Published pick
Dan Ige vs Melquizael Costa
- Winner
- Melquizael Costa
- Win probability
- 51%
- Strength
- Near coin flip
How this pick was published
Generated automatically by The Oracle. No individual human reviews each prediction before publication.
- Source cutoff
- Publication lock
Win probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Hit rate is not profitability. Correction policy
How does Melquizael Costa win?
The winner and win probability are free. The full breakdown answers the rest:
How it ends
The likely method and round if Melquizael Costa wins, and the chance it goes the distance.
Both cases
Dan Ige's case and Melquizael Costa's case, each with the evidence behind it.
Where it breaks
What each case needs, where it fails, and what would change the pick.
Free · Tale of the tape
Tale of the tape
Evidence checked through Feb 21, on or after weigh-in day.
Result: Melquizael Costa beat Dan Ige. The pre-fight pick, Melquizael Costa, was correct. This is the original pre-fight pick retained after the event. Its settled result appears in the public Track Record.
Publication context
How to read this forecast
This immutable automated forecast covers Dan Ige vs Melquizael Costa at UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez on February 21, 2026 in the Featherweight division. Its public winner, probability, source cutoff, and publication lock remain attached to the matchup for later grading.
A probability is an estimate, not a promise. The 51% estimate still allows the opponent a meaningful upset path, and hit rate must not be treated as evidence of betting profitability.
Publication details
See when and how this pick was checked
+
See when and how this pick was checked
+- Forecast engine
- The Oracle by Blueprint MMA
- Engine version
- Recorded on the original pick
- Information checked through
- Feb 21, 2026, 11:44 PM UTC
- Published
- Feb 21, 2026, 11:44 PM UTC
- Page data generated
- Oct 27, 2026, 12:15 PM UTC
- Data revision
- e3366ffd9ac7705ee0b7dc5a3f4fd0a3cae0a0649a3e809063a21ee081dffa51
Checks made before publication
- • The event and matchup must agree.
- • Each fighter and fight must be uniquely identified.
- • The winner and win probability must be saved before the fight.
- • The website and public data must show the same pick.
Each fight uses one saved, source-linked research file. The engine weighs supporting and contradictory evidence, records uncertainty, and publishes its estimated win probability with the original evidence cutoff.
Authorship, limitations, and corrections
Generated automatically by The Oracle. No individual human reviews each prediction before publication.
Blueprint MMA publishes the report and the Oracle Engine generates it. Sources can be incomplete, outdated, or wrong, and late injuries, cancellations, weigh-in changes, or market movement can change the fight after the displayed cutoff.
Blueprint MMA never equates hit rate with profitability and makes no profit guarantee. Review the methodology, correction policy, settled proof, and current UFC prediction board.