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What members read before the fight

Result: Delphine Benouaich beat Sofia Montenegro. The pick, Sofia Montenegro, missed. The full breakdown below is unchanged from its publication on August 30, 2026. Every fight opens like this once it is graded.

Read this week's card before it starts

01 / Official verdict

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse

Delphine Benouaich / Sofia Montenegro

Official winner

Sofia Montenegro

Conditional outcome if the pick wins: Decision

Win probability

56.4%

Clearer lean

30-second blueprint

The whole call at a glance

Winner · strength

Sofia Montenegro · 56.4%

Clearer lean

Evidence coverage

4/7 supported

Partial evidence

Lens agreement

2 pick · 2 opponent

0 neutral · 3 abstain

Source cutoff

Aug 30, 2026, 9:10 PM UTC

No unresolved structured conflicts

Leading drivers

  1. 01Physical · 40.8% effective share
    Montenegro holds every measurable edge: 66.1 in height vs 64.2, a listed 67.3 in reach with no reach on file for Benouaich, and roughly a five-year age advantage (2000 vs 1995 birth years), fighting orthodox. Benouaich's file contains only height and birthdate, so no offsetting attribute is documented; she is a career strawweight while Montenegro's 57 kg listing and flyweight history suggest a larger frame moving down.
  2. 02Statistical · 40.8% effective share
    Montenegro owns the only informative sample: 4.27 SLpM at 40% accuracy, 1.0 takedowns per 15 at 25% accuracy, 100% takedown defense, 66.7% finish rate, and a 455-second average fight time, but she absorbs 5.67 strikes per minute behind 48% defense, a negative differential. Every Benouaich statistic is zero-valued, meaning no recorded official sample, so her output and defense cannot be quantified. Edge to Montenegro on measurable activity, tempered by her defensive leakage.
  3. 03Trajectory · 11.2% effective share
    Benouaich is 7-2 with four KO/TKO wins, has never been finished (both losses on scorecards, one over five rounds), and won her latest by first-round submission in Dec 2025. Montenegro is 6-2; her three KO wins all predate 2023, her last three outings all went to scorecards including a Contender Series decision loss in Sep 2025, she was stopped in round one in 2022, and her derived rating is modest (elo 1484, recent performance 0.25, negative performance-versus-expectation). Recent form and durability favor Benouaich.

Upset route · Delphine Benouaich

  1. Primary route: Inside pressure boxing culminating in a KO/TKO
  2. Secondary route: Early takedown into a top-position submission
  3. Emergency route: High-pace three-round decision

02 / Matchup analysis

Seven evidence lenses

Lens 01 · 0% effective share

Stylistic

Configured weight: 20%

Abstained

The packet contains no film-capable sources and zero declared style projections for either fighter, so stance habits, range preferences, and phase tendencies cannot be characterized for Benouaich or Montenegro. Abstaining rather than substituting statistical or record proxies for style.

Uncertainty: Stylistic evidence was unavailable at the source cutoff.

Lens 02 · 40.8% effective share

Physical

Configured weight: 20%

Supported

Montenegro holds every measurable edge: 66.1 in height vs 64.2, a listed 67.3 in reach with no reach on file for Benouaich, and roughly a five-year age advantage (2000 vs 1995 birth years), fighting orthodox. Benouaich's file contains only height and birthdate, so no offsetting attribute is documented; she is a career strawweight while Montenegro's 57 kg listing and flyweight history suggest a larger frame moving down.

Uncertainty: Benouaich's reach and stance are unlisted, and Montenegro's strawweight cut from a 57 kg listing is untested with weigh-in unverified.

Lens 03 · 0% effective share

Film

Configured weight: 15%

Abstained

No film observations exist for either fighter; the category grades unavailable with no capable source URLs. No sequence-level technique, defensive habit, or adjustment evidence can be reviewed, so this lens abstains.

Uncertainty: Film evidence was unavailable at the source cutoff.

Lens 04 · 40.8% effective share

Statistical

Configured weight: 20%

Supported

Montenegro owns the only informative sample: 4.27 SLpM at 40% accuracy, 1.0 takedowns per 15 at 25% accuracy, 100% takedown defense, 66.7% finish rate, and a 455-second average fight time, but she absorbs 5.67 strikes per minute behind 48% defense, a negative differential. Every Benouaich statistic is zero-valued, meaning no recorded official sample, so her output and defense cannot be quantified. Edge to Montenegro on measurable activity, tempered by her defensive leakage.

Uncertainty: Benouaich's profile is entirely zero-valued with no usable sample; Montenegro's sample is small and 86 days old.

Lens 05 · 11.2% effective share

Trajectory

Configured weight: 11%

Supported

Benouaich is 7-2 with four KO/TKO wins, has never been finished (both losses on scorecards, one over five rounds), and won her latest by first-round submission in Dec 2025. Montenegro is 6-2; her three KO wins all predate 2023, her last three outings all went to scorecards including a Contender Series decision loss in Sep 2025, she was stopped in round one in 2022, and her derived rating is modest (elo 1484, recent performance 0.25, negative performance-versus-expectation). Recent form and durability favor Benouaich.

Uncertainty: Nearly all bouts for both were regional-level against unverified opposition, and Montenegro fought at flyweight; strength of schedule is uncertain.

Lens 06 · 7.1% effective share

Situational

Configured weight: 7%

Supported

Both fighters accepted on 16 days' notice, so the short-camp tax is symmetric. Benouaich competed more recently (Dec 2025 vs Sep 2025) and owns one five-round bout, though this is a three-rounder; Montenegro has no five-round exposure. Weigh-in is unverified and no travel facts exist for the Paris venue. Montenegro's recorded team context (UFC Performance Institute) is her main offsetting asset. Slight recency-of-activity edge to Benouaich.

Uncertainty: Both on 16-day notice with weigh-in unverified; no travel or camp-readiness facts; recorded UFC exposure counts appear inconsistent with listed fight histories.

Lens 07 · 0% effective share

Preparation

Configured weight: 7%

Abstained

Only one preparation item exists (Montenegro's team listing) and the category grades unavailable with no capable source for Benouaich. Camp quality, coaching, sparring, and health cannot be assessed for either side, so this lens abstains with no cited items.

Uncertainty: Preparation evidence was unavailable at the source cutoff.

03 / Fight paths

How each fighter wins

Paths to victory

Delphine Benouaich

Primary route

Inside pressure boxing culminating in a KO/TKO

Access:
Close Montenegro's two-inch reach edge into mid and close range and force exchanges; she absorbs 5.67 sig strikes per minute behind 48% defense and was stopped in round one in 2022.
Denied if:
Montenegro must stay long behind the jab, pot-shot at 4.27 SLpM, and refuse extended exchanges.

Secondary route

Early takedown into a top-position submission

Access:
Convert clinch entries to mat time and attack the neck, replicating the round-one submission win in her most recent bout.
Denied if:
Montenegro must deploy her 100% recorded takedown defense and scramble upright immediately.

Emergency route

High-pace three-round decision

Access:
Sustain the pace shown in a prior five-round bout, out-volume in the pocket, and bank rounds as in her two decision wins.
Denied if:
Montenegro must win the striking differential cleanly at range to take the scorecards.

Paths to victory

Sofia Montenegro

Primary route

Long-range volume striking to a decision

Access:
Fight behind the 67.3 in reach at 4.27 SLpM; Benouaich has no recorded official defensive statistics showing she can stop it.
Denied if:
Benouaich must cross two inches of reach without eating counters and force inside exchanges.

Secondary route

Counter KO/TKO against forward pressure

Access:
Time Benouaich's entries with power counters; three career KO/TKO wins and a 66.7% finish rate support the route.
Denied if:
Benouaich must vary level and angle on entries; she has never been finished, so single shots may not suffice.

Emergency route

Sprawl-and-brawl to the scorecards

Access:
Use 100% recorded takedown defense to keep the fight standing and edge three rounds on volume and accuracy.
Denied if:
Benouaich must complete takedowns or land clearly cleaner power shots to steal rounds.

04 / Audit trail

Sources, conflicts, and limitations

Receipt-backed sources

  1. https://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/3138df4d117ebc12Retrieved 8/30/2026
  2. https://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/8b1b051038354655Retrieved 6/5/2026
  3. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Delphine-Benouaich-413666Retrieved 8/30/2026
  4. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Sofia-Montenegro-392313Retrieved 8/30/2026
  5. https://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-fight-night-september-05-2026Retrieved 8/30/2026

Unavailable evidence

  • • Stylistic: Stylistic evidence was unavailable at the source cutoff.
  • • Film: Film evidence was unavailable at the source cutoff.
  • • Preparation: Preparation evidence was unavailable at the source cutoff.

Unresolved conflicts

None declared.

Limitations

  • • Both fighters accepted on 16 days' notice, adding preparation variance not measurable from the packet.; Context bindings for recorded UFC bout exposure appear inconsistent with listed fight histories and were weighted cautiously.; Fighter A's official statistics are all zero-valued, providing no usable UFC-level statistical sample.; Fighter A's reach and stance are unlisted, limiting physical comparison completeness.; Fighter B's bout history is at flyweight; this is a strawweight bout and the weigh-in is unverified.; Film, stylistic, and preparation categories are unavailable; no technique-level or camp evidence exists.; Nearly all recorded bouts for both fighters occurred at regional promotions against unverified opposition.; No travel, injury, or weight-cut facts are in the packet.; film evidence unavailable; preparation evidence unavailable; stylistic evidence unavailable
  • • Method lanes rest largely on regional fight history; Benouaich has no recorded official statistical sample.
  • • Montenegro's prior bouts were at flyweight; finishing equity at strawweight is untested.
  • • Finish-round distribution is estimated from small bout samples for both fighters.

Free · Tale of the tape

Tale of the tape

Delphine BenouaichStatSofia Montenegro
8-2-0Record6-3-0
5′3″ · 160 cmHeight5′6″ · 168 cm
63″ · 160 cmReach67″ · 171 cm
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox

Evidence checked through Aug 30, before weigh-ins. Misses, scratches, or replacements announced later are not reflected in this pick.

Result: Delphine Benouaich beat Sofia Montenegro. The pre-fight pick, Sofia Montenegro, missed. This is the original pre-fight pick retained after the event. Its settled result appears in the public Track Record.

Authorship, limitations, and corrections

Generated automatically by The Oracle. No individual human reviews each prediction before publication.

Blueprint MMA publishes the report and the Oracle Engine generates it. Sources can be incomplete, outdated, or wrong, and late injuries, cancellations, weigh-in changes, or market movement can change the fight after the displayed cutoff.

Blueprint MMA never equates hit rate with profitability and makes no profit guarantee. Review the methodology, correction policy, settled proof, and current UFC prediction board.