01 / Official verdict
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
Morgan Charriere / Felipe Lima
Morgan Charriere
Conditional outcome if the pick wins: KO/TKO · Round 3
50.5%
Near coin flip
30-second blueprint
The whole call at a glance
Winner · strength
Morgan Charriere · 50.5%
Near coin flip
Evidence coverage
7/7 supported
All lenses supported
Lens agreement
2 pick · 5 opponent
0 neutral · 0 abstain
Source cutoff
Aug 30, 2026, 11:25 PM UTC
No unresolved structured conflicts
Leading drivers
- 01Physical · 28.6% effective share
Charriere owns the size profile: 68.1 in height vs 66.1, 68.9 in reach vs 68.1, and a 66 kg listing vs Lima's 61 kg, suggesting the naturally larger featherweight. Both are orthodox, so no stance-angle complication; exchanges run through conventional lead sides. Lima is roughly two years younger (1998 vs 1996) with near-identical reach, partially muting the edge. Net: modest physical advantage to Charriere in length and listed mass, offset by Lima's youth and equivalent frame reach. - 02Statistical · 28.6% effective share
Charriere leads output (4.02 vs 2.86 significant strikes landed per minute), accuracy (50% vs 45%), takedown accuracy (46% vs 27%) and finish rate (76.2% vs 50%). Lima leads every defensive column: 64% vs 53% striking defense, 2.91 vs 4.51 absorbed per minute, 85% vs 83% takedown defense, and 0.7 vs 0.3 submission attempts per 15. Per-minute striking differential tilts to Lima (minus 0.05 vs minus 0.49), and his defensive profile directly counters Charriere's exchange-heavy offense. Slight statistical lean to Lima. - 03Stylistic · 14.3% effective share
Charriere is a high-pace pressure striker: jab to the body, calf kicks, and a power left hook, willing to brawl (Landwehr excerpt). That aggression carries defensive cost, visible in the Costa stoppage and the Wood guillotine-sweep sequence. Lima is a low-output counter-puncher with grappling counters: flying knee, counter right, clinch work, and easy takedowns when opponents reach (Johns, Naimov excerpts). Lima's counter-and-clinch profile matches the disciplined-technician template behind Charriere's ten career decision defeats, giving Lima a slight stylistic edge unless Charriere's power链接s
Upset route · Felipe Lima
- Primary route: Decision: counter striking, range discipline and timed takedowns bank rounds against a hittable, high-absorb opponent.
- Secondary route: Submission from transition: leg entanglement or front-headlock series when Charriere shoots or scrambles.
- Emergency route: Counter KO/TKO: flying knee or counter right lands clean as Charriere rushes in, repeating the Costa outcome.
02 / Matchup analysis
Seven evidence lenses
Effective share reflects the evidence that actually participated. Configured weight remains available in each lens header.
Lens 01 · 14.3% effective share
Stylistic
Configured weight: 20%
Supported
Lens 01 · 14.3% effective share
Stylistic
Configured weight: 20%
Charriere is a high-pace pressure striker: jab to the body, calf kicks, and a power left hook, willing to brawl (Landwehr excerpt). That aggression carries defensive cost, visible in the Costa stoppage and the Wood guillotine-sweep sequence. Lima is a low-output counter-puncher with grappling counters: flying knee, counter right, clinch work, and easy takedowns when opponents reach (Johns, Naimov excerpts). Lima's counter-and-clinch profile matches the disciplined-technician template behind Charriere's ten career decision defeats, giving Lima a slight stylistic edge unless Charriere's power链接s
Uncertainty: Stylistic items are authorized semantic projections of single-bout film excerpts, not independent footage study; neither fighter has faced a close analog of the other, so interaction effects are approximate.
Lens 02 · 28.6% effective share
Physical
Configured weight: 20%
Supported
Lens 02 · 28.6% effective share
Physical
Configured weight: 20%
Charriere owns the size profile: 68.1 in height vs 66.1, 68.9 in reach vs 68.1, and a 66 kg listing vs Lima's 61 kg, suggesting the naturally larger featherweight. Both are orthodox, so no stance-angle complication; exchanges run through conventional lead sides. Lima is roughly two years younger (1998 vs 1996) with near-identical reach, partially muting the edge. Net: modest physical advantage to Charriere in length and listed mass, offset by Lima's youth and equivalent frame reach.
Uncertainty: Listed weights (66 vs 61 kg) may be stale roster data rather than fight-week mass, and the reach gap is under one inch, within listing noise, so the physical edge is real but small.
Lens 03 · 10.7% effective share
Film
Configured weight: 15%
Supported
Lens 03 · 10.7% effective share
Film
Configured weight: 15%
Charriere's recent excerpts show a punishing, varied striking win over Landwehr, a first-round stoppage loss to Costa where he was assisted from the cage, being out-hustled by Wood with his shot caught in a guillotine sweep, and a composed anti-grappling stoppage of Miranda. Lima's excerpts show counters and a snapped-back head kick against Talbott in a loss, an easy takedown plus kicking game against Johns, and a flying knee with leglock threat against Naimov. Lima reads as the cleaner defensive technician; Charriere as the more damaging but more vulnerable striker.
Uncertainty: Four short opponent-specific excerpts per fighter with no shared opponent; the Costa clip dominates the durability read on Charriere, and Lima's best sequences came against reaching opponents Charriere may not emulate.
Lens 04 · 28.6% effective share
Statistical
Configured weight: 20%
Supported
Lens 04 · 28.6% effective share
Statistical
Configured weight: 20%
Charriere leads output (4.02 vs 2.86 significant strikes landed per minute), accuracy (50% vs 45%), takedown accuracy (46% vs 27%) and finish rate (76.2% vs 50%). Lima leads every defensive column: 64% vs 53% striking defense, 2.91 vs 4.51 absorbed per minute, 85% vs 83% takedown defense, and 0.7 vs 0.3 submission attempts per 15. Per-minute striking differential tilts to Lima (minus 0.05 vs minus 0.49), and his defensive profile directly counters Charriere's exchange-heavy offense. Slight statistical lean to Lima.
Uncertainty: Career aggregates mix pre-prime and current bouts over unequal samples; Charriere's absorb rate is inflated by brawls he still won, and Lima's defensive numbers came against lower-output opponents.
Lens 05 · 7.9% effective share
Trajectory
Configured weight: 11%
Supported
Lens 05 · 7.9% effective share
Trajectory
Configured weight: 11%
Charriere is 2-3 across his last five with a first-round KO loss to Costa most recent, following the Landwehr stoppage win and the Wood decision loss; his 21-12-1 ledger shows ten decision defeats and a Glicko of 1724. Lima is 14-2, 2-1 in his last three UFC outings (Johns decision win, Naimov submission win, Talbott decision loss), never stopped by strikes, with a Glicko of 1911 and the stronger recent-performance index. Form, rating, and career direction all favor Lima, though his deviation is wide.
Uncertainty: Lima's high rating deviation reflects limited linked history, and Charriere's 34-bout ledger spans multiple promotions, so both trend lines are coarser than the raw records imply.
Lens 06 · 5% effective share
Situational
Configured weight: 7%
Supported
Lens 06 · 5% effective share
Situational
Configured weight: 7%
Booking terms are symmetric: same card slot, same 20-day short notice for both fighters, so no camp-length edge exists. Differentiators sit with Charriere: the bout is in Paris and he is documented as the Frenchman in this pairing, his last bout (Dec 2025) is roughly six months more recent than Lima's (Jun 2025), and he holds 34 recorded pro bouts with three five-round exposures against Lima's 16 and one. Weigh-in is unverified for both. Modest situational lean to Charriere.
Uncertainty: Crowd influence is inferred from venue plus nationality mention rather than measured; unverified weigh-in and identical notice leave this layer thin.
Lens 07 · 5% effective share
Preparation
Configured weight: 7%
Supported
Lens 07 · 5% effective share
Preparation
Configured weight: 7%
Preparation evidence is sparse and near-symmetric. Charriere is listed with Team Chapa Quente only; Lima is listed with Allstars Training Center plus a named head coach, Andreas Michael, giving Lima the richer documented corner structure. Both fighters share identical 20-day notice, so neither held a full camp block. With nothing on sparring, injuries, or camp quality in the packet, this lens sits near parity with a marginal nod to Lima's documented coaching.
Uncertainty: Only gym and head-coach labels exist, with no camp-quality, health, or sparring reporting, so any lean rests on documentation depth rather than measured preparation.
03 / Fight paths
How each fighter wins
Paths to victory
Morgan Charriere
Primary route
Early KO/TKO: pressure boxing, calf kicks and power hooks force a stoppage inside three rounds.
- Access:
- Close distance behind the jab and body work to turn Lima's low-output counter game into extended exchanges where Charriere's 4.02-per-minute output and 76.2% finish rate apply.
- Denied if:
- Deny Lima clean counter windows and level-change entries; cut the cage so his 64% striking defense cannot reset range.
Secondary route
Decision by volume: out-land Lima across three rounds with the jab, low kicks and cage pressure.
- Access:
- Sustain four-plus significant strikes per minute while mixing 46%-accuracy takedown threats so Lima cannot settle into counter rhythm.
- Denied if:
- Deny the easy takedowns Lima took off reaching opponents by keeping hips back and firing combinations instead of single shots.
Emergency route
Opportunistic submission or ground-and-pound stoppage if a scramble produces front-headlock or top position.
- Access:
- Force scrambles off Lima's 27%-accuracy shot attempts and counter with front-headlock control, as when he turned Miranda against the fence.
- Denied if:
- Deny Lima top control and the leg-entanglement phases he threatened against Naimov; avoid extended bottom time against a 0.7-per-15 submission rate.
Paths to victory
Felipe Lima
Primary route
Decision: counter striking, range discipline and timed takedowns bank rounds against a hittable, high-absorb opponent.
- Access:
- Hold long range, counter Charriere's 4.51-absorbed-per-minute, 53%-defense entries, and add level changes whenever he overcommits forward.
- Denied if:
- Deny Charriere the brawl: clinch or exit after each counter and never trade in long combinations against the owner of 13 KO wins.
Secondary route
Submission from transition: leg entanglement or front-headlock series when Charriere shoots or scrambles.
- Access:
- Counter Charriere's takedown entries, the same entries Wood caught with a guillotine sweep, and chain toward back or leg control.
- Denied if:
- Deny Charriere top pressure and stand-ups; keep grappling in open-guard or leg-attacking phases rather than fence rides.
Emergency route
Counter KO/TKO: flying knee or counter right lands clean as Charriere rushes in, repeating the Costa outcome.
- Access:
- Time Charriere's linear entries with the knee and counter right shown against Naimov and Talbott; requires Charriere to lead recklessly.
- Denied if:
- Deny Charriere recovery exchanges: after hurting him, swarm immediately, since Lima rarely finishes at UFC level and cannot let him reset.
04 / Audit trail
Sources, conflicts, and limitations
04 / Audit trail
Sources, conflicts, and limitations
Receipt-backed sources
- https://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/5b03b61f9d90125eRetrieved 8/30/2026
- https://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/9256f591b30c073eRetrieved 6/5/2026
- https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Felipe-Lima-205627Retrieved 8/16/2026
- https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Morgan-Charriere-186243Retrieved 8/30/2026
- https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC-317-Topuria-vs-Oliveira-PlaybyPlay-Results-Round-Scoring-197495Retrieved 8/30/2026
- https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC-Fight-Night-243-Moicano-vs-St-Denis-PlaybyPlay-Results-Round-Scoring-195090Retrieved 8/30/2026
- https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC-London-Edwards-vs-Brady-PlaybyPlay-Results-Round-Scoring-196456Retrieved 8/30/2026
- https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC-Nashville-Lewis-vs-Teixeira-PlaybyPlay-Results-Round-Scoring-197663Retrieved 8/30/2026
- https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC-on-ABC-6-Whittaker-vs-Aliskerov-PlaybyPlay-Results-Round-Scoring-194118Retrieved 8/30/2026
- https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC-on-ESPN-63-Covington-vs-Buckley-PlaybyPlay-Results-Round-Scoring-195715Retrieved 8/30/2026
- https://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-fight-night-september-05-2026Retrieved 8/30/2026
Unavailable evidence
- None declared.
Unresolved conflicts
None declared.
Limitations
- • Method splits are calibrated from career method profiles and documented UFC routes, not opponent-specific simulation.
- • Final-round hazards are set to 1 by the absorbing convention and do not assert a finish is certain.
- • Lima's UFC finish sample is small; his KO lane leans on pre-UFC stoppages and counter-film moments.
- • Charriere's submission lane rests on pre-2019 results and a 0.3 attempt rate, so it carries thin support.
