Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio, UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland prediction and deep analysis
Roman Kopylov/Marco Tulio
middleweightWinner Committee
Thirty-three specialists answer distinct winner-only questions. Eligible evidence is renormalized only inside its original lane.
Fight-State Projection
These are distributions of eligible committee signal mass—not invented percentages of fight time.
Conditional Method Model
Each row is conditional on that fighter already winning; every fighter row sums to 100%.
Conditional Round Model
Round-event mass is derived from survival-conditioned hazards. The final scheduled round is absorbing.
Probability Reconciliation
The exact-outcome grid preserves both winner marginals and sums to 100%. Decision branches have no round.
Output Selection
The winner and every outcome label come from one immutable reconciled distribution. Oversight may widen uncertainty, never move the point forecast.
Key Takeaways
- The War Room Committee picks Marco Tulio (55% win probability).
- Marco Tulio path. "Early pace, right hand down the middle": Use the R1 pace edge to establish the jab and force Kopylov to load the left hand earlier than he wants
- Roman Kopylov path. "Patient southpaw counter, one clean left": Establish lead-hand range early without over-committing — let Tulio's R1 pace pull him onto the left straight
- Risk: Tulio chin question
- Risk: Kopylov age and back-to-back losses
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio?
Roman Kopylov won. Blueprint MMA's pre-fight pick was Marco Tulio.
Who wins Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio?
Blueprint MMA's War Room Committee picks Marco Tulio with a 55% win probability.
What could change the outcome of Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio?
Tulio chin question: The Duncan knockout in November 2025 is the first clean stoppage on Tulio's record, and Kopylov is exactly the one-shot finisher who exploits a freshly cracked chin. Kopylov age and back-to-back losses: Two straight decision losses at 34 against pressure opposition raises the question of whether the southpaw timing has slipped a half-step — Tulio's freshness and pace exploit that directly. Level-of-competition gap: Tulio's finish run came against materially weaker opposition than Kopylov has tested against; if that gap is real, the price on Tulio is too short.
How does Blueprint MMA make this prediction?
Blueprint MMA validates and freezes the fight data, then runs 68 Kimi K2.6 agent executions: 33 Winner, 10 Method, 20 Timing, and 5 non-voting Oversight. Kimi K2.6 is the only inference model; LangGraph only orchestrates stage order and state. Winner agents fix the point probability first, Method and Timing agents fill conditional branches without reopening it, and Oversight audits without voting. The public probability is held to a sane 5-95% range and logged before release. Published winner probabilities are AI-only. Market prices may be shown for benchmarking, CLV, and workflow context, but they do not select, rank, or alter the published forecast. If the direct pipeline cannot return a valid read, the forecast is held. Methodology is documented at https://blueprintmma.com/manifesto and accuracy is tracked publicly at https://blueprintmma.com/track-record.