Published pick
Luis Hernandez vs Sedriques Dumas
- Winner
- Luis Hernandez
- Win probability
- 56%
- Strength
- Clearer lean
Why Luis Hernandez
Dumas retains meaningful open-space and extended-fight advantages through substantially greater height and reach, the larger and more UFC-exposed record, and Hernandez's one-day replacement assignment, keeping the margin modest. Hernandez's one-day replacement status, 11-day turnaround, move from middleweight to light heavyweight, absent UFC fight history, and unverified weigh-in materially reduce confidence.
Generated automatically by The Oracle. No individual human reviews each prediction before publication.
- Engine version
- AI debate v1
- Source cutoff
- Publication lock
Win probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Hit rate is not profitability. Correction policy
Full blueprint outline
See exactly what Sharp opens
The structure is public. Matchup-specific conclusions remain behind the verified access check.
01 · Finish projection
Likely method & round
A conditional finish lane plus the assumptions that could overturn it.
02 · Matchup analysis
Evidence and matchup analysis
Supporting and conflicting evidence, tactical interactions, and the uncertainty behind the pick.
03 and 04 · Decision support
Paths, evidence & limits
Both fighters' win paths, supporting and contradictory receipts, uncertainty, and declared limitations.
Free · Tale of the tape
Tale of the tape
| Luis Hernandez | Stat | Sedriques Dumas |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0-0 | Record | 10-6-0 (1 NC) |
| 5′9″ · 175 cm | Height | 6′2″ · 188 cm |
| 74″ · 187 cm | Reach | 79″ · 201 cm |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
Evidence checked through Sep 25, on or after weigh-in day.
Result: Luis Hernandez beat Sedriques Dumas by Submission in round 1. The pre-fight pick, Luis Hernandez, was correct. This is the original pre-fight pick retained after the event. Its settled result appears in the public Track Record.
Publication context
How to read this forecast
This immutable automated forecast covers Luis Hernandez vs Sedriques Dumas at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos on September 26, 2026. Its public winner, probability, source cutoff, and publication lock remain attached to the matchup for later grading.
A probability is an estimate, not a promise. The 56% estimate still allows the opponent a meaningful upset path, and hit rate must not be treated as evidence of betting profitability.
Publication details
See when and how this pick was checked
+
See when and how this pick was checked
+- Forecast engine
- The Oracle by Blueprint MMA
- Engine version
- AI debate v1
- Information checked through
- Sep 25, 2026, 1:52 AM UTC
- Published
- Sep 25, 2026, 2:04 AM UTC
- Page data generated
- Oct 26, 2026, 12:15 PM UTC
- Data revision
- 87b8d9597c3d858210342880dafacfaaea488af0aa47b8a365ffb1b99e3492be
Checks made before publication
- • The event and matchup must agree.
- • Each fighter and fight must be uniquely identified.
- • The winner and win probability must be saved before the fight.
- • The website and public data must show the same pick.
Each fight uses one saved, source-linked research file. The engine weighs supporting and contradictory evidence, records uncertainty, and publishes its estimated win probability with the original evidence cutoff.
Authorship, limitations, and corrections
Generated automatically by The Oracle. No individual human reviews each prediction before publication.
Blueprint MMA publishes the report and the Oracle Engine generates it. Sources can be incomplete, outdated, or wrong, and late injuries, cancellations, weigh-in changes, or market movement can change the fight after the displayed cutoff.
Blueprint MMA never equates hit rate with profitability and makes no profit guarantee. Review the methodology, correction policy, settled proof, and current UFC prediction board.