01 / Official verdict
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
Kurtis Campbell / Trevor Peek
Kurtis Campbell
Conditional outcome if the pick wins: Decision
53.9%
Slight lean
30-second blueprint
The whole call at a glance
Winner · strength
Kurtis Campbell · 53.9%
Slight lean
Evidence coverage
7/7 supported
All lenses supported
Lens agreement
5 pick · 1 opponent
1 neutral · 0 abstain
Source cutoff
Aug 30, 2026, 10:45 PM UTC
No unresolved structured conflicts
Leading drivers
- 01Physical · 28.6% effective share
Identical listed height (68.9in) and both switch stance, so no posture edge. Campbell holds +1.9in reach (72 vs 70.1) and is roughly seven years younger (born 2002 vs 1995), aiding the long kicks behind which he clinches and late-fight recovery. Listed mass is near equal (66 vs 65.8kg). Modest but real lean to Campbell; measurements capture nothing about hand speed, punching power or chin, where tape hints Peek owns undocumented edges. - 02Statistical · 28.6% effective share
Campbell attempts 8.76 takedowns per 15 at 40% accuracy; against Peek's 52% defense that projects to multiple completions per 15 minutes. Striking differential favors Campbell (+0.87 landed-minus-absorbed vs +0.51) with better defense (51% vs 43%) and far lower absorption (2.63 vs 3.88 per minute). Peek counters with volume (4.39 landed/min), accuracy (53%) and an 88.9% finish rate; Campbell shows zero knockdowns and zero submission attempts per 15, capping his proven impact. Numbers lean Campbell. - 03Situational · 5% effective share
Three-round unified-rules bout in Paris; both on 34 days notice, neither flagged short-notice. Decisive situational fact: Campbell competed 2026-03-21 while Peek's last recorded bout is 2024-09-07, roughly a two-year layoff. Campbell's Liverpool base implies short-haul travel to Paris versus transatlantic travel for Peek's US camps. Peek offsets with far deeper UFC exposure (12 recorded UFC bouts). Combined recency-plus-geography lean to Campbell.
Upset route · Trevor Peek
- Primary route: Early KO/TKO: pressure into the looping right hand that has defined his eight stoppage wins.
- Secondary route: Counter-wrestling: body-lock trips, mount rides and ground strikes off Campbell's own shots.
- Emergency route: Attrition decision: bank early damage, defend enough shots, edge rounds on volume if no finish lands.
02 / Matchup analysis
Seven evidence lenses
Effective share reflects the evidence that actually participated. Configured weight remains available in each lens header.
Lens 01 · 14.3% effective share
Stylistic
Configured weight: 20%
Supported
Lens 01 · 14.3% effective share
Stylistic
Configured weight: 20%
Campbell projects as a pressure clinch-wrestler: body locks, knees inside, chained takedowns, kicks at range. Peek projects as a swing-first brawler whose style views repeatedly show him pinned on the cage (Ashmouz), body-lock tripped (Mariscal) and leg-kicked while stalking (C.Campbell), exactly the phases Campbell attacks. Counterweight: Peek's looping 'home run' right hand targets the defensive lapse that had Campbell dropped by Silva. Projections are single-vote semantic views of film, not independent reads. Slight lean to Campbell's control identity over three rounds.
Uncertainty: Every stylistic item is a correlation-declared projection of the same film cluster, one vote each; no independent style sources, and Peek's tape ends in 2024.
Lens 02 · 28.6% effective share
Physical
Configured weight: 20%
Supported
Lens 02 · 28.6% effective share
Physical
Configured weight: 20%
Identical listed height (68.9in) and both switch stance, so no posture edge. Campbell holds +1.9in reach (72 vs 70.1) and is roughly seven years younger (born 2002 vs 1995), aiding the long kicks behind which he clinches and late-fight recovery. Listed mass is near equal (66 vs 65.8kg). Modest but real lean to Campbell; measurements capture nothing about hand speed, punching power or chin, where tape hints Peek owns undocumented edges.
Uncertainty: Weigh-in unverified; no strength, speed or durability metrics; Peek's age-related decline is inferred from birth year alone.
Lens 03 · 10.7% effective share
Film
Configured weight: 15%
Supported
Lens 03 · 10.7% effective share
Film
Configured weight: 15%
Peek's tape repeats one pattern: pressure-boxing with fight-tilting power (two knockdowns vs Gonzalez, short hook vs Mariscal) but long stretches controlled on the cage (Ashmouz), body-lock tripped (Mariscal) and leg-kicked (C.Campbell); he also shows his own trip game (4/7 TDs, mount, 310s control vs Yahya). Campbell's tape shows persistent cage-wrestling and body-lock knees (Seck) but a stalled-shot sequence and a round-two right-hand knockdown loss (Silva). Campbell's best phase matches Peek's most repeated failure; Peek's best punch matches Campbell's freshest failure. Marginal lean to via
Uncertainty: Peek's newest footage is from 2024 with two unrecorded years; Campbell's recent tape is one regional-level win plus his stoppage loss; play-by-play snippets are partial.
Lens 04 · 28.6% effective share
Statistical
Configured weight: 20%
Supported
Lens 04 · 28.6% effective share
Statistical
Configured weight: 20%
Campbell attempts 8.76 takedowns per 15 at 40% accuracy; against Peek's 52% defense that projects to multiple completions per 15 minutes. Striking differential favors Campbell (+0.87 landed-minus-absorbed vs +0.51) with better defense (51% vs 43%) and far lower absorption (2.63 vs 3.88 per minute). Peek counters with volume (4.39 landed/min), accuracy (53%) and an 88.9% finish rate; Campbell shows zero knockdowns and zero submission attempts per 15, capping his proven impact. Numbers lean Campbell.
Uncertainty: Rates mix UFC and pre-UFC opposition with thin samples for Campbell; no ground-strike or ride-time splits; sample recency differs between fighters.
Lens 05 · 7.9% effective share
Trajectory
Configured weight: 11%
Supported
Lens 05 · 7.9% effective share
Trajectory
Configured weight: 11%
Peek carries the deeper ledger (9-3, eight KO wins, all losses by decision, never stopped) and the stronger packet rating (glicko ~1673, deviation ~161), but he has dropped two straight decisions and has not fought since 2024-09-07. Campbell is 8-1 with five stoppage wins and a recent Contender Series knockout, yet his only UFC-level test ended in a round-two KO loss and his rating sits ~1518 glicko with a wide ~235 deviation on two linked fights. Proven level versus activity conflicts; slight lean to Peek's established floor.
Uncertainty: Peek's rating is frozen at his 2024 endpoint; Campbell's is high-deviation with low history linkage; neither trend line is current.
Lens 06 · 5% effective share
Situational
Configured weight: 7%
Supported
Lens 06 · 5% effective share
Situational
Configured weight: 7%
Three-round unified-rules bout in Paris; both on 34 days notice, neither flagged short-notice. Decisive situational fact: Campbell competed 2026-03-21 while Peek's last recorded bout is 2024-09-07, roughly a two-year layoff. Campbell's Liverpool base implies short-haul travel to Paris versus transatlantic travel for Peek's US camps. Peek offsets with far deeper UFC exposure (12 recorded UFC bouts). Combined recency-plus-geography lean to Campbell.
Uncertainty: Weigh-in unverified; travel strain inferred from team geography rather than measured; no climate, altitude or officiating data in packet.
Lens 07 · 5% effective share
Preparation
Configured weight: 7%
Supported
Lens 07 · 5% effective share
Preparation
Configured weight: 7%
Preparation evidence contains only current-team listings, each with a retained source conflict. Campbell is listed across KC Fight Base, Liverpool Combat Academy and The MMA Academy; Peek is listed at Bang Muay Thai with a conflicting Agoge Combatives record. No coaching staff, sparring partners, camp length or interruption data exists for either fighter, so no defensible lean is possible; rated even.
Uncertainty: Team conflicts unresolved at source level; zero visibility into camp quality, health or sparring for both fighters.
03 / Fight paths
How each fighter wins
Paths to victory
Kurtis Campbell
Primary route
Wrestling-control decision: chained takedowns, cage body-locks and top rides across three rounds.
- Access:
- 8.76 TD/15 at 40% accuracy meets Peek's 52% TD defense plus film of him pinned (Ashmouz) and body-lock tripped (Mariscal); entries open off Peek's forward rushes.
- Denied if:
- Peek must stuff the first clinch wave behind 52% TDD and punish entries with hooks; stuffed shots force a pure striking duel.
Secondary route
Counter-kick striking into a late KO/TKO: leg kicks and the high kick as Peek storms forward.
- Access:
- Peek's 43% striking defense, 3.88 absorbed per minute and documented leg damage while stalking open lanes for Campbell's kick game; 75% career finish rate.
- Denied if:
- Peek denies by cutting the cage and forcing pocket exchanges where Campbell was already dropped by Silva's right hand.
Emergency route
Attrition: survive the first five minutes, then out-work a two-year-layoff opponent down the stretch.
- Access:
- Peek last fought 2024-09; Campbell is younger, fought in March 2026, owns five-round experience and a 75% finish rate for late openings.
- Denied if:
- Peek denies by ending it early, six of his eight stoppage wins came inside round one.
Paths to victory
Trevor Peek
Primary route
Early KO/TKO: pressure into the looping right hand that has defined his eight stoppage wins.
- Access:
- Campbell was dropped and stopped by a round-two right hand in March; Peek lands 4.39 per minute at 53% with two knockdowns vs Gonzalez and an 88.9% finish rate.
- Denied if:
- Campbell denies by clinching entries on sight and kicking behind a +1.9in reach edge, never giving Peek a planted pocket.
Secondary route
Counter-wrestling: body-lock trips, mount rides and ground strikes off Campbell's own shots.
- Access:
- Campbell defends only 50% of takedowns and was reversed by Silva; Peek hit 4/7 TDs with 310 seconds of control and mount vs Yahya and 2/3 vs C.Campbell.
- Denied if:
- Campbell denies by winning scramble positions and immediately re-wrestling, keeping Peek's back off the mat.
Emergency route
Attrition decision: bank early damage, defend enough shots, edge rounds on volume if no finish lands.
- Access:
- Peek has never been finished and has gone 15 minutes repeatedly (three decision losses); 4.39 per minute volume at 53% accuracy can steal rounds.
- Denied if:
- Campbell denies with top control that smothers volume and banks the control time judges reward.
04 / Audit trail
Sources, conflicts, and limitations
04 / Audit trail
Sources, conflicts, and limitations
Receipt-backed sources
- https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/story/sports/ufc/2024/04/06/ufc-fight-night-240-las-vegas-brendan-allen-vs-chris-curtis-play-by-play-live-results/73227608007/Retrieved 8/17/2026
- https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/story/sports/ufc/2024/09/07/ufc-fight-night-242-las-vegas-gilbert-burns-vs-sean-brady-live-updates-results/75119486007/Retrieved 8/30/2026
- https://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/0bc697c5936a2d0aRetrieved 6/5/2026
- https://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/9d51798e61f2e0c7Retrieved 6/11/2026
- https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Kurtis-Campbell-302831Retrieved 8/30/2026
- https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Trevor-Peek-280187Retrieved 8/30/2026
- https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Dana-Whites-Contender-Series-2025-Week-8-PlaybyPlay-and-Results-198532Retrieved 8/30/2026
- https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC-294-Makhachev-vs-Volkanovski-2-PlaybyPlay-Results-Round-Scoring-191460Retrieved 8/30/2026
- https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC-Fight-Night-220-Krylov-vs-Spann-PlaybyPlay-Results-Round-Scoring-189276Retrieved 8/30/2026
- https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC-Fight-Night-240-Allen-vs-Curtis-PlaybyPlay-Results-Round-Scoring-193227Retrieved 8/30/2026
- https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC-London-Evloev-vs-Murphy-playbyplay-results-round-scoring-200531Retrieved 8/30/2026
- https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC-on-ABC-5-Emmett-vs-Topuria-PlaybyPlay-Results-Round-Scoring-190340Retrieved 8/30/2026
- https://www.ufc.com/athlete/kurtis-campbellRetrieved 8/30/2026
- https://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-fight-night-september-05-2026Retrieved 8/30/2026
Unavailable evidence
- None declared.
Unresolved conflicts
None declared.
Limitations
- • Methods derive from career method mixes plus documented routes; no ground-strike or submission-defense metrics exist in packet.
- • Round hazards lean on career ending-round patterns and opponent stoppage timing; samples are small.
- • Both fighters record zero submission attempts per 15 minutes, so submission lanes carry minimal confidence.
