01 / Official verdict
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
Oumar Sy / Modestas Bukauskas
Oumar Sy
Conditional outcome if the pick wins: KO/TKO · Round 1
53.2%
Slight lean
30-second blueprint
The whole call at a glance
Winner · strength
Oumar Sy · 53.2%
Slight lean
Evidence coverage
7/7 supported
All lenses supported
Lens agreement
2 pick · 4 opponent
1 neutral · 0 abstain
Source cutoff
Aug 30, 2026, 10:24 PM UTC
No unresolved structured conflicts
Leading drivers
- 01Physical · 28.6% effective share
Sy holds the decisive measurable edges: 83.1-inch reach versus 76, and 76-inch height versus 75.2, at equal listed weight of 93 kg. Ages are comparable (1996 versus 1994 births). Bukauskas's switch stance offers varied looks to offset range, but raw length favors Sy's jab-cross game, straight-line defense, and ability to keep exchanges at the end of his punches where Bukauskas's kicking entries must travel further. - 02Statistical · 28.6% effective share
Sy owns the stronger differentials: 3.41 versus 3.14 significant strikes landed per minute, 1.87 versus 3.86 absorbed, 48% versus 43% accuracy, and 66% versus 50% striking defense, plus 2.45 takedowns per 15 minutes. Bukauskas counters with 82% takedown defense, 66% takedown accuracy, and a 0.03 knockdowns-absorbed rate. Net striking and minute-winning metrics lean Sy, but his 35% takedown accuracy projects poorly into Bukauskas's best defensive number. - 03Stylistic · 14.3% effective share
Bukauskas profiles as a switch-stance sprawl-and-brawl kicker: documented fence takedown denials versus Krylov and Cutelaba, calf and head-kick offense, check-hook counters, and fight-ending ground-and-pound. Sy's single authorized style view is the Cutelaba bout, where a failed entry preceded a mounted-guillotine loss. Sy's primary phase entry (wrestling) runs into Bukauskas's strongest documented phase (fence defense and reversals), so the stylistic exchange leans Bukauskas unless Sy wins pure long-range striking minutes.
Upset route · Modestas Bukauskas
- Primary route: Sprawl-and-brawl knockout, replicating the Craig and Cerqueira finishes.
- Secondary route: Front-headlock punishment or top-side finish after a stuffed shot.
- Emergency route: Veteran three-round decision through pace management and clinch control.
02 / Matchup analysis
Seven evidence lenses
Effective share reflects the evidence that actually participated. Configured weight remains available in each lens header.
Lens 01 · 14.3% effective share
Stylistic
Configured weight: 20%
Supported
Lens 01 · 14.3% effective share
Stylistic
Configured weight: 20%
Bukauskas profiles as a switch-stance sprawl-and-brawl kicker: documented fence takedown denials versus Krylov and Cutelaba, calf and head-kick offense, check-hook counters, and fight-ending ground-and-pound. Sy's single authorized style view is the Cutelaba bout, where a failed entry preceded a mounted-guillotine loss. Sy's primary phase entry (wrestling) runs into Bukauskas's strongest documented phase (fence defense and reversals), so the stylistic exchange leans Bukauskas unless Sy wins pure long-range striking minutes.
Uncertainty: Style reads rest on correlation-declared views of documented bouts; Sy has exactly one such view (a loss), so his current stylistic form is thinly evidenced relative to Bukauskas's five-bout sample.
Lens 02 · 28.6% effective share
Physical
Configured weight: 20%
Supported
Lens 02 · 28.6% effective share
Physical
Configured weight: 20%
Sy holds the decisive measurable edges: 83.1-inch reach versus 76, and 76-inch height versus 75.2, at equal listed weight of 93 kg. Ages are comparable (1996 versus 1994 births). Bukauskas's switch stance offers varied looks to offset range, but raw length favors Sy's jab-cross game, straight-line defense, and ability to keep exchanges at the end of his punches where Bukauskas's kicking entries must travel further.
Uncertainty: Static measurements only; the packet contains no reach-usage or range-control fight data, and the weigh-in is not yet verified, so same-day size parity is assumed, not confirmed.
Lens 03 · 10.7% effective share
Film
Configured weight: 15%
Supported
Lens 03 · 10.7% effective share
Film
Configured weight: 15%
Bukauskas's documented footage shows repeatable fence takedown defense against Krylov and Cutelaba, a reversal to top control against Krylov, check-hook counters, and a ground-and-pound finish of Craig. Sy's only documented bout shows a failed takedown, 18 seconds of control against, and a round-one mounted-guillotine loss to Cutelaba. The tape supports Bukauskas's defensive grappling, scrambling, and finishing instincts over Sy's current wrestling entries.
Uncertainty: Film volume is one-sided: five Bukauskas observations versus a single Sy observation that happens to be his loss, so part of the lean reflects sample asymmetry rather than confirmed superiority.
Lens 04 · 28.6% effective share
Statistical
Configured weight: 20%
Supported
Lens 04 · 28.6% effective share
Statistical
Configured weight: 20%
Sy owns the stronger differentials: 3.41 versus 3.14 significant strikes landed per minute, 1.87 versus 3.86 absorbed, 48% versus 43% accuracy, and 66% versus 50% striking defense, plus 2.45 takedowns per 15 minutes. Bukauskas counters with 82% takedown defense, 66% takedown accuracy, and a 0.03 knockdowns-absorbed rate. Net striking and minute-winning metrics lean Sy, but his 35% takedown accuracy projects poorly into Bukauskas's best defensive number.
Uncertainty: Sy's metrics sit on an 11-fight UFC sample skewed by short fights (388-second average), which can inflate both his defensive rate and his finish-heavy profile.
Lens 05 · 7.9% effective share
Trajectory
Configured weight: 11%
Supported
Lens 05 · 7.9% effective share
Trajectory
Configured weight: 11%
Bukauskas rides the better arc: five wins across his last six documented results, including Cutelaba, Craig, and Edwards, against Sy's 3-2 stretch ending in a March submission loss. The shared opponent splits for Bukauskas (decision win) against Sy (round-one submission loss). Internal ratings are near-even (elo 1599 versus 1576) but Bukauskas holds the higher recent-performance mark (0.639 versus 0.561) over a deeper schedule.
Uncertainty: Both ratings carry wide deviations (142 versus 106) and Sy's early regional results dominate his sample, so the trajectory gap is real but narrow and opponent-quality dependent.
Lens 06 · 5% effective share
Situational
Configured weight: 7%
Supported
Lens 06 · 5% effective share
Situational
Configured weight: 7%
Both fighters accepted on six days' notice, so preparation symmetry holds. Bukauskas brings deeper UFC seasoning (19 versus 11 bouts), more total fights (27 versus 14), two five-round exposures versus zero (marginal in a three-rounder), and the more recent activity (May 16 versus March 14). Sy instead benefits from a longer rest window into the short camp. Net slight lean to Bukauskas on experience density and competitive rhythm.
Uncertainty: Paris venue with unverified weigh-in and no travel or acclimation data for either fighter; Sy's layoff cuts both ways, and short notice compresses any game-plan edge.
Lens 07 · 5% effective share
Preparation
Configured weight: 7%
Supported
Lens 07 · 5% effective share
Preparation
Configured weight: 7%
Sy is currently listed with Bulgarian Top Team, but the packet retains a conflicting camp record (Dennis Davis / Xtreme Couture lineage), so his present corner is not cleanly resolved. Bukauskas is cleanly mapped to Gintas Combat / BST Academy. Both camps operate on a six-day runway, truncating any structured camp. No verified injury or weight-cut information exists for either side, leaving the category effectively even with a resolution-quality caveat on Sy's side.
Uncertainty: Sy's team and coach records conflict within the packet and both camps are truncated by the short booking; no sparring, health, or weight-management intel is available for either fighter.
03 / Fight paths
How each fighter wins
Paths to victory
Oumar Sy
Primary route
Long-range knockout: straight shots behind the 83.1-inch reach into Bukauskas's porous 50% striking defense and 3.86 absorbed per minute.
- Access:
- Hold center, work jab-cross at full extension, counter his kicking entries; target a chin with five prior knockout losses.
- Denied if:
- Bukauskas must deny range with calf kicks, stance switches, and clinch pressure before extended exchanges develop.
Secondary route
Chain-wrestle top game ending in ground-and-pound or a choke, mirroring his Tokkos and regional submission wins.
- Access:
- Level-change behind the jab (2.45 takedowns per 15), ride top position, advance toward mount or back exposure.
- Denied if:
- Bukauskas's 82% takedown defense and documented fence reversals must stuff entries and force stand-ups.
Emergency route
Three-round minute-winning decision built on superior striking differential.
- Access:
- Sustain 3.41 landed versus 1.87 absorbed per minute at distance and bank clean rounds.
- Denied if:
- Bukauskas must force a chaotic brawl or an early finish before the cards become relevant.
Paths to victory
Modestas Bukauskas
Primary route
Sprawl-and-brawl knockout, replicating the Craig and Cerqueira finishes.
- Access:
- Stuff Sy's takedowns at the fence, answer with check hooks, kicks, and ground-and-pound once on top.
- Denied if:
- Sy must deny extended exchanges with straight-line exits and disciplined jab-only engagements at long range.
Secondary route
Front-headlock punishment or top-side finish after a stuffed shot.
- Access:
- Catch Sy's frequent entries (2.45 per 15 at 35% accuracy) in the front headlock; Sy lost by mounted guillotine in March.
- Denied if:
- Sy must shoot only behind strikes and abandon naked entries to keep phases standing.
Emergency route
Veteran three-round decision through pace management and clinch control.
- Access:
- Manage tempo (548-second average fight time, five-round experience) and bank rounds with kicks and fence work.
- Denied if:
- Sy must deny the cards by forcing an early finish before minute accumulation matters.
04 / Audit trail
Sources, conflicts, and limitations
04 / Audit trail
Sources, conflicts, and limitations
Receipt-backed sources
- https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/story/sports/ufc/2025/09/06/ufc-paris-video-modestas-bukauskas-ko-paul-craig-retires/86018466007/Retrieved 8/18/2026
- https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/story/sports/ufc/2026/01/24/ufc-324-justin-gaethje-vs-paddy-pimblett-interim-lightweight-title-fight-live-updates-results/88335669007/Retrieved 8/17/2026
- https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/story/sports/ufc/2026/03/14/ufc-fight-night-las-vegas-114-josh-emmett-vs-kevin-vallejos-live-updates-results/89150229007/Retrieved 8/30/2026
- https://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/46e2011d92463b7eRetrieved 6/11/2026
- https://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/476fe566d2df676eRetrieved 8/30/2026
- https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Modestas-Bukauskas-152163Retrieved 8/30/2026
- https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Oumar-Sy-310239Retrieved 8/16/2026
- https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC-315-Muhammad-vs-Della-Maddalena-PlaybyPlay-Results-Round-Scoring-196903Retrieved 8/30/2026
- https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC-324-Gaethje-vs-Pimblett-PlaybyPlay-Results-Round-Scoring-199858Retrieved 8/30/2026
- https://www.ufc.com/athlete/modestas-bukauskasRetrieved 8/30/2026
- https://www.ufc.com/athlete/oumar-syRetrieved 8/30/2026
Unavailable evidence
- None declared.
Unresolved conflicts
None declared.
Limitations
- • Methods are derived from documented routes (impact delivery plus opponent defensive failure), not from finish totals alone.
- • Sy's submission lane rests on older regional results and one UFC choke win; recent film shows his own defensive lapse instead.
- • Bukauskas's submission route is narrow (0.1 attempts per 15) despite Sy's March guillotine loss, so it stays the lowest lane.
- • Round-three hazard is fixed at 1 as the absorbing terminal round; decisions resolve there by definition.
- • Six-day notice for both fighters raises early-finish variance beyond what the documented base rates show.
