage order and state. Winner agents fix the point probability first, Method and Timing agents fill conditional branches without reopening it, and Oversight audits without voting. The public probability is held to a sane 5-95% range and logged before release. Published winner probabilities are AI-only. Market prices may be shown for benchmarking, CLV, and workflow context, but they do not select, rank, or alter the published forecast. If the direct pipeline cannot return a valid read, the forecast is held. Methodology is documented at https://blueprintmma.com/manifesto and accuracy is tracked publicly at https://blueprintmma.com/track-record.