Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki, UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland prediction and deep analysis
Grant Dawson/Mateusz Rebecki
lightweightWinner Committee
Thirty-three specialists answer distinct winner-only questions. Eligible evidence is renormalized only inside its original lane.
Fight-State Projection
These are distributions of eligible committee signal mass—not invented percentages of fight time.
Conditional Method Model
Each row is conditional on that fighter already winning; every fighter row sums to 100%.
Conditional Round Model
Round-event mass is derived from survival-conditioned hazards. The final scheduled round is absorbing.
Probability Reconciliation
The exact-outcome grid preserves both winner marginals and sums to 100%. Decision branches have no round.
Output Selection
The winner and every outcome label come from one immutable reconciled distribution. Oversight may widen uncertainty, never move the point forecast.
Key Takeaways
- The War Room Committee picks Grant Dawson (62% win probability).
- Grant Dawson path. "Entries, Control, Hunt The Back": Win at least one of the first two takedown attempts clean — closed-stance level change off the jab feint
- Mateusz Rebecki path. "Time The Entry, Crack The Chin": Sit on the southpaw straight as Dawson level-changes — replicate the Torres template
- Risk: Counter-southpaw chin check
- Risk: Takedown defense holds
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki?
Grant Dawson won. Blueprint MMA's pre-fight pick was Grant Dawson.
Who wins Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki?
Blueprint MMA's War Room Committee picks Grant Dawson with a 62% win probability.
What could change the outcome of Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki?
Counter-southpaw chin check: Rebecki's straight left timed on a level change is the same shape of punch that ended Dawson's December fight; one clean landing flips the call. Takedown defense holds: Rebecki's TD defense isn't reported, but if it holds at southpaw range and the fight stays standing, his accuracy edge starts winning rounds. Shared-camp scouting: Both men train at American Top Team — if Rebecki has live looks at Dawson's entry tells, the grappling primary loses some of its edge.
How does Blueprint MMA make this prediction?
Blueprint MMA validates and freezes the fight data, then runs 68 Kimi K2.6 agent executions: 33 Winner, 10 Method, 20 Timing, and 5 non-voting Oversight. Kimi K2.6 is the only inference model; LangGraph only orchestrates stage order and state. Winner agents fix the point probability first, Method and Timing agents fill conditional branches without reopening it, and Oversight audits without voting. The public probability is held to a sane 5-95% range and logged before release. Published winner probabilities are AI-only. Market prices may be shown for benchmarking, CLV, and workflow context, but they do not select, rank, or alter the published forecast. If the direct pipeline cannot return a valid read, the forecast is held. Methodology is documented at https://blueprintmma.com/manifesto and accuracy is tracked publicly at https://blueprintmma.com/track-record.