Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos, UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi prediction and deep analysis
Karol Rosa/Luana Santos
Women's BantamweightWinner Committee
Thirty-three specialists answer distinct winner-only questions. Eligible evidence is renormalized only inside its original lane.
Fight-State Projection
These are distributions of eligible committee signal mass—not invented percentages of fight time.
Conditional Method Model
Each row is conditional on that fighter already winning; every fighter row sums to 100%.
Conditional Round Model
Round-event mass is derived from survival-conditioned hazards. The final scheduled round is absorbing.
Probability Reconciliation
The exact-outcome grid preserves both winner marginals and sums to 100%. Decision branches have no round.
Output Selection
The winner and every outcome label come from one immutable reconciled distribution. Oversight may widen uncertainty, never move the point forecast.
Key Takeaways
- The War Room Committee picks Karol Rosa (51% win probability).
- Karol Rosa path. "Volume accumulation on the feet": Establish jab cadence early to set pace
- Luana Santos path. "Takedown-to-submission chain": Close distance behind feints to hide level changes
- Risk: Extended clinch stalemates
- Risk: Late-round cardio divergence
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos?
Luana Santos won. Blueprint MMA's pre-fight pick was Karol Rosa.
Who wins Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos?
Blueprint MMA's War Room Committee picks Karol Rosa with a 51% win probability.
What could change the outcome of Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos?
Extended clinch stalemates: If Santos cannot complete takedowns but pins Rosa against the fence, Rosa's volume advantage evaporates and judges may reward control over negligible damage. Late-round cardio divergence: Rosa's longer layoff and age gap raise questions about sustained output; if her pace drops, Santos' rising control trend becomes decisive. Submission threat without position: Santos has five submission wins but Rosa has never been stopped by submission; chasing finishes from disadvantageous positions risks top-control time for Rosa.
How does Blueprint MMA make this prediction?
Blueprint MMA validates and freezes the fight data, then runs 68 Kimi K2.6 agent executions: 33 Winner, 10 Method, 20 Timing, and 5 non-voting Oversight. Kimi K2.6 is the only inference model; LangGraph only orchestrates stage order and state. Winner agents fix the point probability first, Method and Timing agents fill conditional branches without reopening it, and Oversight audits without voting. The public probability is held to a sane 5-95% range and logged before release. Published winner probabilities are AI-only. Market prices may be shown for benchmarking, CLV, and workflow context, but they do not select, rank, or alter the published forecast. If the direct pipeline cannot return a valid read, the forecast is held. Methodology is documented at https://blueprintmma.com/manifesto and accuracy is tracked publicly at https://blueprintmma.com/track-record.