Macy Chiasson vs Ailin Perez — By The Numbers
Model Pick: Ailin Perez (75% confidence via Decision)
Method Probabilities
- KO/TKO: 32%
- Submission: 21%
- Decision: 47%
Statistical Edge
Both fighters bring contrasting skill sets into this matchup. Our 57-module AI engine has analyzed hundreds of data points to produce this breakdown.
The Verdict
Based on comprehensive statistical modeling, Ailin Perez holds the edge in this matchup.
Ailin Perez holds a significant technical edge in the grappling department, which is the primary domain of this matchup. The Grappling Specialist (3.2x weight) highlights her wrestling entries and control as the deciding factor against Chiasson. Although the Vegas Shark suggests the market is overvaluing Perez, the technical specialists are unanimous in their prediction of a decision win for her. Monte Carlo simulations (65.2%) and Bradley-Terry models (65%) support a Perez victory. The final confidence is set at 67% to account for low data trust while still clearing the 64% market hurdle rate.
Analysis powered by The Blueprint MMA War Room Committee Engine
War Room Committee_
War Room Committee Verdict [LOCKED]
You've read the analysis. The War Room Committee's call (winner, method, confidence) is locked behind Sharp.
- Overall accuracy70%· 96 fights
- Calibration gradeC· brier 0.232
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Macy Chiasson vs Ailin Perez?
Ailin Perez won. Blueprint MMA's pre-fight pick was Ailin Perez.
Who wins Macy Chiasson vs Ailin Perez?
Blueprint MMA's War Room Committee picks Ailin Perez with a 75% win probability.
How does Blueprint MMA make this prediction?
Blueprint MMA validates and freezes the fight data, then runs 68 Kimi K2.6 agent executions: 33 Winner, 10 Method, 20 Timing, and 5 non-voting Oversight. Kimi K2.6 is the only inference model; LangGraph only orchestrates stage order and state. Winner agents fix the point probability first, Method and Timing agents fill conditional branches without reopening it, and Oversight audits without voting. The public probability is held to a sane 5-95% range and logged before release. Published winner probabilities are AI-only. Market prices may be shown for benchmarking, CLV, and workflow context, but they do not select, rank, or alter the published forecast. If the direct pipeline cannot return a valid read, the forecast is held. Methodology is documented at https://blueprintmma.com/manifesto and accuracy is tracked publicly at https://blueprintmma.com/track-record.
Methodology and Attribution
Author: War Room Committee Desk
Reviewer: Blueprint MMA Research Desk