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What members read before the fight

Result: Kurtis Campbell beat Trevor Peek. The pick, Kurtis Campbell, was correct. The full breakdown below is unchanged from its publication on August 30, 2026. Every fight opens like this once it is graded.

Read this week's card before it starts

01 / Official verdict

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse

Kurtis Campbell / Trevor Peek

Official winner

Kurtis Campbell

Conditional outcome if the pick wins: Decision

Win probability

53.9%

Slight lean

30-second blueprint

The whole call at a glance

Winner · strength

Kurtis Campbell · 53.9%

Slight lean

Evidence coverage

7/7 supported

All lenses supported

Lens agreement

5 pick · 1 opponent

1 neutral · 0 abstain

Source cutoff

Aug 30, 2026, 10:45 PM UTC

No unresolved structured conflicts

Leading drivers

  1. 01Physical · 28.6% effective share
    Identical listed height (68.9in) and both switch stance, so no posture edge. Campbell holds +1.9in reach (72 vs 70.1) and is roughly seven years younger (born 2002 vs 1995), aiding the long kicks behind which he clinches and late-fight recovery. Listed mass is near equal (66 vs 65.8kg). Modest but real lean to Campbell; measurements capture nothing about hand speed, punching power or chin, where tape hints Peek owns undocumented edges.
  2. 02Statistical · 28.6% effective share
    Campbell attempts 8.76 takedowns per 15 at 40% accuracy; against Peek's 52% defense that projects to multiple completions per 15 minutes. Striking differential favors Campbell (+0.87 landed-minus-absorbed vs +0.51) with better defense (51% vs 43%) and far lower absorption (2.63 vs 3.88 per minute). Peek counters with volume (4.39 landed/min), accuracy (53%) and an 88.9% finish rate; Campbell shows zero knockdowns and zero submission attempts per 15, capping his proven impact. Numbers lean Campbell.
  3. 03Situational · 5% effective share
    Three-round unified-rules bout in Paris; both on 34 days notice, neither flagged short-notice. Decisive situational fact: Campbell competed 2026-03-21 while Peek's last recorded bout is 2024-09-07, roughly a two-year layoff. Campbell's Liverpool base implies short-haul travel to Paris versus transatlantic travel for Peek's US camps. Peek offsets with far deeper UFC exposure (12 recorded UFC bouts). Combined recency-plus-geography lean to Campbell.

Upset route · Trevor Peek

  1. Primary route: Early KO/TKO: pressure into the looping right hand that has defined his eight stoppage wins.
  2. Secondary route: Counter-wrestling: body-lock trips, mount rides and ground strikes off Campbell's own shots.
  3. Emergency route: Attrition decision: bank early damage, defend enough shots, edge rounds on volume if no finish lands.

02 / Matchup analysis

Seven evidence lenses

Lens 01 · 14.3% effective share

Stylistic

Configured weight: 20%

Supported

Campbell projects as a pressure clinch-wrestler: body locks, knees inside, chained takedowns, kicks at range. Peek projects as a swing-first brawler whose style views repeatedly show him pinned on the cage (Ashmouz), body-lock tripped (Mariscal) and leg-kicked while stalking (C.Campbell), exactly the phases Campbell attacks. Counterweight: Peek's looping 'home run' right hand targets the defensive lapse that had Campbell dropped by Silva. Projections are single-vote semantic views of film, not independent reads. Slight lean to Campbell's control identity over three rounds.

Uncertainty: Every stylistic item is a correlation-declared projection of the same film cluster, one vote each; no independent style sources, and Peek's tape ends in 2024.

Lens 02 · 28.6% effective share

Physical

Configured weight: 20%

Supported

Identical listed height (68.9in) and both switch stance, so no posture edge. Campbell holds +1.9in reach (72 vs 70.1) and is roughly seven years younger (born 2002 vs 1995), aiding the long kicks behind which he clinches and late-fight recovery. Listed mass is near equal (66 vs 65.8kg). Modest but real lean to Campbell; measurements capture nothing about hand speed, punching power or chin, where tape hints Peek owns undocumented edges.

Uncertainty: Weigh-in unverified; no strength, speed or durability metrics; Peek's age-related decline is inferred from birth year alone.

Lens 03 · 10.7% effective share

Film

Configured weight: 15%

Supported

Peek's tape repeats one pattern: pressure-boxing with fight-tilting power (two knockdowns vs Gonzalez, short hook vs Mariscal) but long stretches controlled on the cage (Ashmouz), body-lock tripped (Mariscal) and leg-kicked (C.Campbell); he also shows his own trip game (4/7 TDs, mount, 310s control vs Yahya). Campbell's tape shows persistent cage-wrestling and body-lock knees (Seck) but a stalled-shot sequence and a round-two right-hand knockdown loss (Silva). Campbell's best phase matches Peek's most repeated failure; Peek's best punch matches Campbell's freshest failure. Marginal lean to via

Uncertainty: Peek's newest footage is from 2024 with two unrecorded years; Campbell's recent tape is one regional-level win plus his stoppage loss; play-by-play snippets are partial.

Lens 04 · 28.6% effective share

Statistical

Configured weight: 20%

Supported

Campbell attempts 8.76 takedowns per 15 at 40% accuracy; against Peek's 52% defense that projects to multiple completions per 15 minutes. Striking differential favors Campbell (+0.87 landed-minus-absorbed vs +0.51) with better defense (51% vs 43%) and far lower absorption (2.63 vs 3.88 per minute). Peek counters with volume (4.39 landed/min), accuracy (53%) and an 88.9% finish rate; Campbell shows zero knockdowns and zero submission attempts per 15, capping his proven impact. Numbers lean Campbell.

Uncertainty: Rates mix UFC and pre-UFC opposition with thin samples for Campbell; no ground-strike or ride-time splits; sample recency differs between fighters.

Lens 05 · 7.9% effective share

Trajectory

Configured weight: 11%

Supported

Peek carries the deeper ledger (9-3, eight KO wins, all losses by decision, never stopped) and the stronger packet rating (glicko ~1673, deviation ~161), but he has dropped two straight decisions and has not fought since 2024-09-07. Campbell is 8-1 with five stoppage wins and a recent Contender Series knockout, yet his only UFC-level test ended in a round-two KO loss and his rating sits ~1518 glicko with a wide ~235 deviation on two linked fights. Proven level versus activity conflicts; slight lean to Peek's established floor.

Uncertainty: Peek's rating is frozen at his 2024 endpoint; Campbell's is high-deviation with low history linkage; neither trend line is current.

Lens 06 · 5% effective share

Situational

Configured weight: 7%

Supported

Three-round unified-rules bout in Paris; both on 34 days notice, neither flagged short-notice. Decisive situational fact: Campbell competed 2026-03-21 while Peek's last recorded bout is 2024-09-07, roughly a two-year layoff. Campbell's Liverpool base implies short-haul travel to Paris versus transatlantic travel for Peek's US camps. Peek offsets with far deeper UFC exposure (12 recorded UFC bouts). Combined recency-plus-geography lean to Campbell.

Uncertainty: Weigh-in unverified; travel strain inferred from team geography rather than measured; no climate, altitude or officiating data in packet.

Lens 07 · 5% effective share

Preparation

Configured weight: 7%

Supported

Preparation evidence contains only current-team listings, each with a retained source conflict. Campbell is listed across KC Fight Base, Liverpool Combat Academy and The MMA Academy; Peek is listed at Bang Muay Thai with a conflicting Agoge Combatives record. No coaching staff, sparring partners, camp length or interruption data exists for either fighter, so no defensible lean is possible; rated even.

Uncertainty: Team conflicts unresolved at source level; zero visibility into camp quality, health or sparring for both fighters.

03 / Fight paths

How each fighter wins

Paths to victory

Kurtis Campbell

Primary route

Wrestling-control decision: chained takedowns, cage body-locks and top rides across three rounds.

Access:
8.76 TD/15 at 40% accuracy meets Peek's 52% TD defense plus film of him pinned (Ashmouz) and body-lock tripped (Mariscal); entries open off Peek's forward rushes.
Denied if:
Peek must stuff the first clinch wave behind 52% TDD and punish entries with hooks; stuffed shots force a pure striking duel.

Secondary route

Counter-kick striking into a late KO/TKO: leg kicks and the high kick as Peek storms forward.

Access:
Peek's 43% striking defense, 3.88 absorbed per minute and documented leg damage while stalking open lanes for Campbell's kick game; 75% career finish rate.
Denied if:
Peek denies by cutting the cage and forcing pocket exchanges where Campbell was already dropped by Silva's right hand.

Emergency route

Attrition: survive the first five minutes, then out-work a two-year-layoff opponent down the stretch.

Access:
Peek last fought 2024-09; Campbell is younger, fought in March 2026, owns five-round experience and a 75% finish rate for late openings.
Denied if:
Peek denies by ending it early, six of his eight stoppage wins came inside round one.

Paths to victory

Trevor Peek

Primary route

Early KO/TKO: pressure into the looping right hand that has defined his eight stoppage wins.

Access:
Campbell was dropped and stopped by a round-two right hand in March; Peek lands 4.39 per minute at 53% with two knockdowns vs Gonzalez and an 88.9% finish rate.
Denied if:
Campbell denies by clinching entries on sight and kicking behind a +1.9in reach edge, never giving Peek a planted pocket.

Secondary route

Counter-wrestling: body-lock trips, mount rides and ground strikes off Campbell's own shots.

Access:
Campbell defends only 50% of takedowns and was reversed by Silva; Peek hit 4/7 TDs with 310 seconds of control and mount vs Yahya and 2/3 vs C.Campbell.
Denied if:
Campbell denies by winning scramble positions and immediately re-wrestling, keeping Peek's back off the mat.

Emergency route

Attrition decision: bank early damage, defend enough shots, edge rounds on volume if no finish lands.

Access:
Peek has never been finished and has gone 15 minutes repeatedly (three decision losses); 4.39 per minute volume at 53% accuracy can steal rounds.
Denied if:
Campbell denies with top control that smothers volume and banks the control time judges reward.

04 / Audit trail

Sources, conflicts, and limitations

Receipt-backed sources

  1. https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/story/sports/ufc/2024/04/06/ufc-fight-night-240-las-vegas-brendan-allen-vs-chris-curtis-play-by-play-live-results/73227608007/Retrieved 8/17/2026
  2. https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/story/sports/ufc/2024/09/07/ufc-fight-night-242-las-vegas-gilbert-burns-vs-sean-brady-live-updates-results/75119486007/Retrieved 8/30/2026
  3. https://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/0bc697c5936a2d0aRetrieved 6/5/2026
  4. https://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/9d51798e61f2e0c7Retrieved 6/11/2026
  5. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Kurtis-Campbell-302831Retrieved 8/30/2026
  6. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Trevor-Peek-280187Retrieved 8/30/2026
  7. https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Dana-Whites-Contender-Series-2025-Week-8-PlaybyPlay-and-Results-198532Retrieved 8/30/2026
  8. https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC-294-Makhachev-vs-Volkanovski-2-PlaybyPlay-Results-Round-Scoring-191460Retrieved 8/30/2026
  9. https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC-Fight-Night-220-Krylov-vs-Spann-PlaybyPlay-Results-Round-Scoring-189276Retrieved 8/30/2026
  10. https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC-Fight-Night-240-Allen-vs-Curtis-PlaybyPlay-Results-Round-Scoring-193227Retrieved 8/30/2026
  11. https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC-London-Evloev-vs-Murphy-playbyplay-results-round-scoring-200531Retrieved 8/30/2026
  12. https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC-on-ABC-5-Emmett-vs-Topuria-PlaybyPlay-Results-Round-Scoring-190340Retrieved 8/30/2026
  13. https://www.ufc.com/athlete/kurtis-campbellRetrieved 8/30/2026
  14. https://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-fight-night-september-05-2026Retrieved 8/30/2026

Unavailable evidence

  • None declared.

Unresolved conflicts

None declared.

Limitations

  • • Methods derive from career method mixes plus documented routes; no ground-strike or submission-defense metrics exist in packet.
  • • Round hazards lean on career ending-round patterns and opponent stoppage timing; samples are small.
  • • Both fighters record zero submission attempts per 15 minutes, so submission lanes carry minimal confidence.

Free · Tale of the tape

Tale of the tape

Kurtis CampbellStatTrevor Peek
9-1-0Record9-4-0 (1 NC)
5′9″ · 175 cmHeight5′9″ · 175 cm
72″ · 183 cmReach70″ · 178 cm
SwitchStanceSwitch

Evidence checked through Aug 30, before weigh-ins. Misses, scratches, or replacements announced later are not reflected in this pick.

Result: Kurtis Campbell beat Trevor Peek. The pre-fight pick, Kurtis Campbell, was correct. This is the original pre-fight pick retained after the event. Its settled result appears in the public Track Record.

Authorship, limitations, and corrections

Generated automatically by The Oracle. No individual human reviews each prediction before publication.

Blueprint MMA publishes the report and the Oracle Engine generates it. Sources can be incomplete, outdated, or wrong, and late injuries, cancellations, weigh-in changes, or market movement can change the fight after the displayed cutoff.

Blueprint MMA never equates hit rate with profitability and makes no profit guarantee. Review the methodology, correction policy, settled proof, and current UFC prediction board.