Published pick
Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim
- Winner
- Ismael Bonfim
- Win probability
- 52.5%
- Strength
- Slight lean
How the 52.5% figure was built
- DebateAI debate
- 61%
- 25% weight
- MarketBetting market
- 51.5%
- 50% weight
- BaselineStatistical baseline
- 46.1%
- 25% weight
Each figure is Ismael Bonfim’s chance from the AI debate, the betting market with the bookmaker’s margin removed, and a statistical baseline, weighted as shown. They span 14.9 points. The inputs disagree widely. The wider the spread, the less sure the forecast.
Why Ismael Bonfim
Bonfim is favored because his longer reach, higher recorded striking output and accuracy, stronger striking defense, and 76 percent takedown defense give him the clearer open space and entry denial advantages. Bonfim is the more likely winner because the verified bilateral evidence gives him directional edges in open space and at the fence.
Generated automatically by The Oracle. No individual human reviews each prediction before publication.
- Engine version
- AI debate v1
- Source cutoff
- Publication lock
Win probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Hit rate is not profitability. Correction policy
Full blueprint outline
See exactly what Sharp opens
The structure is public. Matchup-specific conclusions remain behind the verified access check.
01 · Finish projection
Likely method & round
A conditional finish lane plus the assumptions that could overturn it.
02 · Matchup analysis
Evidence and matchup analysis
Supporting and conflicting evidence, tactical interactions, and the uncertainty behind the pick.
03 and 04 · Decision support
Paths, evidence & limits
Both fighters' win paths, supporting and contradictory receipts, uncertainty, and declared limitations.
Free · Tale of the tape
Tale of the tape
| Francisco Prado | Stat | Ismael Bonfim |
|---|---|---|
| 12-5-0 | Record | 20-6-0 |
| 5′10″ · 178 cm | Height | 5′8″ · 173 cm |
| 69″ · 175 cm | Reach | 71″ · 180 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
Evidence checked through Oct 6, before weigh-ins. Misses, scratches, or replacements announced later are not reflected in this pick.
Result: Francisco Prado beat Ismael Bonfim. The pre-fight pick, Ismael Bonfim, missed. This is the original pre-fight pick retained after the event. Its settled result appears in the public Track Record.
Publication context
How to read this forecast
This immutable automated forecast covers Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan on October 10, 2026. Its public winner, probability, source cutoff, and publication lock remain attached to the matchup for later grading.
A probability is an estimate, not a promise. The 52.5% estimate still allows the opponent a meaningful upset path, and hit rate must not be treated as evidence of betting profitability.
Publication details
See when and how this pick was checked
+
See when and how this pick was checked
+- Forecast engine
- The Oracle by Blueprint MMA
- Engine version
- AI debate v1
- Information checked through
- Oct 6, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC
- Published
- Oct 6, 2026, 8:44 PM UTC
- Page data generated
- Oct 27, 2026, 9:25 AM UTC
- Data revision
- bafbeb9637d6c2ab5fc9868f7edde25181b5bca77ae07affc42071fa77526b50
Checks made before publication
- • The event and matchup must agree.
- • Each fighter and fight must be uniquely identified.
- • The winner and win probability must be saved before the fight.
- • The website and public data must show the same pick.
Each fight uses one saved, source-linked research file. The engine weighs supporting and contradictory evidence, records uncertainty, and publishes its estimated win probability with the original evidence cutoff.
Authorship, limitations, and corrections
Generated automatically by The Oracle. No individual human reviews each prediction before publication.
Blueprint MMA publishes the report and the Oracle Engine generates it. Sources can be incomplete, outdated, or wrong, and late injuries, cancellations, weigh-in changes, or market movement can change the fight after the displayed cutoff.
Blueprint MMA never equates hit rate with profitability and makes no profit guarantee. Review the methodology, correction policy, settled proof, and current UFC prediction board.