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Felipe Bunes vs Édgar Cháirez, UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh prediction and deep analysis

FIGHT COMPLETEResult: Edgar ChairezEngine pick: Felipe BunesUpcoming predictions →
Flyweight · 3RMAIN CARD
Published 154d ago

// Target · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Mar 01, 2026

Felipe Bunes vs Édgar Cháirez: Statistical Breakdown.

Data-driven breakdown for Felipe Bunes vs Édgar Cháirez. Statistical analysis, method probabilities, and AI prediction.

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// Tale Of The TapeStructural delta
Felipe Bunes
14-6
Édgar Cháirez
14-10
5'7"Height5'7"
71"Reach69"
30Age36
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
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Felipe Bunes vs Édgar Cháirez — By The Numbers

Model Pick: Felipe Bunes (51% confidence via Decision)

Method Probabilities

  • KO/TKO: 18%
  • Submission: 26%
  • Decision: 56%

Statistical Edge

Both fighters bring contrasting skill sets into this matchup. Our 57-module AI engine has analyzed hundreds of data points to produce this breakdown.

The Verdict

Based on comprehensive statistical modeling, Felipe Bunes holds the edge in this matchup.

Weighted specialist opinions favor Felipe: the highest-weighted specialist (Striking Coach) plus Grappling and market inputs produce a clear weighted plurality. Method signals conflict (KO vs Submission vs Decision), and both fighters carry injury flags, reducing confidence. Market implies 70.7% for Felipe but the hurdle rate requires 76% to justify a pure favorite play; our final confidence falls short. Given weighted evidence and risk controls, Felipe is still the projected winner but with limited edge.

Analysis powered by The Blueprint MMA War Room Committee Engine

07 / 07

War Room Committee_

War Room Committee Verdict [LOCKED]

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Track Record
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  • Overall accuracy70%· 96 fights
  • Calibration gradeC· brier 0.232

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Felipe Bunes vs Édgar Cháirez?

Edgar Chairez won. Blueprint MMA's pre-fight pick was Felipe Bunes.

Who wins Felipe Bunes vs Édgar Cháirez?

Blueprint MMA's War Room Committee picks Felipe Bunes with a 51% win probability.

How does Blueprint MMA make this prediction?

Blueprint MMA validates and freezes the fight data, then runs 68 Kimi K2.6 agent executions: 33 Winner, 10 Method, 20 Timing, and 5 non-voting Oversight. Kimi K2.6 is the only inference model; LangGraph only orchestrates stage order and state. Winner agents fix the point probability first, Method and Timing agents fill conditional branches without reopening it, and Oversight audits without voting. The public probability is held to a sane 5-95% range and logged before release. Published winner probabilities are AI-only. Market prices may be shown for benchmarking, CLV, and workflow context, but they do not select, rank, or alter the published forecast. If the direct pipeline cannot return a valid read, the forecast is held. Methodology is documented at https://blueprintmma.com/manifesto and accuracy is tracked publicly at https://blueprintmma.com/track-record.

Methodology and Attribution

Author: War Room Committee Desk

Reviewer: Blueprint MMA Research Desk

Published: Feb 24, 2026Updated: Feb 24, 2026