Otari Tanzilovi vs Shane Collins, UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi prediction and deep analysis
Otari Tanzilovi/Shane Collins
FeatherweightWinner Committee
Thirty-three specialists answer distinct winner-only questions. Eligible evidence is renormalized only inside its original lane.
Fight-State Projection
These are distributions of eligible committee signal mass—not invented percentages of fight time.
Conditional Method Model
Each row is conditional on that fighter already winning; every fighter row sums to 100%.
Conditional Round Model
Round-event mass is derived from survival-conditioned hazards. The final scheduled round is absorbing.
Probability Reconciliation
The exact-outcome grid preserves both winner marginals and sums to 100%. Decision branches have no round.
Output Selection
The winner and every outcome label come from one immutable reconciled distribution. Oversight may widen uncertainty, never move the point forecast.
Key Takeaways
- The War Room Committee picks Shane Collins (57% win probability).
- Otari Tanzilovi path. "Volume striking to decision": Establish jab rhythm early to test Collins's unknown defense
- Shane Collins path. "Aggressive grappling exchanges": Close distance before Tanzilovi finds range
- Risk: Short-notice cardio collapse
- Risk: Layoff timing asymmetry
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Otari Tanzilovi vs Shane Collins?
Shane Collins won. Blueprint MMA's pre-fight pick was Shane Collins.
Who wins Otari Tanzilovi vs Shane Collins?
Blueprint MMA's War Room Committee picks Shane Collins with a 57% win probability.
What could change the outcome of Otari Tanzilovi vs Shane Collins?
Short-notice cardio collapse: Both fighters accepted on six days' notice with no weight-cut history; either man's gas tank could empty abruptly, turning a competitive fight into a one-sided survival bout. Layoff timing asymmetry: Tanzilovi's extended activity gap versus Collins's active 2026 campaign creates a readiness gap that could widen if the first round does not go to plan. Null defensive baselines: Collins has no recorded striking defense metrics and Tanzilovi's volume numbers are unverified against an unknown chin; one clean connection could reframe the entire matchup.
How does Blueprint MMA make this prediction?
Blueprint MMA validates and freezes the fight data, then runs 68 Kimi K2.6 agent executions: 33 Winner, 10 Method, 20 Timing, and 5 non-voting Oversight. Kimi K2.6 is the only inference model; LangGraph only orchestrates stage order and state. Winner agents fix the point probability first, Method and Timing agents fill conditional branches without reopening it, and Oversight audits without voting. The public probability is held to a sane 5-95% range and logged before release. Published winner probabilities are AI-only. Market prices may be shown for benchmarking, CLV, and workflow context, but they do not select, rank, or alter the published forecast. If the direct pipeline cannot return a valid read, the forecast is held. Methodology is documented at https://blueprintmma.com/manifesto and accuracy is tracked publicly at https://blueprintmma.com/track-record.