Published pick
Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast
- Winner
- Chris Padilla
- Win probability
- 53.1%
- Strength
- Slight lean
- Evidence
- 6/7 lenses · partial
- Agreement
- 5 pick · 0 opponent · 1 neutral · 1 abstain
How this pick was published
Generated automatically by The Oracle. No individual human reviews each prediction before publication.
- Engine version
- Earlier engine version
- Source cutoff
- Publication lock
Win probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Hit rate is not profitability. Correction policy
How does Chris Padilla win?
The winner and win probability are free. The full breakdown answers the rest:
How it ends
The likely method and round if Chris Padilla wins, and the chance it goes the distance.
Both cases
Chris Padilla's case and Nasrat Haqparast's case, each with the evidence behind it.
Where it breaks
What each case needs, where it fails, and what would change the pick.
Free · Tale of the tape
Tale of the tape
| Chris Padilla | Stat | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| 18-6-1 | Record | 18-7-0 |
| 5′9″ · 175 cm | Height | 5′10″ · 178 cm |
| 74″ · 188 cm | Reach | 72″ · 183 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Southpaw |
Evidence checked through Aug 21, on or after weigh-in day.
This is the original pre-fight pick retained after the event. Its settled result appears in the public Track Record.
Publication context
How to read this forecast
This immutable automated forecast covers Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues on August 22, 2026. Its public winner, probability, source cutoff, and publication lock remain attached to the matchup for later grading.
A probability is an estimate, not a promise. The 53.1% estimate still allows the opponent a meaningful upset path, and hit rate must not be treated as evidence of betting profitability.
Publication details
See when and how this pick was checked
+
See when and how this pick was checked
+- Forecast engine
- The Oracle by Blueprint MMA
- Engine version
- Earlier engine version
- Information checked through
- Aug 21, 2026, 5:23 PM UTC
- Published
- Aug 21, 2026, 6:40 PM UTC
- Page data generated
- Oct 27, 2026, 11:50 AM UTC
- Data revision
- 13631b51b37d3251dcef97b2771a0080d7ccd8051ba3d9578dae92ea80aedd79
Checks made before publication
- • The event and matchup must agree.
- • Each fighter and fight must be uniquely identified.
- • The winner and win probability must be saved before the fight.
- • The website and public data must show the same pick.
Each fight uses one saved, source-linked research file. The engine weighs supporting and contradictory evidence, records uncertainty, and publishes its estimated win probability with the original evidence cutoff.
Authorship, limitations, and corrections
Generated automatically by The Oracle. No individual human reviews each prediction before publication.
Blueprint MMA publishes the report and the Oracle Engine generates it. Sources can be incomplete, outdated, or wrong, and late injuries, cancellations, weigh-in changes, or market movement can change the fight after the displayed cutoff.
Blueprint MMA never equates hit rate with profitability and makes no profit guarantee. Review the methodology, correction policy, settled proof, and current UFC prediction board.