Published pick
Marlon Vera vs Charles Jourdain
- Winner
- Charles Jourdain
- Win probability
- 58%
- Strength
- Clearer lean
Why Charles Jourdain
Marlon Vera is Marlon Vera and Charles Jourdain is Charles Jourdain. Jourdain receives the modest overall lean because the best-supported phase is open-space striking: in UFCStats-recorded bouts he lands 5.36 significant strikes per minute versus Vera's 4.18, absorbs 4.11 versus 5.34, and has 56% significant-strike defense versus 50%. At the 2026-09-19 reference date, Vera is 33 and Jourdain is 30.
Generated automatically by The Oracle. No individual human reviews each prediction before publication.
- Engine version
- AI debate v1
- Source cutoff
- Publication lock
Win probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Hit rate is not profitability. Correction policy
Full blueprint outline
See exactly what Sharp opens
The structure is public. Matchup-specific conclusions remain behind the verified access check.
01 · Finish projection
Likely method & round
A conditional finish lane plus the assumptions that could overturn it.
02 · Matchup analysis
Evidence and matchup analysis
Supporting and conflicting evidence, tactical interactions, and the uncertainty behind the pick.
03 and 04 · Decision support
Paths, evidence & limits
Both fighters' win paths, supporting and contradictory receipts, uncertainty, and declared limitations.
Free · Tale of the tape
Tale of the tape
| Marlon Vera | Stat | Charles Jourdain |
|---|---|---|
| 24-12-1 | Record | 18-9-1 |
| 5′8″ · 173 cm | Height | 5′9″ · 175 cm |
| 70″ · 178 cm | Reach | 69″ · 175 cm |
| Switch | Stance | Switch |
Evidence checked through Sep 14, before weigh-ins. Misses, scratches, or replacements announced later are not reflected in this pick.
Result: Marlon Vera beat Charles Jourdain. The pre-fight pick, Charles Jourdain, missed. This is the original pre-fight pick retained after the event. Its settled result appears in the public Track Record.
Publication context
How to read this forecast
This immutable automated forecast covers Marlon Vera vs Charles Jourdain at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 on September 19, 2026. Its public winner, probability, source cutoff, and publication lock remain attached to the matchup for later grading.
A probability is an estimate, not a promise. The 58% estimate still allows the opponent a meaningful upset path, and hit rate must not be treated as evidence of betting profitability.
Publication details
See when and how this pick was checked
+
See when and how this pick was checked
+- Forecast engine
- The Oracle by Blueprint MMA
- Engine version
- AI debate v1
- Information checked through
- Sep 14, 2026, 12:53 AM UTC
- Published
- Sep 14, 2026, 1:17 AM UTC
- Page data generated
- Oct 27, 2026, 1:10 AM UTC
- Data revision
- f27f076d41be940098517fb443dbe960f664d8c516fa78a50c6002855fba2d4f
Checks made before publication
- • The event and matchup must agree.
- • Each fighter and fight must be uniquely identified.
- • The winner and win probability must be saved before the fight.
- • The website and public data must show the same pick.
Each fight uses one saved, source-linked research file. The engine weighs supporting and contradictory evidence, records uncertainty, and publishes its estimated win probability with the original evidence cutoff.
Authorship, limitations, and corrections
Generated automatically by The Oracle. No individual human reviews each prediction before publication.
Blueprint MMA publishes the report and the Oracle Engine generates it. Sources can be incomplete, outdated, or wrong, and late injuries, cancellations, weigh-in changes, or market movement can change the fight after the displayed cutoff.
Blueprint MMA never equates hit rate with profitability and makes no profit guarantee. Review the methodology, correction policy, settled proof, and current UFC prediction board.