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What members read before the fight

Result: Tommy McMillen beat Marwan Rahiki. The pick, Tommy McMillen, was correct. The full breakdown below is unchanged from its publication on September 8, 2026. Every fight opens like this once it is graded.

Read this week's card before it starts

Full fight blueprint

Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki

Forecast winner

Tommy McMillen · 51.0%

Fair price -104 · the odds at which this probability breaks even, before the book's margin.

McMillen receives a narrow overall lean because his reach, documented volume, fence pressure, recovery after being hurt, and demonstrated three-round minute-winning route provide more than one supported path. Rahiki keeps the matchup close through a particularly coherent counter-KO route: he has repeatedly won by KO/TKO, has produced a documented counter knockdown, and McMillen has been stunned or dropped during committed exchanges. McMillen's recoveries prevent treating those moments as established poor durability, while Rahiki's unbeaten history leaves his own finish vulnerability unresolved. Consequently, decision narrowly leads McMillen's conditional methods, whereas KO/TKO strongly leads Rahiki's. Both fighters' documented method histories are retained: McMillen has wins by KO/TKO, submission and decision; Rahiki has wins by KO/TKO and submission, while his missing decision win is treated as uncertainty rather than impossibility.

Method, if Tommy McMillen wins
Decision · 47.0%

This exact winner, method and round combination has a 24.0% probability.

Most likely individual outcome: Tommy McMillen by Decision · 24.0%.

Against the result: winner correct.

Every way this fight ends

Probabilities for each fighter and method, from the same forecast as the pick above. They add up to 100%. Under each one is its fair price: the odds at which it breaks even, before the book's margin.

Tommy McMillen51.0%

KO/TKO
22.9%
+336
Submission
4.1%
+2351
Decision
24.0%
+317

Marwan Rahiki49.0%

KO/TKO
42.1%
+137
Submission
1.5%
+6703
Decision
5.4%
+1755
Goes the distance
29.4% · finish 70.6%
Finish by round
R1 36.4% · R2 16.2% · R3 18.1%

Fighter A · Advocate brief

Tommy McMillen’s case

Tommy McMillen’s clearest path is to maintain long-range, high-volume striking, pressure Rahiki toward the fence, and convert accumulated openings into a KO/TKO. McMillen has documented success combining body and head attacks, cage pressure, knees, and follow-up combinations, while his historical record includes five KO/TKO wins; Rahiki’s documented film also shows missed spinning attacks and recovery into defensive positions after being hurt.

Sources [1][2][3][4][5]

How the path opens

McMillen has a documented physical and positional route to striking access: he is listed at 74 inches of reach versus Rahiki’s 72, has recorded high striking output, and has repeatedly used combinations, body work, knees, and fence pressure in documented bouts. Rahiki has been shown countering cleanly and landing damaging kicks, but the available evidence supports McMillen making the fight occur at his preferred striking range rather than relying on takedowns.

Opponent’s response

McMillen can deny Rahiki’s preferred counter-finishing route by avoiding reckless entries, keeping Rahiki at the end of combinations, and forcing fence exchanges where McMillen has documented offensive success. McMillen also has an 83% recorded takedown-defense rate and has been documented stuffing a takedown attempt, which helps prevent Rahiki from changing the fight’s phase.

Where the case fails

The McMillen case fails if Rahiki consistently intercepts McMillen’s combinations with clean counters, forces grappling exchanges, or lands a fight-changing shot before McMillen’s pressure and volume accumulate. The evidence does not establish McMillen as a reliable takedown-based winner, and Rahiki has a documented unbeaten record with eight KO/TKO wins, so McMillen’s route depends on disciplined striking access rather than assuming durability will always hold.

Evidence against the case

Rahiki’s strongest contrary case is his documented finishing history and recent evidence of dangerous counter-striking: he has eight recorded KO/TKO wins, stopped Oliver Schmid and Harry Hardwick, and was documented hurting opponents with clean counters and heavy shots. McMillen’s own recent film includes being dropped or stunned by clean punches before recovering, so Rahiki’s counter-finishing threat directly challenges a pressure-first McMillen approach.

Sources [6][7][8][9][10][1]

Fighter B · Advocate brief

Marwan Rahiki’s case

Rahiki’s strongest route is a counter-striking finish: draw McMillen’s aggressive entries, intercept them with the clean counter left and other power shots, then capitalize on the damage. Rahiki has documented KO/TKO wins and recent film showing a clean counter left producing a knockdown, while McMillen has been documented committing to combinations and being dropped during exchanges.

Sources [9][11][1][12]

How the path opens

Rahiki has demonstrated access to McMillen’s likely entry line through clean counters and damaging straight or power attacks; his documented eight KO/TKO wins support the finishing endpoint. McMillen’s recorded pressure, combinations, and forward pursuit create opportunities but also expose him during entries.

Opponent’s response

Rahiki should deny McMillen’s preferred pressure by maintaining striking distance, punishing combinations on the entry, and avoiding prolonged fence exchanges. The documented evidence supports Rahiki’s counter access and McMillen’s cage-pressure offense, but it does not establish that Rahiki can consistently stop every clinch or extended wall sequence.

Where the case fails

The Rahiki case fails if McMillen repeatedly survives the counters, forces Rahiki to the fence, and sustains his combination volume long enough to turn the fight into extended pressure or attritional striking. McMillen has documented high-volume offense and repeated recovery after being hurt, while Rahiki’s supplied film does not document sufficient takedown or prolonged-control defense to erase that risk.

Evidence against the case

The strongest counterevidence is McMillen’s documented combination volume, cage pressure, recovery after knockdowns, and recent KO/TKO success. Rahiki also has a documented submission win, but the supplied evidence does not show a matchup-specific grappling route against McMillen; his decision history contains no documented win, so a decision-based path is unsupported rather than impossible.

Sources [1][2][4][6][13]

Adjudicator assessment

Which tactics take precedence?

Open space

Edge: Even

Tommy McMillen has the longer listed reach and documented high-output combinations, while Marwan Rahiki has documented access through clean counters, body attacks and spinning kicks. Both can reach their offense, but neither record establishes sustained open-space control over the other.

McMillen's pressure can reduce Rahiki's space, but his entries have also been intercepted. Rahiki can punish entries, although the evidence file does not show that he can consistently prevent McMillen from building volume.

Sources [14][15][16][9][17][1]

Against the fence

Edge: Tommy McMillen

McMillen has documented sequences pushing opponents to the fence, landing knees, and pinning an opponent with body-to-head combinations. Rahiki was documented being driven to the cage after hurting an opponent.

Rahiki's counter threat can interrupt McMillen before fence position is established, but there is no supplied evidence that Rahiki consistently escapes or reverses sustained wall pressure. McMillen's fence offense is therefore the clearer maintained positional route.

Sources [2][10][1][18]

On the ground

Edge: Not established

McMillen has documented submission wins but current statistics show no takedowns landed per 15 minutes; Rahiki has one documented submission win, but the evidence file supplies no matchup-specific entry or maintained-control route for him.

McMillen's recorded takedown defense provides some defensive context, but the evidence file lacks sufficient ground-control, escape and submission-defense observations for both fighters.

Sources [19][18][20][13]

Arguments that did not hold up

Tommy McMillen: Path to victory

McMillen's pressure and impact delivery are supported, but a leading KO/TKO premise also requires supported Rahiki defensive or durability failure. Rahiki's record contains no documented loss, and the supplied observations do not show him being finished or failing to recover; therefore McMillen KO/TKO remains plausible but is not established as his clearest route.

Sources [6][9][10]

Tommy McMillen: Opponent’s response

Avoiding reckless entries and keeping Rahiki at range are tactical prescriptions, not demonstrated denial. McMillen has been stunned or dropped during exchanges, while Rahiki has documented clean counter access.

Sources [2][9][1]

Marwan Rahiki: Opponent’s response

Rahiki's countering can interrupt pressure, but the evidence file does not establish consistent fence avoidance or escape. McMillen has maintained wall offense, and Rahiki has been driven to the cage after landing damage.

Sources [2][10][1]

Uncertainty and probability treatment

Rahiki has no supplied profile-performance statistics comparable to McMillen's, limiting symmetric statistical assessment.

The documented fight observations concern prior opponents, not direct McMillen-Rahiki exchanges.

Ground entry, maintained control, escape and submission-defense evidence is sparse for both fighters, so the ground edge is unknown.

Rahiki has no documented decision win, but this does not make a decision victory impossible; its conditional probability remains a residual possibility.

The scheduled weigh-in was not completed or verified in the evidence file.

Current-team evidence contains retained conflicts and was not used to create a tactical edge.

The supplied evidence file provides documented observations and career aggregates but no verified direct matchup evidence between McMillen and Rahiki.

McMillen’s takedown-defense statistic supports defensive access control, not a guarantee against Rahiki’s grappling or scrambles.

Historical method counts are overlapping career observations, not independent matchup probabilities.

The evidence file contains retained conflicts about both fighters’ current teams; those conflicts are not used to support the asserted edge.

The evidence file documents both fighters’ historical methods, but does not provide matchup-specific attempts, defensive sequences, or verified visual footage beyond the supplied play-by-play observations.

Rahiki’s documented decision-win count is zero; this does not establish impossibility, but the supplied evidence does not support a decision as his leading route.

Team evidence is conflicted for both fighters and is not used to establish a tactical edge.

The fight is scheduled for three rounds, and weigh-in status is not completed or verified in the supplied booking evidence.

These are raw AI probabilities. Historical wins establish a baseline: a documented winning method retains at least 1% probability conditional on that fighter winning. Recent tactical trends can reduce that probability, but cannot erase it.

Ask about this fight

Answers come only from the analysis on this page and cite its numbered sources. They explain the forecast; they do not change it.

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Sources (20)
  1. [1] Sherdog · Tommy McMillen
  2. [2] Sherdog · Tommy McMillen
  3. [3] Sherdog · Tommy McMillen
  4. [4] Sherdog · Tommy McMillen
  5. [5] Sherdog · Marwan Rahiki
  6. [6] Sherdog · Marwan Rahiki
  7. [7] Sherdog · Marwan Rahiki
  8. [8] Sherdog · Marwan Rahiki
  9. [9] Sherdog · Marwan Rahiki
  10. [10] Sherdog · Marwan Rahiki
  11. [11] Sherdog · Marwan Rahiki
  12. [12] Sherdog · Marwan Rahiki
  13. [13] Sherdog · Marwan Rahiki
  14. [14] UFCStats · Tommy McMillen
  15. [15] UFC.com · Marwan Rahiki
  16. [16] UFCStats · Tommy McMillen
  17. [17] Sherdog · Marwan Rahiki
  18. [18] UFCStats · Tommy McMillen
  19. [19] UFCStats · Tommy McMillen
  20. [20] Sherdog · Tommy McMillen

Free · Tale of the tape

Tale of the tape

Tommy McMillenStatMarwan Rahiki
12-0-0Record9-1-0
6′0″ · 183 cmHeight5′8″ · 173 cm
74″ · 188 cmReach72″ · 183 cm
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox

Evidence checked through Sep 8, before weigh-ins. Misses, scratches, or replacements announced later are not reflected in this pick.

Result: Tommy McMillen beat Marwan Rahiki. The pre-fight pick, Tommy McMillen, was correct. This is the original pre-fight pick retained after the event. Its settled result appears in the public Track Record.

Authorship, limitations, and corrections

Generated automatically by The Oracle. No individual human reviews each prediction before publication.

Blueprint MMA publishes the report and the Oracle Engine generates it. Sources can be incomplete, outdated, or wrong, and late injuries, cancellations, weigh-in changes, or market movement can change the fight after the displayed cutoff.

Blueprint MMA never equates hit rate with profitability and makes no profit guarantee. Review the methodology, correction policy, settled proof, and current UFC prediction board.