Leon Shahbazyan vs Levan Chokheli, UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi prediction and deep analysis
Leon Shahbazyan/Levan Chokheli
WelterweightWinner Committee
Thirty-three specialists answer distinct winner-only questions. Eligible evidence is renormalized only inside its original lane.
Fight-State Projection
These are distributions of eligible committee signal mass—not invented percentages of fight time.
Conditional Method Model
Each row is conditional on that fighter already winning; every fighter row sums to 100%.
Conditional Round Model
Round-event mass is derived from survival-conditioned hazards. The final scheduled round is absorbing.
Probability Reconciliation
The exact-outcome grid preserves both winner marginals and sums to 100%. Decision branches have no round.
Output Selection
The winner and every outcome label come from one immutable reconciled distribution. Oversight may widen uncertainty, never move the point forecast.
Key Takeaways
- The War Room Committee picks Levan Chokheli (57% win probability).
- Leon Shahbazyan path. "Early grappling entry to submission": Close distance immediately before chin is tested
- Levan Chokheli path. "Standing power to exploit defensive gaps": Maintain range and force Shahbazyan to lead
- Risk: Chin gives out on first clean exchange
- Risk: Grappler gasses on six-day notice
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Leon Shahbazyan vs Levan Chokheli?
Levan Chokheli won. Blueprint MMA's pre-fight pick was Levan Chokheli.
Who wins Leon Shahbazyan vs Levan Chokheli?
Blueprint MMA's War Room Committee picks Levan Chokheli with a 57% win probability.
What could change the outcome of Leon Shahbazyan vs Levan Chokheli?
Chin gives out on first clean exchange: Shahbazyan's three lifetime KO losses and compromised strike defense mean one landed power shot could truncate any gameplan. Grappler gasses on six-day notice: Both camps are compressed; Shahbazyan's submission chain requires sustained output that short-notice cardio may not support. Layoff timing betrays Chokheli: Three hundred eighty-eight days away from competition plus six-day notice creates compound rust that could delay reaction time against an active opponent.
How does Blueprint MMA make this prediction?
Blueprint MMA validates and freezes the fight data, then runs 68 Kimi K2.6 agent executions: 33 Winner, 10 Method, 20 Timing, and 5 non-voting Oversight. Kimi K2.6 is the only inference model; LangGraph only orchestrates stage order and state. Winner agents fix the point probability first, Method and Timing agents fill conditional branches without reopening it, and Oversight audits without voting. The public probability is held to a sane 5-95% range and logged before release. Published winner probabilities are AI-only. Market prices may be shown for benchmarking, CLV, and workflow context, but they do not select, rank, or alter the published forecast. If the direct pipeline cannot return a valid read, the forecast is held. Methodology is documented at https://blueprintmma.com/manifesto and accuracy is tracked publicly at https://blueprintmma.com/track-record.